K C Venugopal or V D Satheesan as Kerala CM? Why Congress is in a fix

After that, Maken and Wasnik met MLAs one by one. Sources said an overwhelming number of the 63 MLAs prefer Venugopal, considered close to Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi. A handful of the MLAs did not indicate their preference and are learnt to have conveyed to the observers that they will abide by the high command’s choice. Sources said Satheesan made it clear that he would not be interested in taking up any post other than that of the CM. His stand is seen as a bargaining tactic.

Some of the leaders, including Chennithala, are learnt to have asked the high command representatives to put a stop to the flex boards and banners appearing in various parts of the state in support and against the three contenders, which they said is sending a signal that there is a war within the party.

The Congress dilemma

The support Venugopal has received will leave the high command in a dilemma for a variety of reasons.

Satheesan, for all practical purposes, was the face of the Congress and UDF campaign. He had been leading the offensive against the Pinarayi Vijayan government for the last five years in his role as the Leader of the Opposition. Many believe he is the automatic choice for the CM’s post in popular imagination. Moreover, the IUML — the second largest party in the UDF with 22 MLAs — is in his favour, given the principled positions that he often took against majoritarianism and his stand that community outfits such as the Nair Service Society and Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam — and their leaders G Sukumaran Nair and Vellalpally Natesan — should not meddle in politics and the affairs of political parties.

After the AICC observers met the Congress MLAs and returned to Delhi on Thursday evening, Satheesan’s camp claimed 35 (of the 63) legislators want him as CM. A few others have also given his name as their second choice. “Some of the MLAs have changed their mind after sensing the growing support for Satheesan from party workers,” claimed a leader close to Satheesan.

Congress workers have trooped into the streets in many parts of Kerala, demanding Satheesan be made the CM. The marches were held in Iritty in Kannur, the home district of KPCC president Sunny Joseph, in Kochi, and in Alappuzha.

Representatives of the IUML, the Kerala Congress (Joseph), the Kerala Congress (Jacob), and the RSP backed Satheesan during their meeting with the AICC observers. “We have informed our opinion that Satheesan should be the choice. He had led the Opposition and the election campaign. After the massive verdict, denying the CM post will be an injustice to him. We told the delegation that public opinion also should be factored along with the support of the MLAs,’’ said an IUML leader.
Kerala Congress (Joseph) delegation, after meeting the observers, told the media their party want a sitting MLA to be made the CM.

On the other hand, Chennithala is the seniormost among the three. He has a good equation with both NSS and SNDP and has administrative experience which Satheesan lacks. He has gone on record to drive home the point that seniority should be considered in selecting the new CM by recalling earlier this week that he had made way for Oommen Chandy in 2011 for the CM post since the late leader was the seniormost.

Moreover, he was not considered for the LoP post in 2021 despite the majority of MLAs having preferred him. After the unprecedented defeat of the party in 2021 that broke Kerala’s pattern of alternating Left and Congress governments, the high command had appointed Satheesan as the LoP.

The rival groups led by Chandy and Chennithala had then joined hands to nix Satheesan’s appointment. They wanted Chennithala to continue as LoP and appoint Chandy, or a person of his choice, as the president of the state unit. It would have ensured that power remained in the hands of the two leaders and their respective factions. The 2021 decision of the high command is significant as it shows that the central leadership can overrule the view of the MLAs and appoint a person of its choice. Given his seniority, Chennithala will also find it difficult to join the cabinet of Satheesan or Venugopal.

While Venugopal is said to be the preferred choice of the MLAs, installing him as the CM too is complicated. The party will have to factor in public perception and optics. The high command had taken a position that sitting MPs need not contest. To appoint an MP as the chief minister now needs a credible justification. Moreover, the party will have to find a safe Assembly seat for him to contest and win. In 2004, senior Congress leader K Muraleedharan had to resign from the A K Antony cabinet after he lost a crucial by-election.

Given how closely he works with Rahul Gandhi, it is not clear whether the LoP would like to let his closest aide move from Delhi to Kerala. Given all that, the exercise is turning out to be a tricky one for the Congress high command. What should be the factor: seniority, views of the MLAs or factional arithmetic, or public perception? “Whoever we choose, the high command will have to take all three along, sit with them and make them understand the reasons for the decision…we cannot leave any of them bitter,” said a senior Congress leader.