The BJP’s win in the Haryana elections on Tuesday was the result of several factors but, in the end, it came down to its ability to maintain its dominance in the urban seats and hold on to the constituencies in rural areas.
The party swept the seats bordering Delhi, winning 18 of the 20 constituencies. It won Gohana, Sonipat, Kharkhauda, and Rai in Sonipat district; Gurgaon, Sohna, Badshahpur, and Pataudi in Gurgaon district; Palwal and Hodal in Palwal district; Faridabad, Faridabad NIT, Badhkal, Ballabhgarh, and Tigaon in Faridabad district; and Rewari, Bawal, and Kosli in Rewari district. It wrested control of five of these from the Congress: Sonipat, Gohana, Kharkhauda, Faridabad NIT, and Rewari. One of the biggest losses for the Congress came in Hodal, where state Congress president Udai Bhan lost to the BJP’s Harinder Singh by 2,595 votes.
Ahirwal
The BJP also swept its stronghold of Ahirwal, winning nine of the 10 seats in the region, three more than its 2019 tally. The Congress’s Manju Choudhary secured the sole seat from the region — Nangal Chaudhry — for the Opposition party.
In Ateli, Arti Singh Rao, the daughter of Union Minister Rao Inderjit Singh won by 2,500 votes, with Bahujan Samaj Party’s Attar Lal coming second. Trends showed that Arti, who had declared before elections she would contest the polls with or without the BJP, was behind Lal until the final few rounds of counting.
In Rewari, the Congress’s sitting MLA Chiranjeev Rao, the son of former Cabinet Minister Captain Ajay Yadav, lost to the BJP’s Laxman Yadav by 28,769 votes. He won the seat in 2019 by a margin of 1,317 votes.
GT Road belt
The BJP also increased its hold on the “Grand Trunk Road belt” by winning 16 of the 25 Assembly seats across six districts. This was three more than the 2019 tally of 13.
A BJP stronghold over the years, major cities such as Ambala, Panipat, Karnal, Kurukshetra, and Sonipat fall under this region. Unlike the other regions where different castes dominate, the GT Road belt, comprising the Assembly seats of Ambala City, Ambala Cantonment, Mulana, Radaur, Naraingarh, Sadhaura, Jagadhri, Yamunanagar, Shahbad, Thanesar, Nilokheri, Pundri, Indri, Gharaunda, Karnal, Panipat Rural, Panipat City, Samalkha, Ganaur, Rai, Kalka, Panchkula and Israna, is demographically different and has a significant population of OBCs and upper castes such as Brahmins, Baniyas, and Khatris.
Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini’s seat Ladwa is in this belt. The CM won the constituency with a 47.4% vote share while sitting MLA Mewa Singh of the Congress got 36.55%. The Congress that won nine seats in the region in 2019 is down to eight while one constituency — Ganaur — went to an Independent.
Nuh out of BJP reach
The only region the BJP could not breach is Mewat that comprises the constituencies of Nuh, Ferozepur Jhirka, and Punhana.
In Nuh, the epicentre of last year’s communal clashes and their aftermath, Deputy Congress Legislature Party (CLP) leader in the last House Aftab Ahmed defeated Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) candidate Tahir Hussain, the son of BJP leader and Waqf Board administrator Zakir Hussain, by 46,963 votes. In Ferozepur Jhirka, the Congress’s Mamman Khan defeated the BJP’s Naseem Ahmed by 98,441 votes, the biggest victory margin in this election.
The BJP’s share in these seats also decreased, with its former minister Sanjay Singh getting 15,902 votes in Nuh, less than the 48,273 votes the party had polled when it fielded Zakir Hussain in 2019. Likewise, the party got 15,486 fewer votes than in 2019 in Ferozepur Jhirka, and in Punhana, polled 5,072 votes against the 21,421 it received in 2019.
Jat belt
The core Jat land is made up of 14 seats in Rohtak, Sonipat, and Jhajjar districts. Of these constituencies, the Congress won eight, the BJP four, and two went to Independent candidates. With Jats appearing to consolidate behind the Congress, the BJP banked on non-Jat votes across the state, which appeared to work for it. However, it also did not get washed away in the Jat belt as the four seats in the core Jat land show.
Among the Jat-dominated seats, including the core area and other parts of the state, that the Congress won are Kaithal, Julana, Tohana, and Garhi Sampla-Kiloi. The BJP took constituencies such as Uchana Kalan, Safidon, and Gohana. The loss in Uchana Kalan was a shock for the Congress as one of its prominent Jat leaders, Brijendra Singh, lost to the BJP’s Devender Chatar Bhuj Attri by the thinnest margin of 32 votes.
Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda retained the constituency of Garhi Sampla-Kiloi while in Kaithal the Congress’s Rajya Sabha MP Randeep Singh Surjewala’s son Aditya Surjewala won his debut contest.
Party supporters celebrate outside the BJP HQ after its victory in the Haryana Assembly polls, in New Delhi on Tuesday. (Express Photo by Tashi Tobgyal) 
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