Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep… the many layers of BJP strategy

While the vehemence came as a surprise given that the JD(S), an erstwhile ally, is still seen as a possible post-poll partner of the BJP – in December, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had paid an ailing Deve Gowda a visit in Delhi – party leaders said Shah had more than one goal in mind. The BJP leader’s statement followed the assertion that the party would contest the Karnataka polls on its own.

One, Shah’s statement was a signal to several BJP leaders of the Vokkaliga community, to which JD(S) supremo H D Deve Gowda belongs, about the party being aware of their tacit understanding with the JD(S) to win from their seats in the old Mysuru region.

Party leaders say a close reading of the politics in the region showed that in return for helping a few in the BJP win, the arrangement has meant that a majority of the old Mysuru seats went to other parties. The region sends 89 MLAs to the Assembly. At its peak in 2008, the BJP won only 28 from the 11 districts in the region — 17 of these from the Bengaluru area. In 2018, the BJP could win only 22 of the 89 old Mysuru seats.

Shah’s statement was a signal to leaders dependent on this mutual arrangement to start working on their own to win.

Second, Shah had an eye on the Muslim vote, with Congress leaders in Karnataka admitting as much. The Congress has always projected the JD(S) – particularly Kumaraswamy, who became the CM at the head of a coalition with the BJP — as the ‘B team’ of the BJP. This helps the Congress rally the minority votes behind it.

If the BJP succeeds in conveying that it has nothing to do with the JD(S), at least some section of the minorities who are supporters of it would go with the party – thus splitting the Muslim vote.

A senior Congress leader in Bengaluru argued that Shah’s attack also “betrays the BJP’s apprehension that the party would not get the required number of seats in the coming elections”, and that the attack on the JD(S) didn’t mean the two would not tie up again.

“Shah wants the JD(S) to win maximum seats,” the Congress leader said, adding that it would make the party a valuable ally in case elections threw up a hung Assembly.

Party leaders give the example of neighbouring Kerala to illustrate how the BJP is planning at multiple levels to expand in a state that has proved unbreachable for it so far. With a majority of the Hindu voters here traditional supporters of the CPI(M) and Congress – with the BJP seen as a “north-Indian, divisive” party, especially by the lower castes — the BJP has been trying to cultivate a base here among the Christians and Muslims, who comprise formidable numbers in the state.

BJP leaders as well as RSS volunteers have been utilising every opportunity to be seen on Christian and Muslim platforms, as well as reaching out to prominent personalities and organisations aligned with them. BJP in-charge of Kerala affairs Prakash Javadekar has been proactive in this.

Party leaders point to the support they offered to the Catholic Church in attempts to bring Pope Francis to visit India and the local units participating in community celebrations and programmes. As minorities are seen as warming up towards the BJP, it might also shed the party’s unacceptability among some Hindus, says a leader from Kerala.

Others give the example of Lakshadweep, an island with over 93% Muslim population, where BJP Rajya Sabha MP Radha Mohan Agarwal, the in-charge of the Union Territory, has taken up the issue of getting the islands air connectivity.

This has major appeal in Lakshadweep, with its population dependent on the mainland for almost everything, including medical assistance and education. Agarwal says he is making “genuine efforts” for the islands, calling Lakshadweep “a strategically important place” and adding, the people there are “nationalists”.