Unlike 2020-21, why BJP is unruffled by farmers’ protests this time around

“When Parliament session is over, the Lok Sabha is about to be dissolved, and elections are to be announced, there is no logic in making a demand for a law. It would have made sense had they protested after the new government was formed,” said a BJP leader. Another BJP insider said, “If some elements in the protest are wearing the mask of being farmers, they should remove it and state their real agenda.”

Back during the 2020-’21 protests, the BJP leadership was nervous about the farm protests as it was worried about its impact in Uttar Pradesh ahead of the Assembly elections. Top BJP leaders assumed the demonstrations could adversely affect its Jat support base in west UP. At the time, the BJP top brass told leaders from Haryana, Punjab, and UP that “disaffection among Jats” could affect at least 40 Lok Sabha seats in these states.

This time, the BJP’s confidence about minimising the impact of the protests comes from the fact that the Jayant Chaudhary-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) has joined hands with it. “The Bharat Ratna for Chaudhary Charan Singh, the Jat patriarch, will also defuse anger among Jat farmers, if any. The party does not see a big potential in the current agitation to have a similar impact,” said a party leader from UP.

Though the BJP says it is unperturbed, party leaders want to de-escalate the situation and not allow the farmers to block Delhi’s borders again. Union Agriculture Minister Arjun Munda said, “There may be some people there who want not a solution but want to see it as a problem. So, I will ask farmers to be cautious of people who want to create an adverse atmosphere.”

Haryana Home Minister Anil Vij hinted that the Centre was willing to talk to farmers but suggested that their intention seemed to be something else. “They are saying that they want to talk to the Central government. The Central government is coming here to talk to them. It is beyond comprehension as to why they wish to go to Delhi. Maybe their intention is something else,” he said.

A BJP leader said, “There are reports of talks going on between the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the BJP for the Lok Sabha polls. Such an alliance would have posted decent results in Punjab. Hence, this protest has perhaps been done with the hope that it paralyses the system. Since the epicentre of the farm agitation of 2021 was Punjab, Haryana, and west UP, there is an attempt to create the impression that these states are up in arms against the BJP.”

Hitting back at the Congress, which has targeted the ruling party over the farmers’ march, BJP Kisan Morcha president Rajkumar Chahar told The Indian Express, “The Modi government and the BJP have done more for farmers than anybody else … What has the Congress done?”

BJP campaign and Punjab unease

Sources in the BJP said the party would launch an intense campaign on “Opposition politics behind the protests”. The ruling party will reach out to eminent personalities and community leaders to convince voters that the demands are “illogical” because making MSP a legal guarantee will adversely affect farmers. Sources pointed out that no state government, including the AAP in Punjab, was ready to make it a legal guarantee.

But some leaders in Punjab admitted that the protests could hurt the party in the state, where it has struggled electorally. In 2020, the SAD walked out of the NDA over the now-repealed farm laws and contested the Punjab Assembly elections on its own in 2022. It won a record low of three seats in the 117-member Assembly, down from 15 in 2017. The BJP, which contested the elections in alliance with the Punjab Lok Congress of Captain Amarinder Singh, managed to bag just two seats, one less than its tally five years earlier.

Another section of BJP leaders said the “politically motivated protests” might trigger “counter-polarisation”. They said that since Jat Sikhs were largely a part of the protests, other communities could consolidate against it. In Uttar Pradesh, when the Jats joined the 2020-’21 agitation, others, including Gujjars, threw their weight behind the BJP in the 2021 Assembly elections.

“Even in the two Lok Sabha constituencies where Sikhs constitute a significant portion of the population, Lakhimpur and Pilibhit, the BJP won all the Assembly seats. Because other communities felt that they were trying to bully the government,” said a BJP leader from UP.

A BJP leader from Haryana said, “Jats also end up voting in significant numbers for the BJP in the Lok Sabha. Else, how did Bhupender Singh Hooda and Deepender Singh Hooda lose? And sometimes, when the assertion for a protest comes from the dominant caste in a state, other castes get polarised against them because of their insecurities. So, the BJP will do well though it will want this protest to end soon and amicably.”