In Kerala, amid ‘anti-incumbency’, LDF bets big on sitting MLAs, UDF rides on new faces

In 2021, the LDF had returned to power for a second term with 99 seats in the 140-member Assembly, as the UDF remained in the Opposition with 41 seats. The BJP-led NDA failed to win any of the 138 seats it had contested.

LDF candidates

This year, the Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan-led CPI(M) is contesting 77 seats and the CPI 24 seats in the state, with the remaining 39 seats allotted to the LDF allies ranging from factions of the Kerala Congress and influential Independents to the Bihar-based Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Maharashtra-based Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar).

Together, the LDF has renominated 69 sitting MLAs – 48 from the CPI(M), 6 from the CPI and 15 others – from their current seats. These MLAs had won in 2021 by an average margin of 16,300 votes, with 11 of them securing more than 50% of the vote share in their seats and another 56 winning with vote shares between 40% and 50%.

However, possibly under the pressure of anti-incumbency, the LDF has dropped 26 sitting MLAs and shifted 4 MLAs to new seats, including former state health minister K K Shailaja to Peravoor from Mattannur, which she had won by a record margin of 61,000 votes in 2021. These dropped or shifted MLAs had won in 2021 by an average margin of 20,000 votes, with 14 of them securing more than 50% of the vote share in their seats. In three cases, however, the sitting MLAs have not been renominated either because they died while in office or were elected to the Lok Sabha.

However, among the 41 LDF candidates who had lost in 2021, the alliance renominated just 3 from the same seat this year. The remaining 38 losing candidates who have been dropped had lost in 2021 by an average margin of 47,100 votes, with 35 of them finishing as the runner-up.

Within its alliance, the LDF has reallocated 22 seats among its partners as compared to the 2021 seat-sharing deal. The CPI(M) and the CPI are fighting in 8 seats this time that its allies had contested in 2021, while they have given up 5 seats they contested last time to its partners for the upcoming polls.

A regional analysis of the candidates shows that the LDF is relying on Independents to challenge the Opposition Indian Union Muslim League (IUML)’s dominance in the Muslim-dominated Malappuram district, while in the Left’s strongholds in northern Kerala it has fielded mostly sitting MLAs. A significant chunk of the LDF’s new candidates are concentrated in central Kerala.

UDF candidates

The UDF, on the other hand, after two consecutive Assembly poll defeats in Kerala, has made wholesale changes to its candidates’ list as compared to the 2021 elections. This time, the Congress is contesting 91 seats, followed by the IUML in 26, the Kerala Congress in 10, and other allies in 12. Notably, the UDF has now backed 9 Independents, up from 3 in 2021.

The UDF is together fielding 27 sitting MLAs, including 16 from the Congress and 7 from the IUML. These sitting MLAs had won in 2021 by an average margin of 11,000 votes, with 10 of them securing more than 50% of the vote share in their seats.

However, the Opposition coalition has changed its candidates in 99 seats, including 11 sitting MLAs. In another three seats, changes were necessitated by deaths of the sitting MLAs, including Congress veteran Oomen Chandy, and election to the Lok Sabha. There are a total 14 seats currently held by the UDF where a new candidate has been fielded – the average margin in these seats was 13,750 votes.

While the UDF has dropped 85 candidates who lost in 2021 by an average of 18,800 votes, with 78 of them finishing as the runner-up, the alliance has shifted 13 candidates, including 2 sitting MLAs, to new seats as compared to 2021. However, the UDF has also renominated 14 candidates who lost in the previous elections.

Between the alliance partners, 18 seats have been reallocated compared to the 2021 pact. The Congress is contesting 7 seats this year where its partners had fielded candidates in 2021, while it is ceding 9 seats it had contested in 2021 to its allies, including 8 to Independents.

A regional breakdown of the UDF’s candidates shows that the most significant changes and reshuffles have come in southern Kerala, while the alliance is continuing to rely on the IUML in the Muslim-dominated Malappuram district. In particular, the UDF is relying on prominent Independents, including P V Anvar in Beypore, in seats where its vote share fell below 30% in 2021.

NDA nominees

The BJP-led NDA has had struggled to gain a foothold in Kerala. The BJP’s best Assembly poll showing in the state came in 2016, when it won 1 seat, even as its win in the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation election in December 2025 has come as a booster to the party ahead of the upcoming polls.

Having been reduced to zero seats in 2021, the BJP has now turned to new faces for not only its candidates, but also its allies. The party has continued its alliance with the Hindu Ezhava community-oriented Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), joining hands with the Twenty20 Party (TTP) founded in 2015 by textile magnate Sabu M Jacob.

The BJP is contesting 98 seats, BDJS 22, and TTP 19. Just 15 of the NDA’s nominees this year had contested the same seats in 2021, then losing by an average margin of 42,000 votes. In 123 seats, the NDA has changed its losing candidate from 2021, including shifting 21 candidates to new seats. These 123 candidates had then lost by an average margin of 53,700 votes.