Himanta, his popularity, and polarisation: Behind BJP winning absolute majority in Assam for the first time
The NDA parties won all seats in the state where ethnic Assamese, tribal and Bengali-Hindu voters account for the bulk of the population, barring two.
Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma with party leaders and supporters in Guwahati. (PTI) For many who had read the writing on the wall during the Assam election, the question was not whether the BJP would return for a historic third term in power, but rather by how much. With Himanta Biswa Sarma at its helm, the party has surged to its strongest position in the state yet, set to cross the 100 mark with its allies in the 126-member Assam Assembly.
A decade after it first came to power in Assam, which also marked the first time it had ever come to power in a Northeastern state, the BJP has secured an absolute majority in the state. In both 2016 and 2021, it had secured 60 seats on its own and formed the government with its ally Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), along with the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) in 2016 and the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) in 2021, cobbling together a majority of 86 in 2016 and of 75 in 2021.
However, far from slowing down after a decade in power, it has now secured 82 seats itself. With another 10 from the BPF and another 10 from the AGP, it won a whopping 102 seats in the House.
This sweep — in which the NDA parties have won all seats in the state where ethnic Assamese, tribal and Bengali-Hindu voters account for the bulk of the population, barring two, of which one has gone to the Congress and the other to Congress ally Raijor Dal — is not just that of the BJP, but of Himanta Biswa Sarma.
The BJP-led alliance’s appeal in this election a cocktail of a sharp pitch against “illegal immigration” laced with shrill rhetoric against “Miya Muslims”, a term used colloquially and pejoratively to refer to Bengali-origin Muslims; a focus on development projects particularly mega road and bridge infrastructure projects and push for private investment and industry in the state; and a slew of welfare schemes, unprecedented in scale and reach in the state, especially cash transfers targeting women beneficiaries.
But along with all of these, Sarma’s personality was at the centre of the campaign, his aggressiveness tempered with his image as a benevolent “mama (maternal uncle)”, with him leading the alliance from the front. While the BJP will be back in power for the third time now, this was the first time that Sarma had campaigned as a Chief Minister seeking re-election, and he and the party built the momentum for a renewed and stronger wave for the BJP after a decade of its governments in the state.
This sweep has shrunk the Congress down to 19 seats in Assam, with the losses of its Assam face Gaurav Gogoi and the Leader of the Opposition in the outgoing Assembly, Debabrata Saikia, adding salt to its wounds. The Congress-led Opposition front won a total of 21 seats, with its ally Raijor Dal winning another two seats. Apart from the two main blocs, the AIUDF has won two seats, including by Badruddin Ajmal in Binnakandi — also its worst-ever performance since its formation — and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) has won Mandia, with former Congress MLA Sherman Ali getting elected.
Apart from the Congress’s Joy Prakash Das and Raijor Dal’s Akhil Gogoi, Opposition parties have only won in seats where minority voters constitute a bulk of the voters, reflecting a near-complete polarisation in the state.
After the BJP’s victory, Himanta Biswa Sarma — who himself won his Jalukbari seat for the sixth consecutive time by more than 89,000 votes — said, “This victory is an expression of support to development, women’s power worship, self-identity and strong support towards developed Assam. This great mandate strongly establishes the need for overall development and protection of indigenous people from Barak to Brahmaputra, and from upper to lower Assam.”
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