Election Results 2026 Analysis Live Updates: Tamil Nadu’s TVK surprise, Bengal’s saffron surge — how today’s verdicts expose cracks in regional strongholds

It is a political plight generations of comrades have not seen or experienced. With the CPI(M)-led Left government suffering a defeat in Kerala, India will not have a Communist chief minister for the first time in five decades.

The Left bloc was in power in West Bengal from 1977 to 2011. It ruled Tripura from 1993 to 2018. And in Kerala, it returned to power every five years and convincingly broke the trend in 2021. While Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress ended the 34-year Guinness record-worthy Left Front rule in West Bengal in 2011, the 25-year-old Left Front rule in Tripura came to an end with the BJP surprisingly decimating it in 2018. The BJP repeated the feat in 2023.

If actor-turned-politician Vijay’s TVK, which has emerged as the single largest party in early trends in Tamil Nadu and is in striking distance of the halfway mark, manages to hold the lead, it will be a watershed moment not just in Tamil Nadu but Indian politics too, with very few parallels.

Indian politics has rarely seen a political party capture power in its very first elections, let alone just a year after its formation. The TVK’s surge, which means that the political landscape of Tamil Nadu — dominated over the last six decades by Dravidian majors DMK and the AIADMK — will change. And Tamil Nadu will be witnessing history.

Tamil Nadu had created history six decades ago when it became the first state to elect a regional party to power, ending the Congress’s electoral and political hegemony. That was in 1967, the era when the Congress had absolute electoral domination. Since then, the state has been ruled by the DMK and the AIADMK and that is set to change. Read more

As the counting in the Assembly Elections across four states and a Union Territory enters the fifth hour, West Bengal stands at the precipice of a paradigm shift with the BJP crossing the halfway mark, leaving the Trinamool Congress struggling to reach 100. In Kerala, Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) too is poised to replace the Left Democratic Front (LDF), while actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is making one of the strongest debuts in India’s electoral history, leading in over 100 out of 234 seats in the Tamil Nadu Assembly.

The gruesome RG Kar rape and murder in August 2024 that triggered protests across West Bengal is now making its direct impact felt on the political battleground too.

In the Assembly elections 2026, the BJP had fielded the victim's mother against TMC's Tirthankar Ghosh from Panihati constituency.

When The Indian Express visited Panihati ahead of the polls, the people said a change is the need of the hour.

The sympathy votes played a pivotal role in the seat as the BJP is now ahead of the TMC by a margin of more than 2,500 votes.

In the tribal belt, the BJP is seen to have a lead in the majority of the seats. In Jhargram, the BJP is ahead in 3 out of 4 seats. In Purulia, the party is leading in 7 seats, while the TMC is the top-scoring party in 2. In Bankura, the BJP is ahead in 6 seats, while the TMC in 2 seats.

Unemployment and migration have emerged as key issues in this Assembly election. While the BJP and other Opposition parties have targeted Banerjee over the issue, the CM has emphasised job creation as a priority. However, on the ground there was a clamour for jobs within the state.

Just before the ongoing Assembly elections were announced, the TMC government launched the Yuva Sathi scheme, offering a monthly stipend of Rs 1,500 to unemployed youth. Over 80 lakh youths registered, and a sizable section has begun receiving the money.

Actor Vijay’s TVK has crossed 100-mark, racing past DMK, AIADMK in Tamil Nadu. If trends remain the same, actor-politician Vijay’s TVK is set to emerge as a key player in Tamil Nadu, possibly even the single-largest party in the state. TVK leads in 93 seats, AIADMK in 74 and DMK in 58.

Until now, Tamil Nadu has been overwhelmingly dominated by the two Dravidian parties -- DMK and AIADMK. Only rarely has it been governed by others. Before Dravidian dominance, Congress ruled the state (then called Madras state) between 1947 and 1967.

Thereafter, only once has the state come under Congress rule. In 1988-1989, there was a brief period of Congress rule under Janaki Ramachandran (technically the AIADMK faction), followed by President’s Rule.

There have also been short periods of President’s Rule, not party governance.

So, practically, for over 50 years, Tamil Nadu politics has been a two-party system.

The regional Christian party, Kerala Congress, led by P J Joseph, is leading in seven seats, while the rival faction of Jose K Mani, which is with LDF, is leading only in two seats. This trend broadly indicates that Christian votes have consolidated in favour of UDF in 2026.

Though trailing in the first round, Mamata Banerjee’s lead in Bhabanipur has now extended to 1,996 votes. The margin is still low given the number of counting rounds left in the hands.

Confident of the BJP's win, Suvendu Adhikari has, however, predicted a saffron government in West Bengal.

The Congress-led UDF is looking forward to a major comeback in Kerala assembly elections. Out of 140 seats, UDF is leading in 96 seats, while LDF is ahead only in 40 seats. NDA is leading in four, including Nemom. In the 2021 assembly elections, LDF had 99 seats, while UDF had 41.

The trend shows that UDF could retain a clear lead in its sitting seats apart from making gains in CPI(M)’s traditional stronghold districts of Kozhikode, Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, and Palakkad. UDF seems to have regained its lost ground in the central Kerala districts of Kottayam and Idukki.

NDA is leading in Palakkad, Thiruvalla, Kozhikode South, apart from Nemom.

In Kottayam district, the trend seems to be in favour of UDF.

In 2021, most of the seats in the Christian belt had gone to the LDF. A similar trend is seen in the Idukki district also, where UDF seems to have regained an upper hand. Many of the LDF ministers are trailing behind their UDF rivals right from the beginning of the counting of EVM votes. Ministers M B Rajesh, Roshi Augustine, O R Kelu, and P Rajeeve are leading. In CPI(M) strongholds of Alappuzha, Congress has gained an edge over CPI(M).

Among the BJP candidates, Rajeev Chandrasekhar is leading in Nemom, and K. Surendran in Manjeswaram. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan is leading Dharmadom, while high-profile CPI(M) candidate K K Shailaja is trailing behind Congress state president Sunny Joseph in Peravoor.

As the very early initial trends begin to trickle in, the BJP seems to be establishing an early lead in multiple constituencies in Assam. The initial constituency-wise trends released by the ECI show early leads for several sitting BJP ministers: Pijush Hazarika from Jagiroad, Ajanta Neog from Golaghat, and Bimal Borah from Tingkhang.

The saffron party is eyeing a third consecutive term in the state, and has exuded confidence that it will have its most commanding win yet since the party first came to power in the state a decade ago in 2016, banking on the incumbent government’s plethora of beneficiary schemes, particularly those targeting women beneficiaries; polarization; its report card on development projects; the contentious delimitation exercise which is believed to have tilted the political map in its favour.

The postal ballots and the initial trends are showing a neck-to-neck fight between the TMC and the BJP in Bengal.

As of now, TMC is leading in 58 seats, while BJP is ahead in 70 seats.

These early trends show that the BJP has a slight edge over Bengal's ruling party.

Interestingly, Congress, which scored a zero in the 2021 Assembly polls, is leading in 2 seats.

Both the Congress (running solo) and the Left-ISF alliance failed to win a single seat in 2021. Congress is targeting Muslim-majority border districts (Malda, Murshidabad, Uttar Dinajpur). The CPI(M) has fielded a wave of young faces. Watch whether they make a breakthrough or get squeezed out once again.

Meanwhile, early trends have started trickling in: Very early counting showed DMK leading in 4 seats, AIADMK in 2, and TVK in 1.

In Kerala, UDF is leading in 9 seats, LDF in 4.

In Bengal, TMC is leading in 5, BJP in 4. Assam has BJP leading in 10, AIUDF in 1.

The exit poll results last week have predicted a decisive mandate for the incumbent BJP led by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, with some of them even predicting a sweep by the BJP-led NDA.

As NDA is poised to return to power, all eyes will on the BJP’s tally today.

While the BJP has gone from strength to strength in Assam over the past decade, it has yet to get a clear majority on its own in the 126-member state Assembly. Both in 2016, when it first came to power in Assam, and in 2021, when it returned to power for the second term, the party bagged 60 seats, crossing the majority mark with its allies.

Counting of votes for 140 seats in the Kerala Assembly elections will begin at 8 am today. Votes will be counted at 140 centres located in 43 places across the state. The trend of the outcome will start trickling in by 9 am.

Strong rooms, where EVMs are kept, are opened in the early morning in the presence of the returning officials and agents of the candidates. EVMs will be taken to counting halls, where votes will be counted in various rounds. Every constituency will have 12 to 14 counting tables. Counting will begin with postal ballots and later EVMs will be opened.

The face-off is being seen as the “battle of Mamata’s life”, who has been known for her combative politics and fighting spirit. If she manages to pull off her fourth Assembly poll triumph, it will further enhance her stature among top Opposition leaders at the national level.

Securing a long-awaited win in Bengal, dislodging the DMK in Tamil Nadu along with ally AIADMK, making inroads in Kerala, and retaining Assam with a larger mandate. This is what the result day is expected to look like for the BJP as votes are counted for the Assembly elections in the four states and the Union Territory of Puducherry.

However, the exit polls have thrown up a mixed bag for the BJP, with anxiety and doubts persisting about whether it can bring down the Mamata Banerjee government in West Bengal. In Tamil Nadu, the party is worried about actor Vijay’s TVK undercutting its momentum, and in Kerala, it finds itself navigating a triangular contest dominated by the traditional rivalry between the LDF and UDF. The only state where the BJP holds no doubt is Assam, where the party expects a historic consolidation of power, turning the incumbency into a resounding mandate. In Puducherry, the party feels assured that the ruling coalition, in which it is a partner, will return to power.

All four states and a UT, that went to the polls this time, clocked record voter turnout! However, each of the contesting parties has argued that the high polling percentage favours them. In West Bengal, the BJP has contended that the high voter percentage signifies anti-incumbency polling to ring in a change in the government.

In Assam, the BJP has claimed the people have given more votes looking forward to continue with a stable government. "We will just say our own sinaki (familiar) people have given more votes this time… Our other people who would earlier hesitate in some way have come forward to vote for a strong government,” Assam BJP president Dilip Saikia said.