Amid Datia blowback, a question: Why BJP blocked Narottam Mishra’s comeback

Violent Datia protests

The fallout of the BJP’s denial of ticket to Mishra has escalated well beyond the resignation letters that came from several party office-bearers and Mishra’s supporters at the district, mandal and booth levels in protest in the hours after the announcement.

A highway blockade in Datia by Mishra’s supporters and disgruntled BJP workers that began on Friday evening continued through the night, with the administration attempting to negotiate its withdrawal. However, it turned violent as the protesters, shouting slogans against the BJP for denying Mishra the ticket, clashed with police personnel. Eight policemen were injured in the clashes, and several police vehicles and trucks were damaged in the violence.

Mishra broke his silence Saturday, appealing to his supporters to stay calm. “This is a BJP decision. I would like to say this to the party workers — I have seen visuals on social media of workers pouring petrol and kerosene. Don’t engage in such acts. You can put your views before the party forum in an appropriate manner,” he said.

BJP calculations

BJP insiders and party leaders familiar with the candidate selection process point to a mix of calculations behind the choice, stretching beyond Datia’s local arithmetic. The Mishra camp has claimed that he was given a green signal from the state party leadership, including Chief Minister Mohan Yadav, that he was going to be the sole candidate, following which Mishra even went to purchase a nomination form for contesting the Datia bypoll.

However, multiple sources point out that feedback from the party central dispensation set off warning as “Mishra’s position in the constituency was weaker than the initial projection had assumed and there was anti-incumbency against him from the voters and local leaders”.

“Some doubts involved perceptions around Narottam Mishra’s son Sukarn and the political ecosystem built around their family. In the last election, his son proved to be unpopular among the local people due to various incidents of highhandedness, and the party opined that factor was still at large,” said a BJP leader.

Then there has been a power tussle within the state BJP. CM Yadav, who enjoyed the first two years in power managing to stamp his authority on the daily administration, has lately been grappling with pressure from various party leaders, sources said.

During the tenure of the previous CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Mishra had become one of the BJP’s most consequential political managers in the state — handling elections, holding negotiations, and dealing with various party crises.

“Narottam Mishra was the de facto number 2 during Shivraj Singh Chouhan tenure and even CM Chouhan could not get things done in the home department without Mishra’s approval and this made governance difficult,” said a senior BJP leader.

“A win in Datia for Mishra would very likely have meant a return to the Cabinet with a key portfolio, making him a new power centre at a moment when CM Mohan Yadav is still working to consolidate his own authority. With Kailash Vijayvargiya, Prahlad Patel, Narendra Singh Tomar, Chouhan himself and Jyotiraditya Scindia already occupying the senior tier of the state BJP leadership, adding Mishra back into that mix was not something the party dispensation appears to have wanted at this stage,” the senior BJP leader said.

There was also an appetite within sections of the party to move past Mishra altogether. His loss in the 2023 election had already dented an aura of invincibility that had held for nearly two decades, and some in the organisation argued Datia needed a contest built around something other than his personal return.

Ashutosh Tiwari — with an RSS background, years spent as the BJP’s divisional organisation secretary, and no real footprint in local factional politics — was seen to have fulfilled those requirements while keeping the seat’s Brahmin factor and caste arithmetic intact, BJP insiders said.

For the BJP, the larger challenge now lies beyond the Datia protests. Few leaders in MP possess Mishra’s organisational network in the Gwalior-Chambal region. Over six Assembly victories, he built a structure that stretches from district office-bearers to mandal presidents and booth-level workers. Much of that network remains personally loyal to him rather than to the official candidate. Translating that loyalty into votes for Tiwari will determine whether the party’s gamble succeeds.

The BJP is thus expected to move quickly to contain the damage. The party’s immediate priority is to “persuade Mishra to campaign prominently for Tiwari, signalling unity and reassuring workers that his political future remains secure”, sources said.

Party leaders are also expected to “reach out to disgruntled district functionaries to prevent organisational dissent from derailing the Tiwari’s campaign”, sources added.