BJP shadow, Congress fate: Which way will the Muslim vote swing in Kerala?

A key factor influencing Muslim voters is the potential fate of the Congress in the event of a third consecutive defeat for the party. If the Opposition party loses, the fear in sections of the minority community is that it may disintegrate and lead to the emergence of a stronger BJP. This could play a major role in deciding which way the Muslim votes swing.

With Muslim votes at stake, the Congress and the CPI(M) have been accusing each other of having a tacit understanding with the BJP. A day after Congress leaders Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi levelled the allegations against the CPI(M), CM Pinarayi Vijayan hit back on Thursday by accusing Gandhi and his party of being the BJP’s “B-team”. Vijayan and state Congress leader V D Satheesan also engaged in a war of words on social media.

“Development alone will not be a deciding factor for the community,” said Sunni Mahallu Federation’s state organising secretary Nasar Faizy Koodathai. “Many fear that UDF will collapse if it fails to return to power after 10 years in the Opposition. Such a scenario will make the Congress susceptible to the BJP making inroads, apart from the collapse of the UDF alliance.” The federation is a platform of office-bearers of various mosque committees affiliated to the Samastha Kerala Jamiyyathul Ulama clerical body that is known for its pro-IUML stand.

So far, steadfastness in taking on the BJP has been an issue for Kerala Muslims in the Lok Sabha elections. In the parliamentary elections from 2014 to 2024, the community backed the Congress-led UDF, mainly in the north, where the alliance had swept all seats. At the same time, they put their weight behind CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) in the last two Assembly elections in the same region.

The BJP has managed to become a factor that could shape the minority community’s voting choice, as the NDA has succeeded in creating the impression that it is in a position to win multiple seats following its victory in the Thiruvananthapuram municipal corporation polls late last year.

CPM shift

After CPI(M) leaders from north Kerala such as Pinarayi Vijayan, former MLA E P Jayarajan, and the late Kodiyeri Balakrishnan (he was the party’s state secretary) rose to prominence after 2000, the party managed to establish clear links with the minority community and the wealthy Muslim expatriates. To take on the IUML, the CPI(M) even recruited businessmen and the wealthy from the community. On the ground, the party positioned itself as a champion of the community’s interests and a bulwark against the Sangh Parivar.

After the rout in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the CPI(M)’s bid to win back its core Hindu vote bank antagonised Muslims and created the impression that it was not as aggressive as before when taking on the BJP. When prominent Ezhava community leader Vellappally Natesan — the Ezhavas are OBCs — repeatedly made anti-Muslim remarks, the CPI(M) faced criticism for staying silent. Natesan, who advocated for a Hindu-Christian rainbow alliance, has alleged that the state will come under “IUML rule” if the UDF returns to power. Then, senior CPI(M) leader A K Balan claimed that if the UDF returned to power, the Jamaat-e-Islami would effectively run the home ministry. In 2015, Vijayan dubbed Natesan “Kerala Togadia” — a reference to Vishwa Hindu Parishad leader Praveen Togadia — over an alleged hate speech. But this time around, he did not condemn Natesan’s anti-minority comments and instead defended him, saying the Ezhava leader’s target was IUML and not Muslims.

The Jamaat-e-Islami that had supported CPI(M) for decades has, of late, leaned towards the UDF, saying that the Congress is the only option against the BJP at the national level. The friction between two Sunni factions, known as the EK and AP groups of Samastha, has also reduced. While the EK faction is close to the IUML, AP used to be known for its pro-CPI(M) stand.

However, not all in the community believe that the minority community’s votes will move en bloc to a particular community because of apprehensions about the BJP’s rise. While common Muslims have benefitted from the LDF government’s welfare schemes, in the recent local polls, the UDF received the support of the AP faction led by Kanthapuram Aboobacker Musaliyar.