As the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Shiv Sena (UBT) split in June, the pace at which these Opposition parties unravelled and the support of the breakaway groups for the BJP-led NDA alliance indicated that the ruling party was pushing hard to reach two-thirds majority in Parliament and amend the Constitution.
With the support of these additional MPs secured, the BJP can make another attempt to push through the constitutional amendment Bill on delimitation and operationalise the women’s reservation law in the coming Monsoon Session of Parliament. The government, on July 17, is also likely to introduce the 130th Constitution Amendment Bill that seeks to remove ministers following their arrest or detention for 30 consecutive days for serious offences.
The Opposition has opposed the government on both these issues and in April defeated the attempt to expand the size of the Lok Sabha and state Assemblies.
Article 368 says an amendment to the Constitution may be initiated “only by the introduction of a Bill for the purpose in either House of Parliament, and when the Bill is passed in each House by a majority of the total membership of that House and by a majority of not less than two-thirds of the members of that House present and voting”.
That means there are two conditions to be satisfied: such a Bill requires the support of at least 273 MPs in the Lok Sabha, which has a total membership of 545, and then two-thirds of members present and voting. If all 540 sitting MPs of the current Lok Sabha are present and vote, that would mean requiring at least 360 votes in favour.
How is the NDA placed?
In April, during voting on the Constitution (One Hundred and Thirty-First Amendment) Bill, 2026, 528 of 540 current Lok Sabha MPs participated, with 298 voting in its favour, 230 against it, and 11 MPs absent. The absentees, sources said, were seven TMC, two Congress, and two of the seven Independent MPs currently in prison.
While the NDA met the first condition, it fell short of the two-thirds mark of 352. Here is the breakdown of the NDA’s 293 votes (the five additional ayes came from other parties):
BJP: 240
TDP: 16
JD(U): 12
Shiv Sena (led by Eknath Shinde): 7
Lok Janshakti Party: 5
Janata Dal (Secular), JanaSena Party, RLD: two each, or 6
AJSU, Apna Dal (S), Asom Gana Parishad, Hindustani Awam Morcha, NCP (now led by Sunetra Pawar), and Sikkim Krantikari Morcha, one Independent MP: one each, or 7
Have the recent splits and defections altered the equation?
First, 20 rebel MPs of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) broke away from the party and merged with a little-known outfit called the Nationalist Citizens Party of India to avoid the anti-defection law. Along with six of the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s 9 MPs who joined the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde, the NDA is now said to have the support of 318 to 319 Lok Sabha MPs, still 41 to 42 short of the 360 mark.
The BJP may also attempt to get the support of the DMK, which has 22 MPs and has been miffed with the Congress following its decision to break their alliance and join hands with the Vijay-led TVK in Tamil Nadu. In the DMK, certain sections are learnt to be open to negotiating with the BJP “on specific issues”.
Then there are the Independent MPs, who may play a crucial role.
How is the Opposition placed?
Before defections occurred, the total strength of the INDIA alliance was 225 — including 98 for the Congress, Samajwadi Party 37, TMC 28, DMK 22, Shiv Sena (UBT) 9, NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) 8, Left 8, RJD 4, three each for IUML, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and AAP, and two MPs of the National Conference.
This bloc of MPs is down 26, following the TMC and Sena (UBT) splits, and there is also the uncertainty about the DMK.
How could voting play out if the Bills are reintroduced in the Monsoon Session?
The NDA still has some distance to bridge. It can seek the support of a party such as the Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSRCP that has 4 MPs and ensure that Opposition parties such as the NCP (SP) or the DMK, with a total of 30 MPs, either back it or abstain. That will bring down the special majority mark.
In this context, the role of the Independent MPs becomes important. However, among them, Amritpal Singh and Sheikh Abdul Rashid are currently in prison.
For instance, if the DMK and the NCP (SP) abstain, the two-thirds mark will be down to 330, leaving the NDA short by 11 votes. Theoretically, with the support of the YSRCP and the five Independents likely to be available to vote, the NDA will be left with only two votes to get.
What are the Rajya Sabha numbers?
In the Upper House, 242 of the 245 seats are currently occupied, making 123 votes enough to satisfy the first condition and 161 the special majority mark if all members are present and voting. The BJP has 114 MPs on its own, including the seven AAP MPs who joined in April. With the rest of its allies, the NDA has close to 140 MPs with it. The non-NDA parties have a little over 100 MPs on their side.
What are the rules on abstention?
The Rules and Procedures of Parliament state that an MP who “votes ‘abstention’ either through the electronic vote recorder or on a voting slip or any other manner” does so only to “indicate his presence in the House and his intention to abstain from voting; he does not record his vote within the meaning of the words ‘present and voting’. The expression ‘present and voting’ refers to those who vote for ‘ayes’ or for ‘noes’”.
This means that MPs can participate in House proceedings and still abstain from voting in the secret ballot, instead of staging a walkout.
Sources said the BJP has made the rollout of the Women’s Reservation law and the Delimitation Bill its “priority” and does not want “other contentious Bills” to be pushed in the Monsoon Session beginning Monday. (File Photo) 
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