Between Brahmins and OBCs, why BJP’s social coalition in UP is under stress

The UGC’s equity regulations, aimed at curbing caste-based discrimination in higher education institutions, have been widely criticised by upper-caste groups. Some state BJP leaders have also publicly come out in opposition, alleging that the regulations could be potentially misused to discriminate against the upper castes. The regulations —  which are on hold following the Supreme Court’s intervention — have, apart from bringing to the fore the unease among Brahmins in the party about the BJP’s OBC push, also complicated the Brahmin-Thakur dynamics that had worsened ahead of the last Lok Sabha polls. This, in short, threatens the party’s broader strategy of Hindu consolidation.

What has added a sense of urgency to the situation for the BJP is Opposition leader Akhilesh Yadav and the Samajwadi Party’s (SP) continued attempts to gain traction among the OBCs beyond their Yadav base and pivot away from a Muslim-Yadav party by stitching up a coalition of PDA (Pichhda or OBCs, Dalit, and Alpasankhyak, or minorities). The strategy bore fruit in the 2024 parliamentary polls as the party ended with 37 seats, while the BJP finished with 33. On March 29, Akhilesh is supposed to address a Samajwadi Samanta Bhaichara rally in Dadri — from where he had launched his 2012 election campaign and came to power by winning 224 of 403 seats — in an attempt to wean away Gujjars, Kurmis, Sainis and Kushwahas in the western, central, and eastern districts of UP.

The SP chief has accused the BJP government of taking away 27% reservation quota for OBCs in the public sector and claimed that thousands of seats meant for the PDA communities were lying vacant. With the UGC regulation row, the SP could find a way to make the accusations stick, some BJP leaders fear.

“There’s already an erosion in the Kurmi and Kushwaha votes for the party in central and eastern districts. Now Akhilesh is targeting Gujjars too. A section of Jat votes and Gujjar votes can help him win more seats in western UP too,” said a Rajya Sabha MP from the state.

The BJP is believed to have appointed Pankaj Chaudhary, who is from the OBC community, its state president precisely to counter Akhilesh and the PDA pitch.

Brahmin unease

At such a time, with the SP attempting to expand its tent, the UGC (Promotion of Equity in Higher Education Institutions) Regulations, 2026, was seen as the BJP’s attempt to solidify its hold on the backward castes. But, along with it came a backlash from the party’s traditional upper-caste base.

Almost every party MP from the forward castes said it had “dented” their “community’s confidence” in the BJP government and the party’s office-bearers in several districts resigned their posts, terming the rules a “black law”.

The BJP’s Brahmin leaders were already upset with the leadership for reprimanding them over a meeting exclusively of MLAs from the community. These Brahmin leaders said there had been several such meetings of Thakur and OBC legislators, but they had not been pulled up. The grudge over the UGC rules was so intense that a Brahmin BJP leader likened it to the “Shah Bano moment of the Congress”, referring to the Rajiv Gandhi-led Congress government’s move to dilute the Supreme Court’s 1985 judgment granting a Muslim woman the right to claim maintenance. It is often cited as an example of the Congress’s alleged minority appeasement, something that, with hindsight, altered the political landscape as it was followed by the unlocking of the gates of the Babri Masjid in 1986.

“There is already a lot of resentment among the upper castes about the BJP playing the OBC card. They feel backward communities are taking away jobs, enjoying a larger share of power in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Earlier, there were rules to protect SCs and STs that were misused against the upper castes, and now the OBCs are also included. Their concerns are genuine,” said a Brahmin leader of the BJP.

“The BJP came to power on the Hindutva agenda. It was supposed to unite the Hindus, but they remain divided. PM Modi, apart from his development plank, kept talking about moving beyond the traditional caste-based divisions to foster a broader Hindu consciousness. But the division in the community is getting wider every day,” said an MP.

Though Brahmins are not a decisive force electorally, they are seen as a small yet influential section with significant representation in politics, bureaucracy, academia, and other sections of society. However, “the community does not have any options”, said a leader. “The Congress, its trusted party earlier, now talks about quota for backwards even in private jobs. Unless the SP makes significant moves to reach out to them, the community will have to stick to the BJP. But it can influence the narrative and skip voting on polling day.”

This disenchantment in its ranks comes at a time when the BJP, despite being secure in national politics, has seen its UP poll tallies shrink. While the BJP’s Lok Sabha tally has declined from 71 in 2014 to 62 five years later, and 33 in 2024, it won 312 of the 403 seats in the 2017 Assembly elections and 255 constituencies five years later. Numbers also show that the BJP’s support among non-Yadav, non-Kurmi OBCs, as well as among non-Jatav Dalits, declined between the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The party’s average margin victory has also taken a hit.

Following the poor showing in 2024, the party’s review blamed internal friction, with Brahmins said to be unhappy with the Yogi Adityanath government. In the run-up to the parliamentary polls, there had been reports of unhappiness among the Thakur community, to which the CM belongs, about the choice of candidates in several constituencies, especially in western UP.