Kerala contest becomes Vijayan ‘referendum’, UDF rides on ‘anti-incumbency’ for comeback
LDF centres its campaign on development, calls Congress-led Opposition's previous regime a “dark period”; BJP emerges as a significant player, focuses on a select set of seats
The LDF’s central election planks have been infrastructure growth, welfare measures and continuity. PTI As all 140 Assembly seats of Kerala head to the polls Thursday, the central question playing out is whether voters would endorse a government that claims to have transformed the state in its 10-year rule or would they opt for a change.
The results, which would be announced on May 4, will hinge on multiple political and social factors.
The ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) government led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has revolved its campaign around development while terming the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) rule between 2011 and 2016 as a “dark period”. Some of the LDF’s central election planks have been infrastructure growth, welfare measures and continuity.
On the other hand, the UDF has sought to capitalise on “anti-incumbency” sentiments, arguing that a decade in power has led to governance fatigue and unaddressed public grievances.
Despite previous elections being centered around anti-incumbency, the campaign this time has seen the Opposition also coming under scrutiny. The Congress has come under attack from the CPI(M) over its failure to construct houses for the victims of the 2024 Wayanad landslide, despite raising funds for it. The allegations forced the Congress on the defensive, prompting it to disclose collected funds.
The LDF’s narrative about the UDF regime’s “dark period” had turned the campaign into a comparison rather than a referendum on the Vijayan government.
The Sabarimala gold theft scandal, which figured prominently in the December 2025 local body elections, was back again in the run-up to the Assembly elections, albeit in a subdued manner. The Congress was at the forefront in raising the issue, with the BJP drawing criticism for not taking forward the issue despite the party’s election slogan being “protection of faith”.
Results of 2021 Assembly elections
Fatigue vs continuity
Kerala’s traditional pattern of alternating power between the LDF and the UDF was broken in 2021 when Vijayan led the LDF to a historic second consecutive term. This time, however, there are visible signs of fatigue among sections of the electorate, with growing calls for change. At the same time, the LDF is banking on the narrative that continuity is essential to sustain the state’s long-term development projects and welfare initiatives.
‘Deal’ concerns
A major talking point in the campaign had been the alleged “tacit understanding” between the CPI(M) and the BJP. To drive the allegation, the Congress pointed out that the CPI(M) has backed an Independent from Muslim community in Palakkad, where the BJP is hopeful of winning the seat with a strong Hindu vote bank.
Similar allegations have been made for several other seats. The BJP was also blamed for handing out many seats with core Hindu vote banks to its new ally Twenty20 Party, which has fielded mostly Christian candidates in these seats.
Price rise, rural distress
Despite the LDF’s emphasis on development, issues such as rising prices, unemployment, and agrarian distress remain key concerns among the voters.
In nearly 30 constituencies, man-animal conflict has emerged as a major issue. The LDF’s manifesto on buffer zones around protected forests sparked a controversy, forcing the alliance to make changes after backlash from affected areas. This has placed the ruling front on the defensive in several constituencies along the Western Ghats.
Vijayan factor
The LDF has projected Vijayan as the face of its campaign, effectively turning the election into a referendum on his leadership. While his strong administrative image and crisis management record appeal to supporters, his critics view his centralised style of governance as a “liability”.
Ten years in power has also led to internal unease within sections of the Left. A section argues that a “ruling class” mindset has crept into the CPI(M), due to which the party is prioritising winning over ideology. The party’s stand welcoming support from groups like the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI), linked to the banned Popular Front of India (PFI), has drawn criticism. In the past, the CPI(M) had accused rivals of aligning with such groups, making the current stance appear contradictory to some traditional supporters.
This has left a section of Left-leaning voters torn between supporting a third Vijayan term and expressing disapproval of this strategy to win at any cost.
BJP’s rise
The BJP has focused on a select set of constituencies, particularly in Thiruvananthapuram district, including Nemom, Vattiyoorkavu, and Kazhakkoottam with its improved performance in recent local body elections coming as a shot in the arm for the party.
Even in seats where the BJP is not a frontrunner, its vote share could prove decisive by splitting votes and influencing outcomes in constituencies closely contested by the LDF and the UDF.
Muslim voters are expected to play a crucial role, especially given the perception that weakening the UDF could indirectly aid the BJP’s growth in the state. Since 2014, when the BJP came to power at the Centre, Muslim voters in Kerala have largely favoured the UDF.
The proposed amendments to the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA) have upset the Church leadership. Church leaders have expressed apprehensions that the amendments could undermine charitable activities, casting a shadow over the BJP’s Christian outreach.
Both the CPI(M) and the BJP are looking for Hindu consolidation in their favour, claiming that if the UDF comes to power, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) will be calling the shots. Prominent Hindu community leader Vellappally Natesan, who is close to the CPI(M), had also repeatedly come out against the Congress over its ties with the IUML.
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