The NDA’s landslide victory in Bihar has come as a shot in the arm for not just the alliance and the BJP but also for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The failure of the BJP to get a majority in last year’s Lok Sabha elections is now well into the past, with the party mopping up wins in Maharashtra, Haryana, Delhi and now Bihar since then – apart from in Odisha, which held polls simultaneously with the general elections.
Not just that, in almost all the state polls it has fought since the May 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has bettered its performance from the previous Assembly polls. In Bihar, the BJP had won 74 of the 110 seats it contested in 2020, with a strike rate of 67.27%. This time, it looks set to win 89 of its 101 constituencies, improving its strike rate to an impressive 88.11%.
In Bihar, the BJP will also draw satisfaction from the fact that its gamble on LJP (RV) chief Chirag Paswan paid off, even as the Opposition, led by the RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, was battered. This could help the BJP prepare ground for life beyond ally Nitish Kumar.
Besides, the results will set the tone for the string of state polls to follow next year, which is good news for the BJP as it is not a predominant force in them, barring in Assam. In West Bengal, which is up next, the BJP faces a tough challenge from the ruling Trinamool Congress; in Kerala, the contest is between the Left Democratic Front and the Congress-led United Democratic Front; and in Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led coalition including the Congress will be taking on the AIADMK, the dominant partner in the alliance with the BJP.
The INDIA bloc, in contrast, looks more fractured and direction-less than ever. Bihar was the one state that the Opposition alliance was counting on, with the RJD having emerged as the single-largest party in the 2020 Assembly elections and putting up a strong fight on the ground.
Serious questions were being raised by the INDIA bloc parties already Friday, with Rahul Gandhi’s “vote chori” campaign seen as misplaced and misfiring. The Congress would now be in a weaker position to bargain in the other states which go to polls.
Senior BJP leader and Lok Sabha MP Sanjay Jaiswal told the Indian Express:
“It’s good news for us in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu where we are going to face crucial battles. Opposition parties will fear the BJP, and this is important after the narrative they created following the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.”
BJP Rajya Sabha MP from Uttar Pradesh Radha Mohan Singh Agarwal said the Bihar results had negated the “vote chori” allegations by Rahul Gandhi. “Now, these charges will die down. The voter turnout in Bihar went up despite such a high-decibel campaign by the Opposition… This election also proved that there is no acceptance for Rahul Gandhi,” Agarwal said.
He added that the NDA’s performance despite what is considered a 30-plus percentage base for the Mahagathbandhan also proved that the NDA is accepted by every class and caste, and that “the narrative built by the Opposition over a threat to the Constitution (by a BJP government) has been rejected by voters”.
Besides, the BJP’s allies will once again defer to the national party at the Centre. “This has secured the BJP government at the Centre for the next four years, and neither Nitish Kumar nor Chandrababu Naidu (TDP leader and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister) can pressure us now,” Agarwal said.
BJP’s rising graph since LS polls
The BJP’s turnaround since the 2024 Lok Sabha results has been evident in the state polls that have followed.
The Haryana Assembly elections of October 2024 saw the BJP not just retain power but win 48 of the 89 seats it contested – 8 seats more than in 2019, when it had failed to win a majority.
In the Maharashtra elections held in November 2024, the BJP won 132 of the 149 seats it contested, steering the NDA back to power in a state where the alliance had suffered heavy losses just months ago in the Lok Sabha. This was more than the BJP’s tally in the 2019 Assembly elections in the state, when it had won 105 of the 164 seats it contested, and missed forming the government, before splitting the Shiv Sena and doing so.
While the BJP did not win in the the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections of September-October 2024, its tally of 29 of 43 seats was higher than 25 of the 37 seats it contested in J&K before the abrogation of Article 370 and reconstitution of the House.
In the elections held in Delhi in early 2025, the BJP came to power after more than two decades winning 48 of the 68 seats it contested. The BJP’s performance marked a massive upswing from 2020, when it had won just 8 of the 67 seats it fought in the Assembly elections.
In the elections held after the Lok Sabha polls, it is only in Jharkhand where the BJP lost, as well as didn’t increase its tally. It won 21 of the 68 seats in elections held in November 2024, with the JMM coming to power. In 2019, the BJP had won 29 of the 75 seats it contested.
Jaiswal said the NDA was conscious of the bigger task it has now. “This victory means people have full faith in the NDA. We have to fulfill a big responsibility in making Bihar a more industrial-friendly state, so that we can provide as many jobs as possible. Everyone in the NDA is responsible for the future of Bihar.”
In Bihar, the BJP will also draw satisfaction from the fact that its gamble on LJP (RV) chief Chirag Paswan paid off, even as the Opposition, led by the RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, was battered. This could help the BJP prepare ground for life beyond ally Nitish Kumar.
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