In UP, Samajwadi Party, Congress brace for tie-up turbulence on road to 2027

“Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi and SP principal general secretary Ram Gopal Yadav had a chat during the Winter Session of Parliament last December where the LoP expressed interest in holding discussions on UP,” a senior SP leader told The Indian Express.

However, sources said that Gandhi’s office is yet to respond to the points that Ram Gopal Yadav sent to him after consulting SP chief Akhilesh Yadav.

Even as UP Congress spokesperson Surendra Rajpoot said the decision on matters related to the alliance will be taken at an “appropriate time”, a senior SP leader hoped the tie-up would be finalised at least six months before the polls to ensure that the candidate as well as the cadre get enough time for preparations.

The SP has already commissioned a survey in all 403 Assembly seats to assess the ground situation, social equations of each seat, and the popularity of ticket aspirants. “A list of strong and weak seats is also being prepared. The Congress will be given those seats where they appear to be in good position, and we expect them to share a list of desired seats with us,” a senior SP leader said.

Pointing out how the Congress “squandered time and seats” in Bihar ahead of November 2025 Assembly polls there, the SP leader said, “While the BJP was getting voters added to the electoral rolls through the Special Intensive Revision (SIR), the Congress was busy preparing for Gandhi’s Voter Adhikar Yatra,” the leader added. Despite several rounds of negotiations, the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar – comprising the RJD, Congress, Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), Indian Inclusive Party (IIP) and the Left – could not reach a full agreement and faced each other in “friendly fights” in 11 seats. Eventually, the incumbent Nitish Kumar-led NDA swept the elections to the 243-member Bihar Assembly.The Congress won only six of the 61 seats it contested, a drop from the 19 it won in 2020 when it contested 70 seats.

SP, Congress targets

In the 2022 UP Assembly polls, where the SP and Congress contested separately, the grand old party won only two of 399 seats it contested while 387 of its candidates forfeited security deposits. It finished runner-up in four seats – Jagdishpur, Kheragarh, Kidwai Nagar and Mathura.

The SP contested 347 seats and won 111, while its candidates finished runner-up in 223 seats.

Based on these results, sources said the SP is likely to stake claim on 334 seats in its seat-sharing negotiations.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress won six seats in UP out of 17 it contested, leading in 40 Assembly segments. The party is likely to stake claim on these seats and also those where it finished runner-up by small margins. “For instance, we lost the Bansgaon Lok Sabha seat to the BJP by only 3,150 votes after leading in three Assembly segments that fall under it,” a Congress leader said.

The Congress is also likely to demand “equitable distribution of around 90 weak seats” which the BJP has been winning since the past two-three Assembly elections. “Why should only the Congress contest these seats? Other allies also must contest some of these seats, where coordination between allies must be seen,” the leader said, adding that the SP had given three such “weak seats” – Ghaziabad, Bulandshahr and Mathura – to the Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The Congress trailed in all Assembly segments encompassing Bulandshahr and Mathura, and four of the five in Ghaziabad.

Naseemuddin factor

The two INDIA allies recently faced a dilemma when former minister Naseemuddin Siddiqui switched from the Congress to the SP. However, leaders from both parties insist that the development will have little impact on their tie-up.

“Siddiqui was eyeing a ticket for his son, which the Congress had agreed to. Despite this, he joined the SP. There could be some disagreements with the SP during seat-sharing but overall his shift will not have any major impact,” a Congress leader said, admitting that Siddiqui’s exit may dent the party’s prospects in a few seats.

While SP spokesperson Rajendra Chaudhary echoed the Congress leader’s views, he said discussions on the alliance will begin only after the SIR exercise concludes in the state. “The INDIA bloc is intact and our focus is on winning maximum seats. Hence, we want to know which seats the Congress is confident of winning,” he added.