As Eknath Shinde strikes one more time, will NDA equations shift again?

Sources said the rebel MPs were trying to convince Rajabhau Waje, the Nashik MP, to join them. “We are optimistic about him joining the rebels,” said a source, though Waje, during the day, attended the parliamentary party meeting along with Arvind Sawant, Anil Desai, and Sanjay Raut.

Sources said another reason for the delay was that Nimbalkar had sought more time to join them for the formal meeting as he is awaiting the verdict in the murder case of his father, Pawan Raje Nimbalkar, which is expected on June 20. He is expected to return to Delhi only after the special CBI court pronounces its verdict.

The rebel MPs are learnt to have drafted the letter they will submit to Birla. In the letter, they have cited the simmering anger about the way the Sena (UBT) leadership has been functioning for their decision to break away, sources said. They have pointed to instances in which senior leaders had to quit the party over their differences with the leadership. Under Uddhav Thackeray as working president, the Shiv Sena saw prominent leader Narayan Rane leave the party in 2005, Raj Thackeray walk out in 2006, and Eknath Shinde rebel in 2022 with a large group of MLAs and MPs.

If Waje — who on Wednesday said he was still with Uddhav — also joins them, the rebel group will have seven MPs, one more than the required two-thirds of the nine-member parliamentary party, before they make the formal claim. Under the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution, two-thirds of the legislature party needs to merge with another party to avoid disqualification.

If the merger is formalised, the Shiv Sena will have 13-14 MPs, making it the largest NDA constituent after the TDP (16 MPs) and the JD-U (12 MPs). If the Nationalist Citizens Party of India (NCPI), the outfit that Trinamool Congress’s (TMC) 20 rebel MPs have joined, is also recognised, that will become the largest NDA constituent.

Why this is significant

The development assumes significance in the backdrop of the intensifying speculation about a possible Cabinet reshuffle after Prime Minister Narendra Modi returns from the G-7 Summit in France on Friday.

With the Sena managing to increase the NDA tally, which is 293 at the moment, the ruling alliance will move closer to the two-thirds majority mark of 362. Once the 20-member TMC rebels are recognised, the NDA tally is up to 313. Several leaders in the Sena said the developments in Delhi show Shinde remains the NDA’s key strategist despite the BJP’s growing dominance. This will provide him with the much-needed leverage he seems to have lost after the BJP’s dominant show in the Assembly elections in which it won 132 seats in the 288-member House.

BJP leaders have maintained that the party’s resolve to increase its parliamentary strength became important after the legislative embarrassment in April, when the Constitution (One Hundred and Thirty-First Amendment) Bill, 2026, failed to clear the Lok Sabha. To push this Bill, which is linked to delimitation and operationalising the Women’s Reservation Act,  in the coming Parliament session, the government wants to get to two-thirds strength in the House.

A strengthened Sena may also shift the dynamics in the Mahayuti alliance in the state. A senior Sena leader said many people had begun writing off Shinde after the Assembly elections in which the BJP emerged as the bigger force in Maharashtra. “But Shinde has once again shown that he knows how to change the game when people think the battle is over. Shinde hit a masterstroke.”

Though the Sena (UBT) on Thursday tried to push back, saying the six would be asked to explain their absence despite a whip being issued, the rebel said a whip is applicable only for proceedings in the House and not internal party meetings because of how the Supreme Court has interpreted “voting” and “abstaining from voting” in the Tenth Schedule.

The apex court in its judgment in the Kihoto Hollohan vs Zachillhu case in 1992 upheld the constitutional validity of the Tenth Schedule, but clarified that disqualification under it applies specifically to a member’s conduct in the House.  “The whip is relevant only in legislative proceedings, not party forums. A party meeting, internal consultation or an organisational gathering is not ‘the House’,” said a source.