4 min readBengaluruMay 13, 2023 08:40 AM IST
First published on: May 12, 2023 at 11:18 PM IST
While for the BJP and Congress, this Assembly election is about winning, for the Janata Dal (Secular), it goes beyond that.
With its tall leaders like H D Deve Gowda and H D Kumaraswamy ageing, 35 seats or so will give the JD(S) another shot at power and a reboot, plus space to groom a second line of leaders.
The party’s hopes have been kindled by several exit polls predicting a hung Assembly, with Bengaluru buzzing Friday with reports of some of the JD(S)’s winnable candidates getting calls from both the BJP and Congress.
Kumaraswamy, who left for Singapore as soon as the elections got over, reportedly for a health check-up, is due back Saturday morning. Before leaving, he gave the first hint that the JD(S) may fall short, saying: “We initially hoped to win at least 50 seats, but due to a financial crunch, we were unable to do enough. I provided funds for places where we could turn things around but did not provide funds to places where we were already winning.”
Here is how the results could go for the JD(S):
1. A best-case scenario of 50-plus seats: This would put the party in the bargaining position with an ally, for chief ministership and other key portfolios. Kumaraswamy and the party would then put serious effort into expanding the JD(S) hold beyond the Old Mysuru region it is confined to now.
With regional parties in much demand aross the country as the Opposition seeks to put together a national anti-BJP front, it would also raise the JD(S)’s clout at the national stage. The JD(S) could well pitch its poll promise of ‘Panchajanya’ – putting the state’s interests first — as a role model for other regional parties across the country.
2. 35 seats for the party: It would leave neither the BJP nor the Congress in a position to form a government on their own and force them to turn to the JD(S) for help. But while it might find itself in power in such a scenario, historically, in such situations, the JD(S) has failed to translate that into growth for the party.
The best case in a 35-seat tally for the JD(S) would be winning all the seats in Mandya and Hassan districts, thus securing its own turf and giving the party a fresh wind.
3. A tally between 25-30 seats: The party could then face the prospect of becoming irrelevant in Karnataka politics. Given that its MLAs would be constantly lured by other parties, the JD(S) would be hard pressed to retain them if not in power, while such a tally would also mean that the party has shrunk even in its key regions.
A bigger pool of MLAs is also essential for the JD(S) at a time when it is facing increasing criticism, including from its supporters, of being reduced to a “family party”. Besides, a failure to repeat or better its 2018 performance of 37 seats would mean that its attempt to consolidate Muslim support by making C M Ibrahim the party’s Karnataka president went in vain.
4. A fall below 25 seats: This would leave the JD(S) struggling to retain its MLAs. Deve Gowda, who built the party from scratch, and is ailing and 89, may be witness then to its downfall in his lifetime, under son Kumaraswamy. Not only would one of Karnataka’s most prominent political families go into decline, so would the only influential regional party of Karnataka.
5. Anything below 25: This may be terminal for the JD(S), and would require all of Deve Gowda’s skills to keep even the family together, with the tussle between Kumaraswamy and brother H D Revanna coming to the fore.
Kumaraswamy, who left for Singapore as soon as the elections got over, reportedly for a health check-up, is due back Saturday morning. 
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