BJP faces tough challenge to retain power in Tripura amid emerging electoral alliances

Tipra Motha has, however, reached out to Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT), which is currently part of the ruling combine, with a proposal for merger, and the latter has agreed for talks.

The state, which saw the BJP sweeping the elections with a single majority in 2018, decimating the Left Front, has seen quite a few changes on its political horizon since then. The BJP, despite rolling out several ambitious announcements and social benefits, has come to face some anti-incumbency, which the ruling party claims is normal but the Opposition attribute it to its “anti-people policies and political violence”.

Eight MLAs have quit the BJP-Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT) combine, including five from BJP and three from IPFT. Four of them, including three from the IPFT and one from the BJP, went to Tripura ADC’s ruling Tipra Motha party, three others went to the Congress and one switched to the Trinamool Congress.

Traditional arch-rivals in the state, CPIM and Congress, are already discussing seat-sharing, putting some pressure on the ruling BJP, which has termed it “unholy alliance” and “anti-development”.

Crucial among the recent political developments is the rise of Tipra Motha, a party led by royal scion Pradyot Kishore Manikya Debbarma, mainly thriving on its well-received demand among tribals for Greater Tipraland. The Tipraland slogan was first raised by former IPFT chief N C Debbarma in 2009 and catapulted the tribal party to power in 2018.

Given that Tripura’s 60-member Assembly has 20 seats reserved for tribals and tribals hold significant sway in many other open seats, Motha is considered a prospective partner for all players. Senior BJP leaders and even RSS supremo Mohan Bhagwat had called on Pradyot last year; while CPIM, which started its politics from anti-royal Jana Siksha Andolan in 1940s, too, reached out to Pradyot and publicly proposed an alliance.

For now, Tipra Motha maintains it will not ally with anyone without written assurance in support of its core Greater Tipraland agenda. The party, however, has sharpened its attack on the BJP, which it claims does communal politics and dictates Tripura from Delhi or Nagpur.

Both CPIM and Congress say their core agenda is to defeat the BJP, and “restore democracy and rule of law”. While the alliance talks between the parties are yet to be over, both parties have expressed satisfaction at the progress of discussions. On its side, the BJP maintains its core agenda is development. Though aware of the alliance against it, the saffron party says it’s 100 per cent sure of victory and said opposition parties have no agenda and are piling lies to divert people from ‘massive development’ achieved under BJP’s watch.

“We are 100 percent sure of victory… our core issue is development. Since Tripura merged with India in 1949, this is the first time that the state saw such massive development happened in five years. People are very happy. Development is our prime agenda. The opposition alliance is anti-development and we are not bothered,” a BJP spokesperson said.

His comments came hours after BJP’s ally IPFT responded to Tipra Motha’s proposal of uniting both parties for “survival and existence” of tribals and said it is ready for talks on a “broad range of issue of common interest”.

On prospects of losing its only partner in Tripura, the BJP maintained that it wasn’t fazed by the development, adding, “If there are conspiracies of this type, people would give befitting reply”.

In 2018, the BJP vote share was 43.59 per cent, marginally higher than CPIM’s 42.22 per cent. A large share of Congress votes, which bagged 40-45 per cent votes even when it was out of power in the state, shifted to the BJP and the grand old party’s vote share came down to 1.79 per cent.