Women, RSS, local faces and issues: How BJP is climbing back post-Lok Sabha poll setback

BJP candidate Deepak Patel after securing victory from Phulpur on Saturday. (PTI)

An emphatic Maharashtra victory isn’t just a reaffirmation of the BJP leadership of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, plus J P Nadda, it is also set to put its ties with the RSS on an even keel.

Plus, the Modi government couldn’t have asked for a better result ahead of the Parliament Winter Session beginning on Monday, where the Congress-led Opposition was hoping to take it on over the Gautam Adani issue, especially following the indictment of the industrialist in the US on bribery charges, and the situation in Manipur.

Apart from the RSS help, party leaders credit the shift of focus to women voters and local leadership as the big reasons for the Maharashtra performance. So far BJP campaigns have been known to revolve around Modi, his popularity and governance record.

While Modi did only four rallies during the Assembly elections for the 90 seats in Haryana, he addressed a dozen in Maharashtra (for 288 seats) and six for the 81 seats in Jharkhand. Towards the end of the campaign this time, the Prime Minister was away on foreign official trips.

A senior BJP leader said the Congress and Rahul Gandhi failed to provide any “reassuring messages” to build on the INDIA bloc’s gains in the Lok Sabha, unlike the BJP’s “course correction”.

In earlier elections too, particularly Madhya Pradesh, the BJP has attributed its wins to “the silent women support base”, drawn to its vast network of welfare schemes, both state and Central, and financial aid. In Maharashtra, the Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana was introduced in this year’s Budget, with the poll promise of doubling the cash component if the alliance returned to power.

“The focus was on Devendra Fadnavis, our alliance partners and local issues in Maharashtra,” a BJP national office-bearer said, adding that a similarly focused strategy may have worked better in Jharkhand, where the campaign highlighted more of Modi, did not have a strong face against Hemant Soren, and raised issues that aligned more with its larger Hindutva campaign than resonating with the ground.

Ultimately, the Soren-led JMM held on to its loyal tribal support base.

Defending the party strategy, a BJP leader from Ranchi said the BJP had few choices in Jharkhand given that it didn’t have an incumbent chief ministerial face. “In such states, where we do not have a strong face against the Opposition, we have to speak more about the PM and the Centre.”

BJP leaders also attributed its second successive defeat in Jharkhand to the “demography” of the state. “It has become a state where no party can win a majority on its own. With tribals and Muslims constituting 26% and 14% respectively of the population, their consolidation always has an advantage. Tribals have historically associated with the JMM, with its bow and arrow symbol part of their psyche,” a leader involved in the Jharkhand campaign said.

Parvati constituency’s BJP candidate Madhuri Misal and Sidharth Shirole celebrate the victory of the Mahayuti alliance at the counting centre in Shivaji Nagar, Pune. (Express Photo by Arul Horizon)

He also rejected the view that the campaign centered around “illegal immigrants” backfired. “The BJP was essentially talking about tribal rights, but the electorate appears to have not connected with this. It’s a forward-looking issue and the BJP will be proved right on how damaging it is for the tribal population and their identity,” he said.

The BJP leader added that the BJP in-charge and co-in-charge of Jharkhand, Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Himanta Biswa Sarma, left no stone unturned, “visiting every constituency”.

The Mahayuti’s return to power in Maharashtra also bolsters the BJP’s claim that its governments rise above anti-incumbency. BJP president Nadda often refers to “pro-incumbency” as becoming a factor under Modi for the first time in 60 years.

Post-2014, the BJP has returned to power in Madhya Pradesh, Manipur, Nagaland, Puducherry, Tripura, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Assam, besides the current win in Maharashtra. In Madhya Pradesh and now Maharashtra, the BJP came back to power after having overturned losses with splits in rival parties.

In Haryana and Maharashtra, the BJP returned to power despite the two states not being its traditional strongholds, and despite their dominant communities seen as averse to the party.

BJP sources said that, going ahead, campaigning is going to remain organisation-driven rather than focused on personalities. “Yes, the aberrations sometimes helped the party in some elections, but it hurt us in the Lok Sabha, “ a senior party MP said.

A crucial aspect of this return-to-organisation is the coordination with the RSS, with a source calling it “exemplary” in Maharashtra. “The silent campaign by the RSS amplified the impact of the BJP’s message on the ground. The Sangh started the ground work and coordination immediately after the Lok Sabha results,” said a leader involved with the party campaign in Maharashtra.

After BJP national president Nadda’s comments – in an interview with The Indian Express – that the BJP did not need the RSS as much now, there was tension between the party and its ideological parent. But multiple rounds of discussions were held to smoothen things over.

“Both the Sangh and BJP realised that their cadres – overlapping in many places – needed to work together to counter the Maha Vikas Aghadi’s campaign, especially over the BJP being ‘anti-quota’ and ‘anti-Dalit’. Sangh volunteers actively worked in Haryana, in Maharashtra and in Jharkhand,” the leader added.