How delimitation pushed NDA over 100-seat mark in Assam

With the NDA riding on a pitch against “illegal immigration”, a focus on development; Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s popularity; a slew of welfare schemes; and ally Bodoland People’s Front (BPF)’s reigning dominance in Bodoland territories, the Congress-led alliance largely failed to present an appealing counter-narrative. While a mix of these factors sealed the NDA’s victory among the Hindu, ethnic Assamese, and tribal voters, the significant redrawing of Assam’s electoral map in the 2023 delimitation exercise has influenced the sheer number of constituencies in which their appeal has translated into a win.

The Upper and North Assam region, largely home to ethnic Assamese, tribal and tea-tribe voters, has steadily grown into a complete BJP stronghold. In 2021, this region accounted for 42 seats, of which 30 were won by the BJP, 6 by the AGP, and only 5 by the Congress and 1 by the Raijor Dal.

The BJP’s near consolidation of this region – where the number of seats has increased to 43 after delimitation – is reflected in it winning 38 of its seats this time. Its ally Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) won 3 seats here. The Opposition won 2 seats here – one each by the Congress in Nowboicha and Raijor Dal’s Akhil Gogoi in his Sibsagar seat.

The region where there has been a complete BJP sweep is in the tribal-majority hill belt of Karbi Anglong, West Karbi Anglong and Dima Hasao. Here, the number of seats increased from 5 to 6 after delimitation, and the BJP won all the seats here in 2021 and this year.

The Bodoland region saw a significant increase in the number of seats, from 11 to 15 after delimitation. This area had presented a more mixed picture in 2021: the BJP had then allied with Bodoland-based party, United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL), which had won 6 seats here, while the BJP won 2. At the time, the Congress had allied with the BPF, which had won 3 seats. With the BPF in alliance with the BJP this time, it was the BPF that led with 10 seats here, and the BJP at 4, while the Congress won 1 seat – Parbatjhora, where Bengali-origin Muslim voters constitute the majority.

In the Kamrup Metropolitan area – comprising Guwahati city and surrounding areas, and considered a BJP-AGP – the number of seats increased from 4 to 5 after delimitation, with the NDA again winning all of the region’s seats in 2021 and this year.

The Central and Lower Assam region, and the Barak Valley region – both with significant Bengali-origin Muslim populations and where the Opposition had cornered most of its seats in 2021 – is where the “delimitation effect” is most stark.

In the Central and Lower Assam region – where the Congress won 20 seats in 2021, AIUDF 11 and CPI(M) 1 – the total number of seats has been reduced from 49 to 44.

The seats in this region have been redrawn considerably with political commentators observing that they have been carved in a way that belts where minorities live have been clubbed together and concentrated into fewer seats.

Some seats in the region, such as Goalpara West and Barpeta, where Muslim candidates have won in the past, have been notified as reserved for Scheduled Tribe (ST) and Scheduled Caste (SC) candidates, respectively.

A combination of these factors has resulted in the BJP winning 21 seats and AGP 6, compared to 14 and 2, respectively, in 2021. And though this is the region where the Opposition has performed the best, their tally has gone down to 13 for the Congress, 1 for ally Raijor Dal, 2 for AIUDF, and 1 for Trinamool Congress – all in “minority seats” with Bengali-origin Muslim leaders.

Similarly, the primarily Bengali-speaking Barak Valley – where the Bengali Hindu voters have been a traditional support base for the BJP – has been drastically redrawn with the number of seats reduced from 15 to 13 after delimitation. In 2021, the region had yielded 6 MLAs from the BJP, 5 from AIUDF, and 4 from Congress. A similar pattern of carved-out constituencies and binary voting patterns has now resulted in 9 MLAs from the BJP and 4 from the Congress, again all in “minority seats” with Bengali-origin Muslim leaders from the region.