EXCLUSIVE: AIADMK faces split threat as BJP pushes for alliance with Vijay’s TVK

Now, with TVK at 108 seats falling short of the 118-seat majority mark and coalition arithmetic becoming unavoidable, the BJP is seen backing efforts to push the AIADMK toward supporting Vijay instead of allowing Congress and Left parties to become the pillars of a new government.

The crisis intensified after senior AIADMK leader Leema Rose Martin publicly acknowledged on Tuesday night that talks were underway between TVK and AIADMK – a revelation that appeared accidental, though not necessarily unintended. Her statement drew immediate attention because her son-in-law, Aadhav Arjuna, is one of Vijay’s closest political associates and is understood to be directly involved in the negotiations from the TVK side. Her son is an MLA from Puducherry, part of NDA alliance.

A meeting of AIADMK MLAs held Tuesday remained inconclusive, and a follow-up meeting is scheduled for Wednesday amid fears that a section of legislators may break away if party general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami, or EPS, refuses to back a coalition arrangement with Vijay.

Multiple senior AIADMK sources said the emerging pro-TVK bloc inside the party is being driven by former law minister C Ve Shanmugam. But he is not the real face of the move. The man behind is the influential western Tamil Nadu leader S P Velumani, known for his money and muscle power in Coimbatore, and for his direct links with Delhi, it is learnt. The former AIADMK health minister, C Vijayabaskar, and AIADMK MLA Kamaraj from Nannilam are among the key faces backing the idea, it is learnt.

But party insiders said Shanmugham is not the sole face of the rebellion. “Velumani is the key force here,” said a senior AIADMK functionary. “He commands significant numbers and organisational influence.”

According to sources close to the dissident camp, if Wednesday’s meeting fails to produce a consensus, a section of MLAs may move toward formally supporting TVK “even at the cost of a split”.

Of the party’s 47 MLAs, AIADMK insiders estimate that at least 10 may continue firmly behind EPS, but several others – including some considered loyalists – increasingly believe the party should not miss the opportunity to enter government through a coalition with TVK.

The arguments being advanced within the party are bluntly practical. “People have clearly voted for Vijay. Why should AIADMK stand outside when TVK itself has reached out?” one MLA said. Others argue that joining a Vijay-led coalition would allow AIADMK to secure cabinet berths and administrative relevance at a moment when TVK lacks governing experience and would require experienced hands.

One legislator claimed that Velumani alone could influence more than 21 MLAs, while Shanmugham could bring more than 10, potentially enough to trigger a formal split and create a new alignment around supporting TVK, which is in need of 10 MLAs.

EPS’s reluctance, however, stems from both political and symbolic concerns. As a former Chief Minister and current AIADMK chief, joining a government headed by Vijay would effectively place him under a first-time political entrant. Sources said that even under the most favourable negotiation, EPS could at best expect a Deputy Chief Minister’s post and a limited number of cabinet portfolios.

Meanwhile, Tamil Nadu Raj Bhavan has remained cautious. Top sources said the Governor is expected to return to Chennai only after there is greater clarity on whether TVK can demonstrate support beyond the majority mark.