4 min readChennaiJun 3, 2024 09:50 AM IST
First published on: Jun 2, 2024 at 07:01 AM IST
WHILE OVERALL the exit polls paint a positive picture for the BJP-led NDA, the party will be particularly happy if the predictions hold true for the South.
As per the exit polls, the BJP, which has been trying to make inroads into the South, is set to put up a strong performance in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, and make notable gains in Telangana and Tamil Nadu. Kerala, however, will remain a UDF stronghold, even as the BJP will make its presence felt as per the exit polls, and pick up two seats (it has never won a Lok Sabha election in Kerala).
In 2019, the UDF had won 19 of the 20 seats in Kerala, seen as an effect of Rahul Gandhi contesting from the Wayanad constituency in the state, and the LDF 1.
While overall the exit polls indicate a big lead for the DMK-led INDIA alliance in Tamil Nadu, giving it 33-39 seats out of the total 39 – which was anticipated – they give four-odd seats to the BJP. The national party had not won a single seat in Tamil Nadu in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, which had been swept by the DMK alliance with 38 of 39 seats.
A result along these lines would be an affirmation of the leadership of the BJP’s combative state chief K Annamalai. It would also imply that the BJP has made gains at the expense of the AIADMK, which has been struggling with internal divide.
Karnataka could hold a surprise if the BJP repeats its 2019 dominance, when it won 27 of the 28 seats, given the size of the Congress victory in the state Assembly elections last year. The average of the exit polls suggested 23 seats for the BJP, indicating that the party gained from its alliance with the JD(S) ahead of the polls.
Even Telangana would be a surprise, if the exit polls hold true, given that the BJP has never been a major player here, and the Congress is the ruling party. While the main Opposition party, Bharat Rashtra Samithi, has been on the decline, the exit polls predict far sharper gains for the BJP due to this than anticipated, placing it neck-and-neck with the Congress in the state, which has 17 Lok Sabha seats. In 2019, the NDA had got 4 seats in Telangana, with the rest going to INDIA parties and others.
In Andhra Pradesh, which saw simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, the exit polls anticipate a sweeping NDA victory. The TDP-Jana Sena Party, boosted by an alliance with the BJP, was seen as making big gains in the state, and the exit polls gave the NDA up to 22 seats, if not more, out of 25. In 2019, the YSRCP had won 22 seats.
If the YSRCP ends up with as little as predicted, it would mean that the anti-incumbency factor held strong, despite its attempts to dodge that with mass change of candidates. It would also mean that the NDA alliance led by the TDP got its poll arithmetic right in terms of seat-sharing.
Even Telangana would be a surprise, if the exit polls hold true, given that the BJP has never been a major player here, and the Congress is the ruling party. 
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