In 3 Bihar districts with most SIR deletions, more voters struck off than winning margin in 2/3rd Assembly seats

In as many as 25 of the total 36 Assembly constituencies in these three districts, the number of voters deleted exceeds the winning margin of the elected candidate. The BJP-JD(U) alliance holds 18 of these 25 seats.

Voters aged under 40, who were required by the EC to furnish citizenship proof as part of the SIR (as they would not have been part of the 2003 electoral rolls, the last made after an intensive revision), accounted for 4.02 lakh or 37.87% of all deletions in these three districts.

More women voters were deleted than men in these three districts. At 5.67 lakh deletions, women accounted for 53.35% of all deletions in these three districts. Men, however, outnumber women electors in each of the 36 Assembly seats in these districts.

Breakdown of deletions in the top three districts

In its published deletion lists, the EC provided four reasons for deletions – ‘permanently shifted’, ‘deceased’, ‘absent’, and ‘already enrolled’. Across these three districts, ‘permanently shifted’ was the most cited reason at 3.9 lakh or 36.74% of all deletions, followed by ‘deceased’ at 3.42 lakh (32.23%), ‘absent’ at 2.25 lakh (21.2%), and ‘already enrolled’ at 1.04 lakh (9.82%).

While ‘permanently shifted’ refers to those voters who have migrated away from the state, ‘already enrolled’ refers to those who are registered to vote elsewhere within the state, and ‘absent’ are voters not available at the address where they were registered to vote, as per officials.

In all the three districts, the most cited reason for women was ‘permanently shifted’, while for men it was ‘deceased’. Though Bihar has among the highest populations of outbound migrants (second only to Uttar Pradesh), the Census 2011 showed that employment was the most commonly cited reason for migration and far more frequently cited by men than women, for whom marriage was the most common reason for migration.

Patna

At 3.95 lakh, Patna ranks highest among the 38 Bihar districts in voter deletions – comprising 6.1% of the total. Patna is also the state’s most populous district.

At 1.55 lakh or 39.21% of total, ‘permanently shifted’ was the most common reason for deletions in Patna, followed by ‘deceased’ at 1.34 lakh (34%), ‘absent’ at 73,225 (18.56%), and ‘already enrolled’ at 32,481 (8.23%).

The below-40 or youth age group – all of which is required to furnish one of 11 documents as part of the SIR, as they don’t feature in the 2003 electoral rolls – accounts for 1.26 lakh or 31.8% of the total deletions.

Of them, 67,011 have ‘permanently shifted’ and 30,551 were ‘absent’ during the enumeration period as per the EC data.

Among those over 40 years of age, 2.69 lakh have been “deleted” from the draft rolls, or 68.1% of the total.

Among them, the most cited reason was ‘deceased’, at 1.23 lakh, followed by ‘permanently shifted’ at 87,672.

Breakdown of deletions in Patna

Those aged 30 to 39 saw the most deletions at 79,850 (or 20.24% of all deletions), followed by those aged 40 to 49 at 78,712 (19.95%), and those aged 50 to 59 at 59,271 (15.02%).

Among all age groups, the 30 to 39 group saw the most deletions for ‘absent’, ‘permanently shifted’ and ‘already enrolled’. The 70 to 79 age group saw the most deletions for ‘deceased’.

Among the 14 Assembly seats that fall under the Patna district, eight saw the most deletions in the 40 to 49 age group, five in the 30 to 39 group, and one in the 70 to 79 group.

A breakdown of deletions by gender shows that more women voters were removed than men, at 2 lakh against 1.95 lakh. While women aged 30 to 39 saw the most deletions, at 42,662, the age group for men with the highest deletions was 40 to 49 at 39,172.

While the most common reason for women being deleted was ‘permanently shifted’ at 87,373 (or 43.8% of all deletions for women), for men the most common reason was ‘deceased’ at 72,156 (or 37% of all men).

In eight of Patna district’s 14 Assembly seats, more women were removed from the electoral rolls than men. But in three seats, around 55% of the deletions were women – no constituency saw as high a proportion of deletions for men. Among these 14 seats, Digha (the most populous constituency in Bihar, currently held by the BJP) saw the most deletions for both men and women, as well as overall.

It’s worth noting that none of these 14 Assembly seats had more women than men electors as per the electoral rolls of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

An Assembly seat-wise breakdown for the deletions shows that Digha topped the constituencies in Patna district on deletions citing ‘absent’ and ‘permanently shifted’ as the reason. Though ‘absent’ was only the third most common reason across Patna district, the reason was cited for 24,736 deletions in Digha – nearly five times the average across all 14 constituencies.

In the Bankipur seat (held by the BJP) too, the number of deletions for ‘absent’, at 18,808, was nearly four times the average of all the Patna district seats. While the Phulwari seat (held by the CPI-ML-L) recorded the most deletions for ‘deceased’ voters, Masaurhi (held by the RJD) saw the most deletions for voters who are ‘already enrolled’.

An analysis of deletions against election results and winning margins in the 14 Patna district Assembly seats shows that recent contests between the ruling NDA and Opposition Mahagathbandhan here have been close, though the Opposition has the edge.

In the 2020 Assembly elections, the BJP had won five seats in Patna district, but the Mahagathbandhan had come out ahead in nine seats – six won by the RJD, two by the CPI(ML)(L), and one by the Congress. In seven of these seats, the number of deletions has exceeded the winning margins from the 2020 polls. Of these seven seats, four were won by the BJP, two by the RJD, and one by the CPI(ML)(L).

In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the Assembly segment-level results show that the NDA led in six seats – five by the BJP and one by the JD(U) – while the Mahagathbandhan led in eight seats – six by the RJD and two by the Congress. In 10 of these seats, the number of deletions exceeds the winning margin in 2024. Of these 10 seats, five were won by the RJD, two each by the Congress and BJP, and one by the JD(U).

Among the prominent seats in the Patna district are Bankipur, held by the BJP’s four-time MLA and state minister Nitin Nabin Sinha, and Patna Sahib, held by another four-time BJP MLA in Nand Kishore Yadav, who is currently the Speaker of the state Assembly.

Madhubani

Madhubani, Bihar’s fourth-most populous district, has seen the second-highest voter deletions during the SIR, at 3.52 lakh, accounting for 5.42% of all deletions across the state.

Like in Patna, ‘permanently shifted’ was the most cited reason for deletions in Madhubani too, at 1.18 lakh or 33.52% of all deletions, followed by ‘deceased’ at 1.01 lakh (or 28.67%), ‘absent’ at 99,082 (or 28.15%), and ‘already enrolled’ at 33,993 (or 9.66%).

In Madhubani, voters aged under 40 accounted for 1.44 lakh or 40.87% of all deletions. For these voters, ‘permanently shifted’ or ‘absent’ were the most frequently cited reasons, at 61,427 and 50,149, respectively.

Among the deletions for voters aged 40 and above – which altogether number 2.08 lakh or 59.09% of the total – ‘deceased’ and ‘permanently shifted’ were the most cited reasons at 90,529 and 56,551, respectively.

Breakdown of deletions in Madhubani

The 30 to 39 age group saw the most deletions in Madhubani too – at 77,919 or 22.14% of all deletions – followed by the 20 to 29 age group at 62,771 (17.83%), and the 40 to 49 age group at 59,281 (16.84%).

Among all the age groups in Madhubani too, the 30 to 39 group saw the most deletions for ‘absent’, ‘permanently shifted’ and ‘already enrolled’, while the 70 to 79 age group saw the most deletions for ‘deceased’.

In each of the 10 Assembly seats that fall within the Madhubani district, the 30 to 39 age group saw the most deletions.

Analysing the deletions by gender shows that women by far outnumbered men – at 1.92 lakh against 1.6 lakh. But for both men and women, the 30 to 39 age group saw the most deletions at 43,637 and 34,279, respectively.

In Madhubani too, the most commonly cited reason for deleting women voters was ‘permanently shifted’ at 69,721 (or 36.29% of all deletions for women). For men, the most common reason was ‘deceased’ for 48,525 (or 30.36% of men).

In all 10 of Madhubani district’s Assembly seats, deletions for women outnumbered those for men. The Bisfi seat, held by the BJP, saw women account for as high as 56.5% of deletions – the highest among all 10 seats in Madhubani. Here too, all 10 Assembly seats had more men than women electors as per the electoral rolls of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

An Assembly seat-level breakdown shows that though the Madhubani seat (held by the RJD) is the most populous constituency in the district, it is the third-largest seat, Rajnagar (held by the BJP), that saw the most deletions at 46,590 or 13.24% of the entire district. While Phulparas (held by the JD-U) saw the most deletions for ‘permanently shifted’ voters and Rajnagar for ‘absent’, the Babubarhi seat (held by the JD-U) saw the most deletions for ‘already enrolled’ and ‘deceased’ at 4,476 and 11,907, respectively.

The number of deletions citing ‘absent’ as a reason was something of an outlier, at almost double the average deletions for this reason across all 10 seats.

The results of recent elections show that the ruling NDA has dominated in Madhubani district’s 10 Assembly segments.

In the 2020 Assembly elections, the NDA won eight seats in Madhubani – five by the BJP and three by the JD(U). The RJD won the remaining two seats. But in eight seats, the number of voter deletions exceeded the winning margin; while the BJP and JD(U) won three such seats each, the RJD won two.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the NDA swept the district, leading in every Assembly segment in Madhubani district. The JD(U) led in six segments and the BJP in the remaining four. In six of these Assembly segments, the voter deletions exceeded the winning margin.

Among the prominent seats in the district are Jhanjharpur, held by three-time BJP MLA and sitting Cabinet minister Nitish Mishra whose father Jagannath Mishra was a three-time Chief Minister; and Phulparas, held by state transport minister Sheela Kumari of the JD(U).

East Champaran

In East Champaran, Bihar’s second-most populous district after Patna, a total of 3.16 lakh voters have been deleted during the SIR, putting it at third highest across the state. The district’s deletions accounted for 4.86% of the state total of 65 lakh.

At 1.18 lakh or 37.25% of all deletions, ‘permanently shifted’ was the most cited reason in East Champaran, followed by ‘deceased’ at 1.07 lakh (33.98%), ‘absent’ at 52,934 (16.75%), and ‘already enrolled’ at 37,952 (12.01%).

Among the three districts analysed, East Champaran saw most deletions among voters aged under 40 at 1.33 lakh or 42.11% of all deletions. In this age group, ‘permanently transferred’ and ‘absent’ were the most common reasons, at 64,263 and 30,010 deletion, respectively.

For the 1.83 lakh voters aged 40 and older who were deleted, ‘deceased’ was the most commonly cited reason at 94,877, followed by ‘permanently shifted’ at 53,441.

Breakdown of deletions in East Champaran

In East Champaran too, the 30 to 39 age group saw the most deletions at 75,813 (or 24% of all deletions), followed by the 40 to 49 age group at 58,039 (18.37%), and the 20 to 29 age group at 53,590 (16.96%).

For all reasons except ‘deceased’, the 30 to 39 age group saw the most deletions. The 70 to 79 age group recorded the most deletions for ‘deceased’ voters.

In each of the 12 Assembly seats that fall within East Champaran district, the 30 to 39 age group saw the most deletions.

A gender-wise breakdown of the deletions shows that more women than men were deleted through the SIR in East Champaran too. At 1.75 lakh, deletions for women exceeded those for men at 1.41 lakh. For both men and women, the 30 to 39 age group saw the most deletions at 33,253 and 42,555, respectively.

In East Champaran too, the most cited reason for deleting women voters was ‘permanently shifted’ at 69,719 (or 39.85% of all deletions for women). For men, the most common reason was ‘deceased’ at 50,653 (or 35.93% of men).

In all of East Champaran’s 12 Assembly seats, women outnumbered men in terms of deletions. In the Harsidhi (held by the BJP) seat, women accounted for 60.42% of all deletions, the highest among all the seats in East Champaran. Govindganj (held by the BJP) and Sugauli (held by the RJD) recorded the next highest shares of women at 58.63% and 57.21%, respectively. But in East Champaran, men electors outnumbered women in every Assembly segment, as of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Among these Assembly seats, Motihari (held by the BJP) saw the most deletions at 53,659 (or 16.98% of the entire district), far ahead of the seat with the next highest deletions – Pipra and Chiraiya (both held by the BJP) at 35,026 and 28,599, respectively. While Pipra is East Champaran’s most populous constituency, Motihari ranks third and Chiraiya sixth.

Motihari also recorded the most deletions for ‘permanently shifted’, ‘deceased’, and ‘absent’ as the reason at 26,791, 12,894 and 11,298, respectively. At 4,611, Chiraiya saw the most deletions for ‘already enrolled’. Likely owing to its size compared to the other seats in East Champaran, Motihari saw far more deletions for ‘absent’ and ‘permanently shifted’ voters – nearly three times the average of all seats for these reasons.

Recent election results show that the BJP has been the dominant party in East Champaran, with Opposition parties struggling to make a dent here.

In the 2020 Assembly polls, the NDA won nine of the district’s 12 seats – eight by the BJP and one by the JD(U). The RJD won the remaining three seats. But in 10 seats, the number of SIR deletions exceeded the winning margin – seven of these seats were won by the BJP, two by the RJD and one by the JD(U).

In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP again led in eight Assembly segments, followed by the JD(U) in two, and the RJD and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP). But in eight segments, the number of voter deletions exceeded the winning margin – four of these seats were won by the BJP, two by the JD(U), and one each by the RJD and VIP.

Among the prominent seats in East Champaran is Harsidhi, held by three-time BJP MLA Krishnanandan Paswan who is also the state sugarcane minister. In Motihari, four-time BJP MLA Pramod Kumar, a former state Cabinet minister, is the sitting legislator.