As Chandra Shekhar ‘Aazad’ prepares to set off on UP yatra, can he shake up Opposition math?

ASP (Kanshi Ram) leaders said the party’s election campaign would focus on Dalits, Muslims, and the Extremely Backward Class (EBC) groups. The party plans to field at least 100 EBC candidates, with sources saying that representation to minorities and the backward classes will be given in proportion to their population. The ASP (Kanshi Ram) is also planning to field 50 Dalit candidates in general seats, which will be a strong statement to the Opposition INDIA bloc. Party leaders said they had managed to build an organisational setup in all districts and Assembly constituencies, going down to the mandal and booth level.

Chandra Shekhar’s popularity, now combined with ambitions to expand his party’s footprint, has made the  Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress take note, with sources saying that some SP MPs recently told party chief Akhilesh Yadav to start a conversation with the Nagina MP. However, the former Uttar Pradesh CM brushed aside the suggestion.

One of the SP’s major poll planks is PDA, or its focus on the Pichhda (the backward classes), Dalits, and Alpsankyak (minorities). In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the SP-Congress combine had benefitted immensely from the success of its campaign over the alleged threat that the BJP’s return to power would pose if it returned to power, with the INDIA bloc winning 43 of the 80 parliamentary seats in the state. Leaders from both the SP and the Congress said the campaign had helped them get Dalit votes. But now the ASP (Kanshi Ram) poses a threat to the Opposition as it can divide these very votes.

Chandra Shekhar told The Indian Express that concerns about his party “harming” the INDIA bloc were “pointless”. “Where is the Opposition? They contest against each other in Bengal, Kerala, Delhi, Haryana… Everyone wants the chair of power. We made efforts for a united Opposition in UP in 2022 (Assembly polls) and 2024 (Lok Sabha elections) … I don’t believe that votes transfer between allies,” he said.

“How many bypolls have they (Congress and SP) won since 2024? In politics, no one says thank you. Everyone says sweet things when they need you. If anyone wants our help to defeat the BJP, they should come and talk to us,” he said.

With the Mayawati-led BSP steadily declining in UP — its vote share fell from 22.23% in 2017 to 12.88% in 2022, with the vote share roughly proportional to the population of Jatav-Ravidasi Dalits, who are its core support base — everyone, from the SP and the Congress to the ASP (Kanshi Ram) is trying to fill that space.

The SP and Congress have both been working to reach out to Dalits by regularly invoking Dr B R Ambedkar and Kanshi Ram. Most recently, both parties held programmes across the state on Ambedkar’s birth anniversary on April 14. In this melee for Dalit votes, ASP (Kanshi Ram) leaders said they would affect the SP-Congress combination and launch a “no-holds-barred attack” on the INDIA bloc. “We know that we can’t get upper-caste votes, so we won’t even target that. That will go to the BJP despite the efforts we make. Our main focus will be on the Dalit, Muslim, and EBC communities in the state,” said a senior party leader.

State Congress leaders acknowledged that the ASP (Kanshi Ram) could be worrying for the Opposition alliance. “We know that Chandra Shekhar is a popular leader. The two main Opposition parties have no leadership from the Dalit community that can attract crowds. Chandra Shekhar definitely has that sway over the electorate and Dalits, especially the younger members of the Dalit community,” said a senior leader.

The Nagina MP’s recent rallies in different cities, including Barabanki, have seen large crowds. “In 2024, when the INDIA bloc did well, it was because Dalits voted for the Congress and the SP due to the campaign led by Rahul Gandhi on the threat to the Constitution. But that vote may shift, considering we will have a Dalit leader in the fray,” said a Congress MP.

The SP is also aware of the impact Chandra Shekhar may have, with some in favour of holding discussions with him. However, the top leadership, including Akhilesh, are not in favour of an alliance. There was speculation of a pre-poll alliance between the SP-Congress and ASP (Kanshi Ram) in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, but it did not materialise. In the elections, Chandra Shekhar won Nagina with a 51.19% vote share, while the BJP finished second with 36%. But barring this one election, the party has yet to politically find its feet in UP. In the 2022 UP Assembly elections, the ASP contested 110 seats in alliance with the AIMIM and other smaller parties and failed to open its account, losing deposit in all 110 seats, managing a negligible 0.47% vote share in those seats.

A Muslim SP leader in west UP said he was in favour of the party exploring a tie-up with Chandra Shekhar. “What is the harm? If he comes on board, then the INDIA alliance will benefit as it will likely add a few thousand Dalit votes in each constituency.”

“Yes, there is some attachment to the blue flag for Dalits and they are showing up at his (Chandra Shekhar) rallies. But I don’t think they will vote for a party that is not a force against the BJP. The community wouldn’t waste its votes on a party that is not on the ground and not in a position to defeat the BJP. Apart from that, there is no clarity on his ideological position. For Dalit voters, ideological position matters,” said a senior Dalit leader in the SP.

Asked if Chandra Shekhar could erode the Muslim support of his party, UP Congress leader Shahnawaz Alam said Muslims who know their priorities will not be misled. “The social equation that the Congress and the INDIA bloc possess to defeat the BJP is unmatched,” said Alam, the former UP Congress Minority Department chairman.