Cong 17 seats in UP deal: Why even SP help may not take party far, going by 2019

Lok Sabha poll performance: 2019

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, barring its win in the Raebareli stronghold from where Sonia Gandhi was the candidate, the Congress lost the remaining 15 seats it contested. While the BJP won 14 of the 17 seats in the Congress share now, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won 2.

In fact, the Congress could cross more than 15% of the vote share in just 5 seats – the highest being Raebareli at 56.5%; followed by Amethi at 44.1% (from where Rahul Gandhi lost to the BJP’s Smriti Irani); and Kanpur at 37.9%. In 9 seats, it did not even cross the 10% mark.

The BJP, on the other hand, won 11 of these seats with more than 50% of the vote share.

2019 LS vote shares and winners

Even combining the SP and Congress vote shares, the INDIA bloc would have come out the winner in just 1 seat, Barabanki, implying that even the SP doesn’t have much of a hold in these constituencies. Incidentally, the SP did not field any candidate in Raebareli and Amethi, out of consideration for the Gandhis.

One positive for the Congress this time could be that BSP’s sitting MP Danish Ali is now contesting on its ticket from Amroha. Ali, who won last time by 63,248 votes, is likely to be fielded from the seat again.

In 2019, the SP, BSP and RLD had contested in alliance. The SP had contested 7 of the 17 seats in the Congress share this time, won more than 30% of the vote share in 4, but failed to win any. The BSP, which also contested 7 of these 17 seats, won 2 but had a sizeable presence in terms of vote share across all. The RLD, too, did not win any seat, but its vote share was significant in Mathura, where it managed more than a third of the vote, which means its INDIA bloc exit could prove significant here.

Lok Sabha poll performance: 2014, 2009

The 2014 polls were not significantly better for the Congress either in UP. It had contested 13 of the 17 seats in its share this time, and won only the Gandhi family bastions of Amethi and Raebareli. The remaining were won by the BJP. In the 13 seats at the time, the Congress secured more than 30% of the vote share in just 4 seats, and less than 10% of the vote share in 6 seats.

2014, 2009 LS vote shares and winners

Other than a Congress-RLD alliance at the time, there were no major tie-ups in the state, with the BSP and SP contesting separately – which means that though the votes were split across more parties, the BJP was still able to consolidate enough votes on the back of the Narendra Modi wave in 2014. The combined vote shares of the Congress and SP may have amounted to just 1 additional seat, Allahabad.

Incidentally, in 2014 too, the SP did not field candidates in Amethi and Raebareli.

In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, when the Congress returned to power at the Centre, the party’s popularity was also reflected in most of the 17 seats it is contesting in UP this time. It won 6 of these 17 seats, contesting on its own, with 4 going to the BSP, 3 to the BJP, and 2 each to the SP and RLD. Besides, the Congress secured more than 25% of the vote share in 8 seats, and more than 70% of the votes in Amethi and Raebareli.

If the Congress and SP’s vote shares of 2009 were combined, they could have won 11 of these 17 seats.

Assembly poll performance: 2022

The SP will likely derive confidence from its 2022 Assembly poll results, when it won 111 seats, though the BJP returned to power with 255 seats in the 403-member House. Aside from the SP-RLD tie-up, there were no major alliances in this election.

In the Assembly segments that make up the 17 parliamentary seats offered to the Congress this time,the Akhilesh Yadav-led party won more than 30% of the vote share in as many as 11. The same juxtaposition for the Congress shows it got less than 5% of the votes in 12 of the 17 seats in 2022, and less than 15% across all.

Even if the SP’s votes do transfer to the Congress, their combined 2022 Assembly segment vote shares indicate the combine leading the NDA in just 4 seats.

2022, 2017 combined Assembly segment vote shares and winners

The 2017 Assembly polls – three years after the BJP rode the Modi wave to power – are perhaps the best example of the Congress-SP alliance working. Contesting 311 and 114 seats, respectively, the SP and Congress won 47 and 7 seats each, against the BJP’s landslide of 312 seats. However, the Congress appeared to benefit from a transfer of votes from the SP, with its vote share in these 17 seats higher than what it would get in 2022.

However, given that the BJP’s win was so comprehensive, the Congress and SP’s combined vote shares were still greater than the NDA’s in only 2 of the 17 parliamentary constituencies.