Can Himanta Biswa Sarma’s offensive be Gaurav Gogoi’s opportunity? Ambition, bad blood, and the battle for Assam

The first was in a conference room at the Chief Minister’s Secretariat, where CM Himanta Biswa Sarma shared the stage with five senior Cabinet ministers. The CM shared the findings of a Special Investigation Team that had been tasked with investigating his allegation that Assam Congress president and MP Gaurav Gogoi is a “Pakistan agent.” This was the culmination of a year-long campaign in which Sarma took no prisoners: not just Gogoi, but also his wife Elizabeth Colburn Gogoi and their two children have come under intense public scrutiny, with their religion and nationality brought into question, and the couple’s personal documentation — including employment records, passports, and Aadhaar cards — made public.

The second, held a day later in Guwahati’s Rajiv Bhawan saw Gogoi, accompanied by fellow Congress MPs Pradyut Bordoloi and Rakibul Hussain, shrug off the litany of charges, claim higher moral ground — “we know about your children too but we don’t want to talk about it” — and lean on the legacy of his father, former CM Tarun Gogoi.

And then he turned the gun on Sarma with the Congress’s own new campaign specifically targeting Sarma and his entrepreneur wife Riniki Bhuyan Sarma, accusing him of entering politics to enrich his family and “grabbing land” across the state “in his family’s name”.

It was a showdown written on the cards, brewing ever since it became clear that Gogoi would take on a bigger role in state politics after the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Their relationship has been marked by bad blood and tainted by thwarted ambitions. Himanta was a key Tarun Gogoi confidant who fell out with him and eventually joined the BJP after the former CM began promoting his son. There have been wars of words and name-calling over the years, with this being the most sustained and bitter offensive yet.

Why Congress may benefit

This personalised politicking has given the Congress something it has not had in Assam since Tarun Gogoi died in 2020: a clear and distinct “face”. It had fought the 2021 election, as had the BJP, without a CM candidate and with a set of leaders at the fore: along with Gaurav Gogoi, there was Nagaon MP Pradyut Bordoloi, then Congress president Ripun Bora; and Debabrata Saikia, MLA and the son of another former CM, Hiteswar Saikia.

“The Congress may suffer from some of the allegations and insinuations that the Chief Minister is making, but it is definitely benefitting from his framing this contest as one between him and Gaurav Gogoi. It is building Gogoi’s public personality. There may be many other issues that the Congress may have, including internal coordination, but there is no debate that he is the face of the party and the campaign,” said a senior leader.

This election is the first major test of Gogoi’s leadership in state politics, even though he has been an MP since 2014. In June 2024, he was placed in charge of the floundering state Congress unit, which has suffered from a string of losses. Its biggest moment of victory was Gogoi’s 2024 win from the Jorhat Lok Sabha constituency after an all-out contest in which the BJP charge had been led by Sarma. For political observers, that marked Gogoi’s entry into Assam politics in a big way, testing new electoral waters after his previous constituency and the family pocket borough of Kaliabor was redrawn and renamed in the recent delimitation exercise. Gogoi represented Kaliabor for two terms.

Nonetheless, the Congress has been plagued with problems over the years: a steady erosion in the organisation, with workers and leaders crossing over to the BJP; difficulties in forming successful alliances with other parties, and building its own narrative to effectively counter the BJP juggernaut. Gogoi himself is seen as more metropolitan, having grown up in Delhi, and reserved, someone who has been at a distance from grassroots politics in the state over the years.

“There has been a big morale boost with him becoming the state president, someone who can take on Himanta Biswa Sarma. But time may be against him because there has been little time to strengthen the party with its limited resources,” said a young Congress leader.