Jharkhand: The solo gamble
Even if the BJP completes a clean sweep, it may not be evidence enough of a pan-Jharkhand “Modi Wave”.
The BJP in Jharkhand goes into counting day confident that, on paper, it remains in contest in all 14 seats. However, by making the elections all about itself — the party contested alone, and along with the JVM(P), is the only one to contest all seats — the BJP state unit is flirting with the failure tag. Even one less than the eight it won in 2009, is enough to set the panic bells ringing.
Party leaders are confident of winning more than 10 seats. “We are guaranteed 12 seats. Giridih and Rajmahal are the two in which we are facing a tough contest,” said BJP leader and MLA Raghubar Das. The Congress on the other hand says, along with alliance partner JMM, it has a chance in eight constituencies. “I think we can win Ranchi, Lohardaga, Hazaribagh, Dhanbad, Godda, Giridih, Rajmahal and Dumka,” said state Congress General Secretary Shailesh Sinha.
There clearly cannot be a universe where both the BJP and Congress can go home happy. The confusion is evident in the exit poll results.
Early warning signals could come from two constituencies — Giridih and Rajmahal. Both parties admit them to be unknown territories. The BJP, in a “direct fight” with the JMM in both, knows winning the two will make it unstoppable. If the latter wins in Giridih, it will be a major blow for the BJP, whose incumbent MP won by 94,738 votes in 2009. It will also mean that the JMM votebank is robust, having withstood an assault from alliance partner Congress, whose leader Rajendra Prasad wanted the seat for his son.
That Rajmahal — and not Dumka — should be the barometer of Santhal Pargana is curious. BJP’s victory hinges on adivasi votes in the constituency, which has a significant number of Muslims.
Even if the BJP completes a clean sweep, it may not be evidence enough of a pan-Jharkhand “Modi Wave”.
If the BJP candidates in Ranchi and Jamshedpur win, it could be because of a Modi wave in these largely urban seats.
The BJP also claims that the 63.55 per cent turnout —- up from 50.97 in 2009 — is because of a Modi wave. While one cannot verify this claim yet, there remains the possibility that Muslims, especially women, voted in large numbers. A BJP leader claimed caste Hindus had voted to counter that. “Only 52 per cent Muslims voted in Jamshedpur. The rest were women and youth coming out to vote for NaMo,” he said.
Apart from former chief misister Madhu Koda’s wife, Geeta, who is expected to win in Singhbhum, smaller parties could spoil the BJP’s party. The CPI (ML) Liberation has mobilised the Dalits of Koderma effectively. In Khunti, no one really understands the impact of the alleged support extended by left wing extremist PLFI to Anosh Ekka.
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