Despite Kejriwal push, why AAP footprint is shrinking in Gujarat

While the AAP struggles to keep its flock together, the Congress continues to be the principal Opposition in the House, though with a diminished strength of 12 after five MLAs defected from the party.

AAP woes

Troubles started for the AAP in 2024 when Alpesh Kathiriya and Dharmik Malaviya — both leaders associated with the Patidar agitation led by Hardik Patel — quit the party. Kathiriya and Malaviya had unsuccessfully contested the 2022 Assembly elections from Varachha Road and Olpad respectively.

The AAP got another jolt in June last year when its Botad MLA Umesh Makwana resigned from the party, days after Patidar leader Gopal Italia retained the Visavadar Assembly seat in a bypoll necessitated by the defection of AAP MLA Bhupendra Bhayani to the BJP. Makwana was later suspended by the AAP.

Earlier this month, the AAP was stung by the resignation of its Kisan Sangathan president Raju Karpada, 10 days after being released on bail. Karpada spent 108 days in jail in connection with an attempted murder and rioting case linked to violence that erupted during the Kisan Mahapanchayat in Hadadad village of Botad district.

Karpada’s exit has triggered a war of words between him and the AAP, whose state general secretary Manoj Sorathiya alleged that the resignation came “to secure Karpada’s family in an ongoing criminal case”. “An internal survey shows that 60% of the respondents believe Karpada’s exit would not impact the AAP. People understand the BJP’s working style of breaking Opposition leaders and MLAs,” he said.

Karpada hit back, saying Sorathiya’s claim did not hold water. “I had campaigned for Italia and led the Hadadad agitation. My court hearings have been ongoing for over a year and a half,” he said.

On Monday, Karpada told The Indian Express that he was open to joining another party after consulting farmer leaders. “My political standing is not important. The farmers’ trust in me is,” he added.

Another AAP leader, Pravin Ram, who was released from jail along with Karpada, said it was common to see defections from a party undergoing consolidation. “Such developments create temporary unease among supporters when a party is in the Opposition. Once we return to the ground, the people will see our commitment,” he said, adding that farmers’ anger would be directed at the BJP for “orchestrating” Karpada’s exit.

Veteran farmer leader Sagar Rabari, who is currently associated with the AAP, told The Indian Express that the impact of Karpada’s exit would depend on how the party responds now. “Rajubhai (Karpada)’s departure will impact his followers but farmers are concerned about their welfare. We will reach out to farmers at the district- and taluka-level over the India-US trade deal. There will be no long-term impact of Karpada’s resignation till the AAP keeps raising farmers’ issues,” he added.

Despite such defections, the AAP is putting up a brave face, with Sorathiya claiming it would “not affect the party’s core voters and supporters”. “In the upcoming local body elections, the voters are looking for an alternative to the BJP,” he added.

Sorathiya, who belongs to the Patidar community, said the AAP plans to contest all seats in the SMC. “We are working hard in 20 of the 30 wards and aim to win 80 seats. The Congress is out of the contest and our fight will be directly with the BJP. Those who switched to the BJP are not visible anymore as their political careers are over,” he said.

The 2015 Patidar agitation has seemingly influenced Surat’s political landscape. In the 2015 SMC polls, the Congress rode on anti-BJP sentiment among the Patidar community and won 36 seats as against the BJP’s 80. Five years later, the Congress was reduced to zero while the BJP won 93 and the AAP emerged victorious in 28 wards.

Saurashtra factor

Four of the five Assembly seats — Jamjodhpur (Hemant Khava), Gariadhar (Sudhir Vaghani), Visavadar (Italia) and Botad (Makwana) — that the AAP had won in 2022 fall in Saurashtra – a region where farmers’ issues are closely linked to politics. The only sitting AAP MLA from outside the region is tribal leader Chaitar Vasava, who won the Dediapada seat.

On Makwana’s resignation, Rabari said the party faced several issues with him. “We have become more active in Botad since Makwana’s suspension. We also have a candidate for the next election,” he said. Senior party leaders however admit in private that Karpada’s exit would result in “short-term damage”.

An AAP leader said the party’s “priority” continues to remain Saurashtra, where it was “getting a good response from the people”. “We have a good vote share even in the seats we lost. This increases the scope of turning these losses into wins in the future,” the leader added.

However, the BJP’s push in the region has also seemingly compounded problems for the AAP. In a move seen as consolidating voters from the region in its favour, the BJP allotted nine of 26 ministries to leaders from the Saurashtra-Kutch region in its last year’s state Cabinet reshuffle.

Kejriwal’s focus

Despite these setbacks, AAP national convener Arvind Kejriwal, who has been visiting Gujarat regularly to boost the party, has claimed that the AAP remains “on track to form the next government” in the 2028 state Assembly polls.

Echoing Kejriwal’s views, an AAP leader said the party has seen “a lot of support” in South Gujarat, especially in Bharuch, Surat, Tapi, Navsari, Valsad and Narmada. “We are in a better position there as compared to 2022,” the leader said.