After Bihar setback, will upper-caste discontent hurt BJP in Uttar Pradesh?

These developments have played out against the backdrop of the protest at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar, which had the support of the Left and the Ambedkarites. The BJP, however, believes that the agitation received the sort of firepower not seen in the last 12 years because the issue of exam reforms directly affects urban, upper-caste families, a traditional support base for the party. “It began with the Ambedkarites. Then the Left entered the protest. But it was the large participation and sympathy from the upper castes that made the movement difficult to handle,” said a BJP leader.

UP BJP leaders cautious

After Bankipur, the BJP identified distress among the upper castes over the UGC regulations as one of the key factors behind its loss. And now, it is wary of a similar repercussion in UP as well.

Rajput Karni Sena supporters stage a protest over the UGC equity regulations, in Jaipur on August 3. (Express file photo Rohit Jain Paras)

The regulations notified this January were meant to address discrimination, including caste-based prejudice, in higher education institutions. However, they triggered protests and calls for their withdrawal among sections of mostly upper-caste students. These groups claimed that the rules could create divisions over caste and result in “harassment” of students in the general category. The Supreme Court later stayed the regulations, observing that they raise important questions which, if left unexamined, could have “very sweeping consequences” and “divide society”.

Several UP BJP leaders from the Brahmin and Thakur communities said there was simmering anger over the regulations and they were still finding it hard to pacify their communities on the issue.

“They generally question the need for new UGC regulations. They argue that upper castes stood with the BJP in its time of struggle and during the Ram Janmabhoomi movement when OBCs and Dalits had not consolidated behind the party as Hindus. They fought for the BJP in booths. They question why the same BJP had taken a decision that has damaged them,” said a BJP leader in Sultanpur district from the Brahmin community.

Another Brahmin leader in adjoining Pratapgarh district said the party believes the community will vote for the party despite publicly expressing its anger. “A section of Brahmins is saying that they may vote for the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) if they decide to go against the BJP. They are unlikely to support the Samajwadi Party (SP) as they are not comfortable with their Yadav vote bank.”

An upper-caste leader in Ayodhya said BJP functionaries were uncomfortable about answering questions on issues such as UGC regulations and exam paper leaks. “It would have been better had Dharmendra Pradhan resigned as Education Minister over the UGC regulation issue, instead of resigning later under pressure of students protesting on paper leaks. His resignation on the UGC issue would have sent a favourable message among the upper castes. But then the BJP’s upper-caste leaders maintained silence,” said the functionary.

An upper-caste leader in Lakhimpur Kheri district said the anger was directed more at the Centre than the Yogi Adityanath-led state government because UGC was part of the Union government’s domain. “But just like Thakurs voted against the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and Brahmins in the recent Bankipur by-poll in Bihar, the upper castes are threatening to vote along SIMILAR LINES in 2027 UP polls, too. The central leadership must provide a remedy as it cannot afford to lose UP if it has to retain power in the Centre in 2029.”

A Thakur leader in Varanasi said UGC regulations and paper leaks were being discussed in every household as there is at least one student in each family and people are concerned about their children’s future. “During a public discussion, an upper-caste person argued that the Congress government was better in a sense because they avoided making any new law which divides society,” he said, adding that the situation heats up whenever BJP leaders try to defend the Centre on UGC regulations and paper leaks.

Leadership’s message

Last month, in a series of closed-door meetings, BJP president Nitin Nabin urged party colleagues not to panic, urging them not to view such matters through the prism of their own caste. “Nabin ji had assured that the intention behind the UGC regulations was not wrong and the government would course-correct,” said a leader who attended one such meeting.

At one meeting, BJP general secretary (organisation) B L Santhosh urged UP BJP leaders to deal with the UGC issue “carefully” and inform people about the steps the government had taken so far. “About the UGC regulations, he said some wrong use of words in the notification had led to a negative message,” a leader said.

In 2024, discontentment among Thakurs over the alleged lack of tickets to candidates from their community had dominated the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections. It was seen as one of the factors behind the BJP’s tally dropping to 33 from 62 in 2019. Among the seats the BJP lost due to anger among Thakurs were Muzaffarnagar, Saharanpur, and Kairana, while the party’s VICTORY margin declined in Meerut and Mathura. There was some impact in east UP too, sources said.

In Rajasthan, the upper-caste mobilisation against the BJP has occurred through the Rajput Karni Sena, which decided to protest against the UGC regulations in Jaipur. Like the upper castes in Bankipur, their dissatisfaction with the BJP stems from what they see as the party’s emphasis on the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Dalits, and other marginalised groups.

“We will now undertake a campaign in Haryana,” Rajput Karni Sena spokesperson Vijendra Singh told The Indian Express. “The upper castes have been the most committed vote base of the BJP, but the party has been focusing on expanding into other categories. So, the Centre is taking us for granted and tailoring its policies towards OBCs, SCs and STs.”

However, the general sense among Rajputs in Rajasthan is that as of now the simmering discontent remains contained among sections of the Karni Sena. The Rajput group’s campaign has not yet drawn the support of influential figures from the community.