Bengal results today: 5 key factors that could decide Mamata vs BJP contest

Here are five crucial factors to watch out for in the electoral landscape of Bengal.

SIR shadow

The two-phased polls in Bengal saw the highest-ever turnout, at about 92.5%, Most of the exit polls predicted a close contest, with several of them giving an edge to the BJP.

This time, the elections to the 294-member state Assembly took place under unprecedented circumstances. The polls were held against the backdrop of the Election Commission (EC)’s controversial Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, which was carried out over several months in an exercise that involved deletion of around 91 lakh voters – including over 27 lakh voters following adjudication, whose appeals 19 tribunals would continue to hear for an indefinite period.

While the EC carried out the SIR since last November in eight other states and three Union Territories, the exercise in Bengal has been unique on various counts, ranging from deployment of micro observers to the use of “logical discrepancies” criterion, to adjudication and tribunals.

Mamata has been up in arms against the SIR from the beginning, accusing the EC of doing a hatchet job on behalf of the BJP. She has termed the record turnout a “mass protest” against the SIR and voter deletions, claiming that it would benefit her party.

On the other hand, the BJP has hailed the SIR for deleting alleged undocumented Bangladeshi immigrants from the voter lists. The party has also framed the highest-ever voting as a mandate against the TMC regime due to “huge anti-incumbency”.

TMC’s acid test

In a video message a day after voting, Mamata claimed that her party would cross the 200-seat mark and may even hit 230, even as the magic figure or a simple majority is 148.

TMC insiders say the party is aiming to secure an “absolute majority close to 200” to protect itself from the BJP’s alleged bids to orchestrate defections through “Operation Lotus” subsequently.

In the 2021 Assembly polls, the TMC bagged 215 seats with a vote share of around 48% as against the BJP’s 77 seats with over 38% votes.

It will be critical for the TMC to hold on to its seats in the South Bengal bastion, including its core 111 seats in the Presidency division. The party also needs to keep its Muslim vote base intact across the state.

Mamata’s make-or-break fight

The face-off is being seen as the “battle of Mamata’s life”, who has been known for her combative politics and fighting spirit. If she manages to pull off her fourth Assembly poll triumph, it will further enhance her stature among top Opposition leaders at the national level.

This time, in her Bhabanipur constituency in South Kolkata, too, Mamata is facing a stiff challenge from her aide-turned-BJP face and Leader of Opposition (LoP) Suvendu Adhikari. The constituency saw high drama even on polling day on April 29, with the CM accusing the central security personnel and the EC of “harassment” and “detention” of her party leaders and workers a day earlier.

Mamata has been winning the Bhabanipur seat since 2011. Suvendu is also contesting from his home turf Nandigram in Purba Medinipur, where he had defeated the CM by about 1,900 votes in the 2021 polls.

After her defeat in Nandigram, Mamata won from the Bhabanipur seat in a bypoll by 58,835 votes in the same year. However, the BJP was said to have been encouraged after seeing the 2024 Lok Sabha election results, when the TMC’s lead in the Bhabanipur segment dipped to 8,297 votes.

BJP’s challenge

In 2021, when the BJP bagged 77 seats – its best-ever performance in the state – it emerged as the principal Opposition, elbowing out both the CPI(M) and the Congress.

This time, the BJP has gone all out in a bid to not only cross the 100 mark but also secure the magic number. BJP insiders say that a 150-seat haul would consolidate the party’s position, claiming that the TMC would “crumble” afterwards.

It is to be seen whether the BJP holds on to its North Bengal stronghold and makes foray into the South Bengal belts where the TMC has retained its dominance.

The BJP’s campaign was spearheaded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, even as the party’s top national leaders and CMs from several states undertook extensive canvassing across Bengal.

Congress, Left eye inroads

Both the Congress and the CPI(M)-led Left had failed to open their accounts in 2021, when they had contested together as part of an alliance.

This time, the Congress has gone solo. The party hopes to get some seats in Malda, Murshidabad and Uttar Dinajpur – three Muslim-dominated border districts. With Rahul Gandhi holding multiple public meetings in the state, the party seeks to become an alternative force for the Muslim community, which has staunchly backed the TMC so far.

The CPI (M) has also made all attempts to regain some ground in the state where it had ruled for 34 years before being ousted by Mamata in 2011. The party-led Left is again contesting the polls in alliance with the Indian Secular Front (ISF).

Trying to effect a generational shift, the CPI(M) has fielded its several prominent youth leaders across the state. They include Minakshi Mukherjee, Kalatan Dasgupta, Dipsita Dhar, Mayukh Biswas, and Afreen Begum.

Smaller players

In the outgoing Assembly, the lone non-BJP Opposition MLA was Naushad Siddiqui, the ISF chief, who won from the Bhangar seat in South 24 Parganas district. In this election, the ISF is also trying to establish its base in other Muslim-dominated seats besides Bhangar.

Suspended TMC MLA Humayun Kabir had come to limelight by laying foundation stone for a Babri Masjid replica in Murshidabad on December 6 last year, going on to float his own party, Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP), which has put up its candidates in multiple seats. The Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM is also contesting from several seats in Bengal.

If these smaller parties cut into Muslim votes, it may dent the TMC’s prospects in seats involving close contests.