For BJP, TMC’s collapse brings gains, but some see a need for caution

The concerns are chiefly two-fold. First, a section pointed out the “bad optics” of the BJP’s role in engineering this split. On June 8, as several TMC rebel MPs gathered for a meeting at Union Minister and BJP’s West Bengal poll in-charge Bhupender Yadav’s Delhi home, West Bengal Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari also dropped in to meet them. He met some of them again later that night at TMC MP Satabdi Roy’s home.

TMC MP Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar has told The Indian Express that the rebels, who claim that their strength is 20, have, as of now, decided “to be with the NDA, giving it full support”. She added, “Later, we (rebel MPs) will sit together and decide what kind of support it should be.” Sources in the BJP said more TMC MPs were expected to jump ship as Mamata Banerjee is in a “precarious” situation when it comes to the demand to sideline her nephew and heir apparent Abhishek. This demand has come even from the beleaguered TMC chief’s loyalists.

Given that the voters have placed their faith in the BJP and rejected the perceived “arrogance”, alleged corruption, and the alleged high-handedness of the TMC, many in the ruling party believe any association with breakaway groups of Trinamool leaders will be detrimental in the long run. The fear is that BJP rule may then come to be viewed as an extension of the previous regime and give rise to the perception that change has been cosmetic.

Before the revolt by the MPs, a group of 58 of the TMC’s 80 MLAs backed Ritabrata Banerjee, whom the organisational leadership had expelled, as the Leader of the Opposition (LoP) in the state Assembly. This was in direct opposition to the leadership’s choice of old-time Mamata confidant Sovandeb Chattopadhyay as the LoP. Ritabrata now claims to have the support of at least 64 MLAs and has said he is ready for a floor test next week.

“In this case, the state government has chosen the Opposition and it can decide where it should be kept. As long as they are a separate party and the BJP does not have to share power, it will be fine in the honeymoon period. But in the long run it’s damaging for the party,” said a senior BJP office-bearer.

BJP functionaries in the state have publicly expressed concerns about admitting TMC leaders into the party. “I shed no tears for the TMC’s self-destruction. My only hope is that the political culture of the vandals doesn’t start contaminating the W Bengal BJP. We in the BJP have to be always wary of false friends who are today cosying up to us because they need to wash away their past sins. The detox of Bengal cannot be left incomplete,” newly appointed Finance Minister Swapan Dasgupta posted on X on June 4, a day after Ritabrata’s revolt.

As the TMC MLAs first raised the banner of rebellion, BJP state president Samik Bhattacharya also emphasised that his party’s doors were closed to leaders and cadre of the Mamata-led party. “Trinamool-isation of the BJP will never happen. Our doors are closed to the TMC. We reached the number 208 without importing anyone. People voted against TMC leaders. Our strategy this time started from the grassroots. How can we include those who are tainted?” he said.

“It is an all-India problem for the BJP,” said the BJP functionary. “We wanted to have a Congress-mukt Bharat (Congress-free India), but now the BJP is becoming Congress or Opposition-yukt party (party that has inducted Congress or Opposition leaders).”

Such leaders are concerned that weakening Opposition parties by breaking them and inducting their leaders because of short-term electoral gains may create deep vulnerabilities in the long run and change the foundational culture of the BJP, a cadre-based party that emphasises discipline.

Question of Left’s revival

The second concern about the TMC’s collapse is that the vacuum may provide the right conditions for the Left’s revival. The BJP leadership is conscious of the support the Mamata Banerjee-led party still enjoys — its vote share was 40.8%, about 5 percentage points behind the ruling party — and if it fragments, a major chunk could move towards the CPI(M), giving it a fresh lease of life. In this election, the CPI(M) received a mere 4.45% of the votes.

At least three leaders, including an MP and an MLA from the state, said the TMC should not disappear as the BJP would find it easier to manage it than a strengthened Left. “It (TMC) is a party without an ideology. It is easier for the BJP to deal with such parties. But a vacuum in the Opposition space could revive the Left parties,” said one of the leaders. He also wondered how the Adhikari government would act against the “corrupt and criminals” from the TMC years if most of its leaders come over to the BJP’s side.

However, another leader ruled out the Left’s revival. “The Left becoming an alternative is not possible as it has no relevance in today’s politics.”

Even if that does not come to pass, a section of the BJP is maintaining a close watch on Mamata’s attempts to rally the INDIA alliance and use the Opposition bloc to get her party back on its feet. The coming together of the Mamata-led TMC, the Congress, and the Left could, in theory, pose a tough challenge to the BJP in the future. But it appears to be a long shot as of now given the deep divide that exists between the Opposition parties on the ground in Bengal. While the Congress’s national leaders have shown their support for both Mamata and Abhishek, Left leaders have adopted a wait-and-watch approach to the political drama unfolding in the state. “There are no plans as of now to go soft on the TMC,” said a Left leader.