With the stage set for counting of votes for the Assam Assembly elections on Monday, here are five things that will remain in focus in the state.
The exit polls have forecast a decisive mandate for the incumbent BJP led by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, with some of them even predicting a sweep by the BJP-led NDA. In the event of the NDA’s return to power, all eyes will be on the BJP’s tally. While the BJP has gone from strength to strength in Assam over the past decade, it has yet to get a clear majority on its own in the 126-member state Assembly. Both in 2016, when it first came to power in Assam, and in 2021, when it returned to power for the second term, the party bagged 60 seats, crossing the majority mark with its allies.
This time, the BJP left no stone unturned to dominate the contest, banking on various planks, including the Sarma government’s plethora of welfare schemes, especially those meant for women beneficiaries; polarisation; and a push for development projects. A key question that the poll results will answer is whether the BJP would be able to secure a hattrick and reinforce its dominance in state politics.
A favourable poll outcome would also boost Sarma’s political stature, who is looking for a second term as the CM. He led the BJP-led alliance’s campaign from the front, going all out to clinch the polls for his party.
Congress’s fate
Notwithstanding the setbacks that it has suffered since 2016 and the unabated defection of its leaders to the BJP, the Congress sought to fight the BJP head-on in this election, putting up its state party president Gaurav Gogoi directly as a challenger to Sarma. In its campaign, the Congress went for confronting Sarma and his dispensation frontally by levelling allegations of misrule and corruption against him, his family and ministers.
The Congress also rejigged its coalition, snapping ties with its former ally, the Badruddin Ajmal-led AIUDF, despite the latter being the third largest party in the state. Instead, the Congress aligned with smaller regional outfits. By contesting under the leadership of a clear face in the form of Gaurav Gogoi, the party has been hoping to improve its 2021 tally of 29 seats. It remains to be seen whether these changes will bring electoral dividends for the grand old party.
Three Gogois
Observers will be keenly watching the performance of three Gogois in the fray. Despite being a three-time MP and the Congress’s Deputy Leader in the Lok Sabha, Gaurav Gogoi is contesting in this Assembly election as a candidate for the first time. He faces a stiff challenge in the Jorhat constituency from the incumbent MLA and BJP veteran, Hitendra Nath Goswami.
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The other two Gogois are the Congress’s key partners, with whom it has joined hands in a bid to gain ground in Upper Assam. Akhil Gogoi, the president of the Raijor Dal, which was formed in the aftermath of the anti-CAA protests in 2020, is seeking to retain the Sivasagar seat he had won in 2021. He is facing a dual challenge — from the BJP, which has fielded former ULFA leader Kushal Duwari against him, and the sitting MLA from the BJP’s ally AGP, Prodip Hazarika.
Former All Assam Students Union (AASU) leader Lurinjyoti Gogoi, who founded the Assam Jatiya Parishad following the anti-CAA stir, is contesting from Khowang. He has yet to register an electoral win, having lost in both the 2021 Assembly and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. This election is a test of his leadership too.
Delimitation factor
Amid the recent political storm over delimitation at the national level, a key question is how the redrawn constituencies in Assam after the 2023 delimitation would play out in this first Assembly election after the contentious exercise, which is said to have tilted the state’s political map in the BJP’s favour.
The Western Assam region, known as Lower Assam, in particular saw a drastic redrawing of constituencies. This was a region where the Congress and its then ally AIUDF had registered significant wins in 2021. It will be interesting to see whether the revised electoral map also translates into changes in representation.
Regional outfits
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While the BJP and the Congress dominate political discourse, the poll outcome will also have a significant bearing on the fate of several smaller parties which shape Assam politics.
The AIUDF has been left isolated in state politics, reeling under Ajmal’s crushing defeat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. For the party, the current election is a fight for survival.
The elections will also be crucial for the AGP, which has shrunk in influence over the years under the shadow of its senior partner BJP. In more than half the 26 seats it has contested this time as part of the NDA, the AGP has fielded Muslim candidates. It will be closely tracked whether the party manages to win from these minority dominated seats.
