In DMK vs AIADMK battle for Tamil Nadu, data shows which allies hold the key

Against this backdrop, a myriad of regional parties could play crucial roles as allies in the elections due in April.

In the 2021 Assembly polls, while the DMK had relied on its allies to win 26 of the coalition’s 159 seats in the 234-member House, the AIADMK turned to its partners for nine of the Opposition alliance’s 75 seats.

The DMK had then crossed the 118-seat majority mark on it own by winning 133 seats, but it is likely to face a tougher task this time, especially as it looks to accommodate all its allies and the point that the TVK is now in the fray too.

The alliances

For the upcoming polls, coalitions have already taken shape broadly. Late last month, former AIADMK leader T T V Dhinakaran, who now heads the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), returned to the AIADMK-NDA fold.

The AIADMK-led alliance now includes a host of regional players, including Anbumani Ramadoss’s Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) faction, G K Vasan’s Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar) or TMC(M), and outfits headed by influential community leaders such as A C Shanmugham’s Puthiya Needhi Katchi (PNK), T R Parivendhar’s Indiya Jananayaka Katchi (IJK), John Pandian’s Tamizhaga Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (TMMK) and K Krishnasamy’s Puthiya Tamilagam (PT).

While the Chief Minister M K Stalin-led DMK is looking to buck Tamil Nadu’s historical trend of anti-incumbency and win consecutive terms – a feat achieved only once since 1984, by the AIADMK in 2016 – the ruling party too will count on several key allies.

Besides the Congress, the DMK’s regional allies include Dalit leader Thol Thirumavalavan’s Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), the CPI and CPI(M), the Kerala-based Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM), Vaiko’s Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), and E R Eswaran’s Kongunadu Makkal Desia Katchi (KMDK).

As national and regional players vie for space in an already crowded field, the TVK is not the only unaligned party. Actor-politician Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) remains a significant force despite struggling to win seats. The Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), founded by late actor Vijayakanth and now led by his wife Premalatha, is still undecided between the DMK-led and NDA alliances, apparently holding talks with both camps.

Among the notable independent leaders yet to join an alliance is former CM O Panneerselvam or OPS, who has been courted by the DMK. But a return to the AIADMK, a party he once led before being ousted in a power struggle, has so far been scotched by party chief Edappadi K Palaniswami or EPS.

AIADMK’s allies

The 2021 polls saw the AIADMK-led alliance being ousted from power, when its tally dropped to 75 seats from 136 in 2016. Its only allies to win any seats were the BJP and PMK, winning 4 and 5 seats respectively.

Though the allies’ seat tallies appear unremarkable, their vote shares paint a more promising picture. Overall in the state, the AIADMK led the alliance with a 33.29% vote share, second only to the ruling DMK, while the PMK and the BJP secured state-wide vote shares of 3.8% and 2.62%.

But in just the 23 seats contested by the PMK, it was a considerable force, securing 37.61% of the vote share. Most of these seats are concentrated in northern Tamil Nadu. The BJP, meanwhile, secured a 34.26% vote share in the 20 seats it contested, most of which were located in the southern and western regions of the state.

Performance of AIADMK’s allies

Though the PMK and the BJP only won a handful of seats, they finished in second place in every seat that they failed to win. But in these runner-up seats, while the PMK lost by an average margin of 33,885 votes, the BJP lost by an average 34,182 votes, well above the state-wide average victory margin of 22,871.

The PMK and the BJP were the AIADMK’s strongest allies, but in a crowded electoral field in the forthcoming Assembly polls, they will have their tasks cut out in order to overcome their previous losing margins.

In 2021, several allies, including the TMC(M) and TMMK, had contested on the AIADMK’s symbol. But at the time, present-day allies like the IJK, PT and AMMK had contested independently and failed to win any seats.

Dhinakaran’s AMMK, for instance, had contested 165 seats but secured only a 2.35% vote share across the state and 3.3% in just the seats it contested en route to 156 of its candidates forfeiting their deposits for failing to win at least one-sixth of the vote share in their respective seats.

The IJK and PT had fared even worse, forfeiting deposits in each of the 38 and 36 seats, respectively, that they contested. Their vote shares, too, scraped the bottom – the PT secured 0.6% in its 36 seats, while the IJK managed 0.5% in its 38 seats.

These numbers suggest the inclusion of these allies in the AIADMK-led front this time will rely heavily on a transfer of votes from the AIADMK to the smaller regional parties, whose influential community-based leaders alone were not enough to make a mark in the 2021 elections.

Meanwhile, the AIADMK, which had won 66 of the 191 seats it contested in 2021, managed to secure a 40.48% vote share in these seats, and finished as the runner-up in 125 seats where they lost by an average margin of 21,343 votes.

But the 2024 Lok Sabha election had been a dismal showing for these parties. They failed to win any of 39 parliamentary seats in the state, with the AIADMK managing to lead in just 8 Assembly segments and the PMK in 3 segments.

In vote share terms too, all these parties saw a drop from the 2021 Assembly polls. The AIADMK led the alliance members with a vote share of 23.27% across the 34 Lok Sabha constituencies it contested, followed by the BJP at 19.59% in 23 seats, the AMMK at 17.85% in 2 seats, the PMK at 15.91% in 10 seats, and the TMC(M) at 11.68% in 3 seats.

The Lok Sabha elections had seen the BJP ally with the AMMK, PMK and TMC(M), while the AIADMK led its own separate alliance.

DMK’s allies

In the 2021 elections, the DMK-led alliance won 159 seats, up from 98 in 2016. All but two of its allies who contested on their own party symbols managed to win seats, while several key leaders of smaller allies who contested on the DMK’s symbol also recorded wins.

The Congress, Left and the VCK were the DMK’s most effective allies. The Congress won 18 of the 25 seats it contested for a state-wide vote share of 4.27%, followed by the VCK winning 4 of its 6 seats (0.99% state-wide vote share), and CPI and CPI(M) each winning 2 of 6 seats (1.09% and 0.85%, respectively).

While the DMK secured a 37.7% vote share across the state, the highest among all parties, it was dominant in the 188 seats it contested, winning 133 and managing a 46.45% vote share here. The CPI had the next highest vote share in just the seats it contested at 43.28%, followed by the VCK at 42.44%, the Congress at 41.36% and the CPI(M) at 35.17%.

While the Congress’s seats were concentrated in north and south Tamil Nadu, including several direct contests against the BJP, the Left parties focused largely on the west and the VCK mostly contested Scheduled Caste (SC)-reserved seats mostly in the north and east.

Performance of DMK’s allies

In all but 2 of the 17 seats that the Congress, VCK and the Left parties contested and lost, these parties finished as the runner-up. None of these parties, including the DMK, forfeited any deposits.

The Congress and VCK, which lost 7 and 2 seats respectively, fell short in these seats by an average margin of 25,871 and 24,448 votes – higher than the state-wide average winning margin of 22,871 votes. The Left parties, though, lost 8 seats by an average margin of 21,198, while the DMK placed second in each of the 55 seats it lost, by an average margin of 16,487 votes.

The IUML, which failed to win any of the 3 seats it contested as an ally, secured a state-wide vote share 0.48% but managed a 38.41% vote share in just the seats it contested.

The MNM, in its debut Assembly election, unsuccessfully contested 180 seats independently, forfeiting deposits in 178 seats. Its state-wide vote share was 2.62%, but its vote share in just the seats it contested was a dismal 3.43%, a suggestion that the MNM would be better off focusing on a handful of seats where it can capitalise on a potential transfer of votes from its more dominant allies given that Kamal Haasan’s star power did not translate into seats in 2021. But the actor-turned-politician’s continued importance to the alliance is evidenced by the fact that he was nominated to the Rajya Sabha with the DMK’s backing last July.

Meanwhile, in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the DMK-led alliance and each of its constituents pulled off a clean sweep by winning all 39 seats. These parties also led in all but 13 of the 234 Assembly segments, finishing as the runner-up in the seats where they were not the leading party.

These parties’ vote shares in the seats they contested show how dominant they were in the Lok Sabha polls. While the DMK contested the most parliamentary seats at 22, it managed a vote share of 47.25% in these seats. The Congress contested 9 seats where it secured a 46.4% vote share. The CPI, CPI(M) and VCK each contested 2 seats, garnering vote shares of 44.3%, 51.56%, and 42.36% respectively. The IUML and MDMK each contested 1 seat, winning 45.97% and 51.41% vote share, respectively.