The gloves are finally off for 2024. Now, till the voter chooses the next national government —either in the middle of 2024 as slated, or earlier, a possibility that cannot be ruled out — every political move is going to be more election-oriented than it has been so far.
The Opposition is pressing ahead with its unity moves. The Mumbai conclave of the INDIA alliance decided to go for seat-sharing in states expeditiously, and sharpened its attack on Gautam Adani and Prime Minister Narendra Modi following the surfacing of another report against the Adani group.
Coincidently or consequently, the ruling BJP struck back on the opening day of the INDIA’s Mumbai meeting. It suddenly called for a special session of Parliament (September 18-22), surprising many. The agenda for the special session — which may well become effectively the last session of this government — is not clear. The Opposition parties, as their leaders were quick to point out, were neither consulted nor was the Business Advisory Committee called, triggering criticism that Parliament is also becoming an electoral ping pong.
Will the government pitch for “one nation, one election” during the special session? It has made it intention clear by setting up a committee headed by former President Ram Nath Kovind to go into its feasibility. Just as Modi’s terms so far see the fulfilment of the BJP’s — and the RSS’s — core agenda (Ram Temple, Article 370, triple talaq), the BJP obviously plans to move towards systemic changes in its third term and is using the “one nation, one election” as a trial balloon.
Is the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) likely to be enacted during the special session? As things stand, the government is more likely to kick the UCC can down the road, given the problems it will run into with the tribals — and the UCC cannot be Muslim-specific. The tribals are a group the BJP has for long courted and it would not want to risk alienating them ahead of a high-stakes battle. As it is, some in the RSS say enigmatically, “We will have to work hard this time (2024)”.
There is also the reported possibility of the government bringing in the long-pending Women’s Reservation Bill during the session, but it carries with it the risk of being opposed by various OBC groups, as in the past. The government could always increase the number of seats in Parliament — for which there is now a provision in its new building — to accommodate more women in the Lok Sabha.
Or, does the government plan to hold the five day-session as a feel-good Amritkaal session in a new, post-colonial Parliament, building on the successes of the Chandrayaan-3 and the G 20 meet being hosted by Narendra Modi, with the PM headed for the UN soon afterwards for the next round of global engagement.
The BJP may use the special session to showcase its 2024 poll agenda, which it would implement in its third term if voted back to power.
The INDIA bloc’s Mumbai conclave resolved “as far as possible” to contest the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections “together” and to undertake seat-sharing arrangements in different states “immediately”. (Express Photo by Amit Chakravarty)
The Opposition leaders are however convinced that the session is only a “ploy” to deflect attention from the Adani affair and the INDIA bloc’s moves towards unity.
The drought in several parts of the country must also worry the ruling side, which is being followed by growing economic hardships. This has made the government reduce the price of gas cylinders by Rs 200, even as the PM had attacked the “revdi” culture. A “deep throat” in Delhi says that it might raise the amount given to farmers from Rs 6,000 per year to Rs 9,000. If there is anything giving an advantage to the Opposition, it is price rise and loss of livelihoods causing pain to people.
Driving to the Grand Hyatt in Mumbai where the “Judega Bharat, Jeetega India” meeting of the INDIA alliance was held, there were many Opposition leaders smiling from the posters and hoardings on both sides of the road — including host Uddhav Thackeray and Aaditya Thackeray, Sharad Pawar and daughter Supriya Sule, Nitish Kumar, Lalu Yadav and Tejashwi Yadav, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, M K Stalin, Mallikarjun Kharge, Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah, Mehbooba Mufti, Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, Akhilesh Yadav and Jayant Chaudhary — with photographs of even the leaders’ associates and aides! It was in sharp contrast to that of a BJP scene, which has Modi’s pictures dominating any event.
The INDIA bloc’s August 31-September 1 conclave resolved “as far as possible” to contest the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections “together” — it has zeroed in on 400 Lok Sabha seats where one-on-one contests are possible — and to undertake seat-sharing arrangements in different states “immediately”. Announcing a 14 member coordination committee, and four other sub- groups and state level committees, it moved from the intent stage to the “execution” stage.
The Opposition alliance may not have been able to decide on its convener yet or its logo — both tricky propositions. Who will use the logo in West Bengal? Mamata Banerjee’s TMC or the Congress and the Left parties? Or in Kerala? The biggest setback at the Mumbai event, however, was an agreement being turned into a disagreement: the issue of holding a caste census. This was part of the bloc’s July resolution, and it resonates with its constituent parties such as the RJD, JD(U), Samajwadi Party, which have an OBC dominant base. While these parties want a caste census agreement, Mamata torpedoed the idea. The OBCs are convinced that their population figure is bigger than the percentage logged in the 1931 Census — 52 % — and that they deserve a larger share of the pie.
There are three things going for Modi in 2024, say BJP insiders. The first is India’s recognition at the world fora, which was not a factor in 2019: Ordinary people talk about India having arrived on the world stage and now having successfully landed on the Moon. The second is political stability that the BJP promises, and the third is a clear leader in Modi who works hard and has no family in tow. These are advantages the Opposition side does not have. It is banking on the power of arithmetic rather than on the chemistry around a leader.
In 1967, 1977 and 1989, when the Opposition had come together, at that time to defeat a dominant Congress, they had a greater hunger for power, many of them not having tasted it. And they had a “moral force” to compel them to sink their differences. In 1967, it was the rise of the peasants, castes and the presence of Ram Manohar Lohia and a mass leader in Charan Singh; in 1977 the presence of Jayaprakash Narayan helped; in 1989 VP Singh made a difference. Today, power in Delhi is an “add on” for a Mamata firmly ensconced in the Kolkata gaddi. What brings the Opposition leaders together is a fear that Modi in power again may spell a finis to their politics.
The irrepressible Lalu said at the conclave that “they” were willing to even accept a “nuksan” (to their political interest) so as to defeat Modi.
Tailpiece. The “press conference” that Lalu Yadav and many of the leaders spoke at, attended by a large group of media persons who had been waiting outside the Grand Hyatt over two days, was only a one-way conference. The Opposition leaders — who make a pitch for restoring media freedoms, so essential in a democracy — refused to field any questions. After having their say, they just walked out, cordoned off from the media by policemen.
(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 10 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of the recently published How Prime Ministers Decide)
The Mumbai conclave of the INDIA alliance decided to go for seat-sharing in states expeditiously, and sharpened its attack on Gautam Adani and Prime Minister Narendra Modi following the surfacing of another report against the Adani group. (Express Photo by Amit Chakravarty) 
The INDIA bloc’s Mumbai conclave resolved “as far as possible” to contest the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections “together” and to undertake seat-sharing arrangements in different states “immediately”. (Express Photo by Amit Chakravarty)
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