Eyeing a hattrick in Assam, BJP banks on schemes, polarisation; Cong bets on change

Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has spearheaded the BJP’s campaign across the state, with the party contesting the polls with its two regional allies – the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), its partner in the Bodoland region, and Asom Gana Parishad (AGP).

The Congress has also stitched up its alliance with regional parties – the Assam Jatiya Parishad and Raijor Dal – along with the All Party Hill Leaders Conference and CPI(M) and CPI(ML). Assam Congress chief Gaurav Gogoi is leading the Opposition alliance unlike the previous elections in 2021, when the Congress-led Mahajot had lacked its face.

Gaurav, a three-time Lok Sabha MP and the Congress’s Deputy Leader in the Lower House, is also making his debut in the state Assembly election by contesting from the Jorhat seat.

Two significant players are contesting the polls independently this time, which include the Badruddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), which is a force in the Bengali-origin Muslim majority belts, and ex-BJP ally in Bodoland, the Pramod Boro-led United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL), which is fighting to retain its political space.

BJP, Congress planks

The BJP-led NDA’s campaign is essentially centred on twin planks: polarisation and development. Led by Himanta, the BJP has been making a pitch against “illegal immigration” and “infiltrators” while targeting “Miya Muslims”, a term used colloquially and pejoratively to refer to Bengali-origin Muslims.

The BJP dispensation has also highlighted its achievements on the development front, ranging from mega road and bridge infrastructure projects to push for private investment and industry, to its several welfare schemes, especially cash transfers for women beneficiaries.

In its campaign, the Congress has called for change, levelling allegations of misgovernance and corruption against the 10-year BJP regime, targeting Himanta and his family. It has also alleged a “prevailing climate of fear and political coercion” in the state.

One of the Congress’s main poll promises is to continue with the existing cash transfer schemes for women, even as the party has claimed that its delivery of schemes would not be “politically motivated”, which it has accused the BJP government of betraying during their implementation.

The Opposition has also tried to turn the demise of Assam superstar singer Zubeen Garg in Singapore last September into a poll issue, accusing the Himanta government of “failing to deliver justice” in this emotive matter.

Key regions

Among the core regions of the state, Upper Assam – home to primarily ethnic Assamese communities – is a key battleground in this election. In 2021, the BJP-AGP had won all but six out of 34 seats in the nine major districts across the region despite widespread discontent against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA).

The Opposition camp is banking on the Congress’s tie-up with the Raijor Dal and AJP – which had contested separately as the third front last time – to rebuild itself in Upper Assam, especially in the Ahom region where the leaders of all three allies are contesting. They face a tough battle because of the reach of the Himanta government’s key welfare schemes, including those for the tea garden communities, who play a decisive role in several seats in the region.

Results of 2021 Assembly polls

The Opposition has also tried to reach out to the tea groups – along with Tai Ahoms, Morans, Motoks, and Chutias – flagging that the government has not fulfilled the pledge of granting them the Scheduled Tribe (ST) status so far.

The NDA seems to have an edge in the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR), which accounts for 15 seats. Bodos are Assam’s single largest tribal community, with their outfits calling the shots in the BTR. The Congress has not tied up with any regional party, with party leaders admitting that its prospects are poor in the region.

The BJP is fighting from only four of these seats – Assembly Speaker Biswajit Daimary is the only Bodo leader it has fielded – with its ally BPF, which had swept the 2025 Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) elections –contesting the remaining 11 seats. Observers say that the BTC polls have traditionally been a pointer to the Assembly poll results in the region.

The UPPL – which was the BJP’s ally in 2021 – hopes to retain its support base, mounting an outreach to the BTR’s diverse communities, which include Bengali Hindus, Adivasis, Koch Rajbongshis and the Bengali-origin Muslim group which the party hopes would now rally behind it following the BPF’s alignment with the BJP.

Among the sizeable Bengali-origin Muslim voters of Lower Assam and Barak Valley, the then Congress-AIUDF combine had emerged in the 2021 polls as a formidable alliance that swept their pockets. While they still seem to be leaning towards the Congress while seeking a regime change, many also feel alienated by the party’s “non-committal approach” over issues concerning them.

Significantly, there is an emerging section among Bengali Muslims, which appears to believe that aligning themselves with the NDA could be a “safer bet” for them, given its “better chances” to form the government. Bengali Hindus of Barak Valley have been a traditional voter base of the BJP, which again hopes to consolidate their support this time.