In three UP bypolls since 2022, BJP edged out by SP-RLD in cornering Dalit vote

In Ghosi, in the 2022 Assembly election the SP had got 42.21 per cent votes as against the BJP’s 33.57 per cent votes and the BSP’s 21.12 per cent votes. Dalits account for about 19 per cent of the voters in the constituency, most of whom are Jatavs.

In its Ghosi bypoll campaign, the BJP led by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, in a bid to reach out to Dalits, expressed sympathy for Mayawati by invoking the 1995 incident when the SP leaders had allegedly attempted to assault her at the VVIP Guesthouse in Lucknow after she had withdrawn support to the then Mulayam Singh Yadav-led government.

The BJP also recently lodged a complaint with the Election Commission, alleging that the SP candidate in Ghosi bypoll, Sudhakar Singh, was handing out money to people in areas with a predominantly Dalit and minority population.

Eventually, however, the SP pulled off a resounding win in Ghosi, with Sudhakar defeating Chauhan by 42,759 votes, garnering 57.2 per cent votes against the latter’s 37.5 per cent votes. The SP got the larger share of the BSP’s Dalit votes in the constituency.

In the Khatauli bypoll held in December 2022, the BJP lost the seat to the RLD. Earlier, in the general elections, the BJP’s Vikram Singh Saini had won this seat by garnering 45.34 per cent votes. The RLD’s Rajpal Singh Saini was then the runner-up with 38 per cent votes, while the BSP came third with 14.15 per cent votes.

In the Khatauli by-election, which was held in the wake of Vikram’s

disqualification after his conviction in a 2013 Muzaffarnagar riot case, the RLD’s Madan Bhaiyya won the seat by securing 54.23 per cent votes. The BJP’s candidate Rajkumari Saini, Vikram’s wife, got 41.72 per cent votes.

Dalits make up the second largest chunk of voters in Khatauli after the Muslim community. BJP sources said the Azad Samaj Party chief

Chandrashekhar Azad’s campaign in support of the RLD’s nominee helped the party secure Dalit votes. “We had got only a small chunk of Dalit votes. Majority of them had voted for RLD-SP alliance,” said a local BJP leader.

In the Mainpuri Lok Sabha bypoll held in December last year – which was necessitated by the demise of the sitting MP Mulayam Singh Yadav, the SP founder – the SP’s Dimple Yadav retained the seat by getting 64.49 per cent votes, with the BJP’s Raghuraj Singh Shakya getting only 34.39 per cent votes. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, when the SP had an alliance with the BSP, Mulayam’s vote share was 53.66 per cent as against the BJP candidate’s 44 per cent votes. The BSP was absent from the fray in the 2022 bypoll.

The Mainpuri constituency accounts for about 4.5 lakh Yadav voters, 3.5 lakh

Shakyas, 2.5 lakh Dalits, 1.25 lakh Lodh Rajputs, and 60,000 Muslim voters. In the BSP’s absence, a major chunk of the Dalit votes was said to have gone to Dimple.

“Certainly most of Dalit voters supported SP-led alliance candidates in these bypolls even after BJP claims that it benefited the community with welfare schemes like free ration, houses, LPG connection, among others. But the selection of wrong candidates was a big reason for our party’s defeat,” a BJP leader said.

The BJP’s Mainpuri bypoll candidate Shakya is a former SP MP who had joined the saffron party during the 2022 Assembly polls when the SP denied him ticket.

“In Khatauli, party gave ticket to wife of Vikram Singh Saini who had been disqualified a few days before the polls. Likewise, voters and workers in Ghosi had resentment against Dara Singh Chauhan. Had BJP fielded any other party worker on these seats, BJP might have won both of them,” said a BJP leader.

State BJP president Bhupendra Singh Chadhary said, “Results should not be seen with this view. Results of Rampur and Gola Gokarannath bypolls should also be seen.” The BJP had won these two Assembly bypolls held last year even though the BSP had not contested there.

The state chief of the BJP Scheduled Castes Morcha, Ramchandra Kanaujia, said, “When I met Dalit voters in Ghosi, they all gave a positive response. Most of them have got houses, free ration, toilets and benefits of other welfare schemes. Same response was seen in Mainpuri too. But I cannot comment what factor worked in polling. Party is reviewing the poll results.”

After the 2022 Assembly polls, bypolls were held in the state for three Lok Sabha seats – Rampur, Azamgarh and Mainpuri – of which the BJP won Rampur and Azamgarh seats. The BSP contested only the Azamgarh Lok Sabha bypoll.

Also, six Assembly bypolls have been held since the 2022 state elections, of which the BJP won from the Rampur and Gola Gokarannath constituencies while its ally Apna Dal (S) bagged the Chhanbey and Suar seats. The SP won Ghosi and the RLD wrested Khatauli from the BJP. The BSP contested none of these Assembly by-elections.