How Opposition hopes to regain plot as BJP looks to clear road to 2029: Bengal to Tamil Nadu, Kerala

The ruling BJP got a boost at the start of the new year with its capture of the cash-rich Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) with the help of its ally Eknath Shinde. The party also swept the civic bodies across Maharashtra, retaining power in Pune known as the Pawar family’s fiefdom.

The BJP then followed up on its winning streak by announcing its new national president Nitin Nabin. The 45-year-old five-time Bihar MLA Nabin’s election as the BJP’s youngest-ever president marks a watershed moment in the party’s history. His choice also represents a new style of the party’s functioning, with “primacy” being given to the organisation — which makes the RSS happy — but under the leadership of the BJP’s Top Two.

The BJP went to town to emphasise Nabin’s credentials and the entire party structure was mobilised — Prime Minister, Union Ministers, BJP CMs, state party chiefs — to launch Nabin’s presidency with fanfare. I could not help thinking if only the Congress had done something similar when it elected Mallikarjun Kharge as the party chief in October 2022 in order to send out a powerful message to the Dalit community, among other things.

South focus

PM Modi then lost no time in shifting his focus to the southern states — Kerala and Tamil Nadu where the polls are due in April — with the party now going all out to expand its footprint in the South. The BJP is not a major player in either of these two states, but it has made inroads in Kerala in the recent urban and rural body polls, pulling off a stunning win in the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation.

The outcome in the Kerala local body polls showed that while the Congress won it across the state by securing over 29% votes as against the CPI(M)’s 27%, the BJP also managed to garner 14.7% votes.

Not wanting to lose this momentum, Modi held an impressive roadshow last Friday in Thiruvananthapuram, the Lok Sabha constituency of Congress leader Shashi Tharoor. He likened the BJP’s Thiruvananthapuram victory to its win in the Ahmedabad civic body in 1987 in which he had played a key role, which then paved the way for the BJP’s rise and rise in Gujarat.

On the eve of the Republic Day, the Modi government conferred Padma Vibhushan on former Kerala CM and CPI(M) stalwart V S Achuthanandan posthumously, which has sent its own message and has become a subject of avid discussion in the state.

From Kerala, Modi went to Tamil Nadu where, in a two-pronged strategy, he sharpened his attack against the DMK, accusing it of corruption, mafia, crime and dynasty, and unveiled a larger NDA alliance. While Modi had also campaigned aggressively in Tamil Nadu in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP then could not do as well as it had hoped.

Besides the AIADMK led by Edapaddi Palaniswami or EPS, the PMK faction led by Anbumani Ramadoss and some smaller outfits, the BJP has now managed to bring into the NDA fold T T V Dhinakaran, the AMMK chief, who had been expelled from the AIADMK in 2017. He is now expected to reinforce the NDA’s hold among the Thevar community to which he belongs.

Former Tamil Nadu BJP chief K Annamalai had made the BJP a talking point in the state, but had to step down last year to make way for Nainar Nagenthran and facilitate the party’s tie-up with the AIADMK whose leadership he had annoyed.

He seems to be back in the BJP’s scheme of things now. What is however not settled between the BJP and the AIADMK is the question of power sharing in the event of the NDA’s win in the polls. Neither of the two major Dravidian parties favours sharing power with their allies in their governments, which has been a convention in state politics.

Some observers believe that the best-case scenario for the BJP in Tamil Nadu would be for the elections to throw up a hung Assembly, when it may be able to manoeuvre the situation to its advantage. This may happen if the Congress breaks away from the DMK and aligns with actor-turned-politician Vijay whose TVK has emerged as the third pole in the state’s electoral landscape.

The Congress is not likely to snap its ties with the DMK, although the party leaders have been divided over whether or not to ally with Vijay. The party might be using Vijay as a ploy to bargain harder with the DMK to get more seats and even an assurance about joining its government if the alliance returns to power.

Congress and Tharoor

What is, however, clear is that the Congress leadership has struggled to deal with the Tharoor factor in Kerala. Their row again made headlines last week, much to the Congress’s discomfort.

The party had decided that despite its unhappiness with Tharoor over his stand on Operation Sindoor, it was not going to expel him. Given his standing in the state and at the national level, any unseemly controversy could hurt the Congress’s chances in Kerala, which now appear to be bright. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the party-led UDF had won 18 of 20 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

Just when Tharoor seemed to be moving in step with the Congress – he attended the two-day brainstorming party meet in Wayanad earlier this month – came what was seen as a “snub” by Rahul Gandhi to the four-time Thiruvananthapuram MP at a Kochi event last week.

The Congress high command may have calculated that the BJP’s win in Thiruvananthapuram would weaken Tharoor’s position and compel him to bury the hatchet. Instead, Tharoor skipped a crucial meeting in Delhi last Friday that Kharge and Rahul held with state party leaders to firm up their poll plans. Any rifts within the party at this stage would only dent its electoral prospects and help the LDF and BJP.

The BJP’s Kerala strategy would be to expand its influence – and somehow prevent the Congress from coming to power, even if it means the continuation of the Left government it is ideologically opposed to.

The BJP is aware of the psychological advantage the wins in the upcoming elections could give to the Opposition camp – and the party will pull out all stops to prevent it. The BJP knows it has to face big tests in 2027 – when Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Punjab are slated for polls – which could determine its trajectory for the grand battle in 2029.

(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of ‘How Prime Ministers Decide’.)