In Bengal, TMC reels from cracks in Muslim vote bank, holds out in high SIR deletion seats

In the current elections to the 293 Assembly seats, the BJP bagged 207 seats as against the TMC’s 80. As the BJP expanded its electoral footprint, the representation of Muslims declined in the new House to 40 from 44 in the outgoing Assembly. Of 40 Muslim MLAs, 34 are from the TMC, two from the Congress, and one each from the CPM and All India Secular Front (ISF).

Suspended TMC leader Humayun Kabir, who formed the Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP), had fielded candidates from 143 seats across the state. Kabir himself contested two seats – Rejinagar and Nowda – in the Muslim-dminated Murshidabad district, and won both. The TMC, which had won both these seats in 2021, slipped to third place there despite fielding Muslim candidates.

In the 2021 elections, when the TMC won 215 seats as against the BJP’s 77, 44 Muslim MLAs were elected, of whom 43 were from the TMC and one from the ISF.

In this election, the BJP managed to make inroads in Muslim belts, even winning several seats there. A senior TMC leader said, “This time Bengal has seen not only huge anti-incumbency but also strong Hindu polarisation. Probably, after Independence, this is for the first time that such a polarisation of Hindu vote were seen in the state. We were defeated in those seats where either Muslim vote fractured and Hindu vote got polarised.”

SIR deletions

The Election Commission (EC)’s months-long Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, which resulted in deletion of about 91 lakh voters – including over 27 lakh voters following adjudication – was a key plank of the TMC in the election, which highlighted the disproportionately high deletions of Muslim voters. Mamata has been up in arms against the SIR from the beginning, accusing the EC of doing a hatchet job on behalf of the BJP.

However, in several constituencies that saw high deletions after adjudication in Muslim dominated districts like Murshidabad and Malda, the TMC managed to retain several seats, which include Samserganj (74,775 deletions), Lalgola (55,420), Bhagabangola (47,493), Raghunathganj (46,100), Suti (37,965), Mothabari (37,255), Sujapur (26829), and Malatipur (29489).

Cracks in TMC’s Muslim base

Since 2011, the TMC dominated major districts, such as Murshidabad, Malda and Uttar Dinajpur, relying on the consolidation of Muslim votes.

Of the 43 seats in these three districts, the TMC won 22 this time, which marked a sharp dip from its 35-seat tally in the previous election. In sharp contrast, the BJP’s tally in the three districts surged to 19 from just eight seats in 2021. The remaining seats there were won by Muslim candidates of the Congress (2 seats), CPM (1 seat) and the AJUP (2 seats), which cut into the TMC’s Muslim base. Humayun Kabir won both the Nowda and Rejinagar seats.

The Congress and the CPM won from Raninagar and Domkal respectively, where Muslims are in a majority. However, in another Muslim-majority seat, Beldanga, the BJP’s candidate won, getting advantage of a split in the community’s vote. The TMC similarly lost Khargram, Kandi and some other seats in Murshidabad to the BJP, which also won Malda’s Manikchak and Baishnabnagar seats, where the Muslim population is about 47%.

In 64 seats in North 24 Parganas and South 24 Parganas, the TMC had swept the polls in 2021, with the BJP just picking five. This time, the BJP increased its tally to 34, winning many seats with over 30% Muslim population. ISF chief Naushad Siddiqui retained his Bhangar seat, too.

The TMC also lost the Haripal, Singur and Pandua seats in Hoogly and Monteswar in Purba Bardhaman, where 20-30% voters are Muslims.

Some observers have pointed out that there has also been resentment among a section of Muslims against the TMC government over issues like the OBC list and the Waqf law’s roll-out, among other factors.

A senior TMC leader from the Muslim community said, “We have lost the confidence of Muslims. It may get more eroded in the coming elections, leading to our shrinking hold in the minority belts. Muslims seem to have realised that only some families became prosperous. The community has been reeling from the problem of migration because of unemployment, which has also made them angry. Mamata Banerjee assured them that she will set up hubs of zari and gold ornaments, but nothing happened in 15 years.”

Dip in Muslim representation

The 40 Muslim MLAs elected this time account for 13.60% of the House. The share of Muslim MLAs in the outgoing Assembly was 14.96% (44). In 2016, when the BJP had won only three seats, there were 59 Muslim MLAs.

Unlike the previous three elections, the BJP did not field any Muslim candidates this year, marking a shift in its strategy. The party fielded Hindu candidates from the nine seats where it had nominated Muslims in 2021. The BJP however could not win any of these seats.

The TMC, Congress and the Left fielded a significant number of Muslim candidates in this election.

A quarter of the Congress’s 294 candidates or 75 (25.31%) were from the minority community. In 2021, Muslims made up 36.95% of the Congress’s 94 candidates. The party had then contested in alliance with the Left and ISF.

In 2021, the TMC had given tickets to 46 Muslim candidates, or 15.86% of its 290 nominees. This time, the party increased their share marginally to 48 or 16.49% of its 291 candidates.

The Left Front together fielded 42 Muslim candidates, even as they contested the election in alignment with the ISF.