Exit Poll: How close were predictions about Gujarat, Himachal results in 2017?

Five years ago, in 2017, the exit polls successfully predicted that the BJP would comfortably hold on to power in Gujarat despite a Congress surge and return to power in Himachal Pradesh.

Gujarat

Among the exit polls for Gujarat, the India Today-Axis My India survey predicted the lowest tally for the BJP at 99-113 and 62-82 constituencies for the Congress while News 24-Today’s Chanakya forecast 124-146 seats for the BJP, up 31 seats compared to its 2012 tally of 115 in the 182-member Assembly. The Congress, it added was likely to bag 47 seats. Times Now predicted 113 seats for the BJP and 66 seats for the Congress. The ABP-CSDS survey said the Congress would win 64 seats while the BJP would return to power with 117 seats.

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How things panned out: The BJP ended up returning to power with a reduced tally of 99 seats — with the India Today survey figures right on target — despite its vote share increasing from 47.9 per cent in 2012 to 49.1 per cent. The Congress won 77 constituencies, with its vote share increasing from 38.9 per cent in 2012 to 41.4 per cent.

Himachal Pradesh

The exit polls successfully predicted that the BJP would win the hill state. At six seats, News 24-Today’s Chanakya predicted the Congress would get trounced while both Chanakya and India Today-Axis My India predicted a maximum of 55 seats for the BJP. In 2012, the Congress had won 36 of the 68 seats and the BJP 26. Times Now said the Congress would win 17 constituencies and the BJP 51 while ABP gave the Congress 29 constituencies and the BJP 38.

How things panned out: The exit polls got it mostly right, with the BJP winning 44 seats. The Congress won 20, and the CPI(M) and Independents won one each.