As Nitish Kumar heads to the Rajya Sabha, paving the way for Bihar to get its first BJP Chief Minister, party leaders feel that the ripple effect would be felt in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh, which will see Assembly polls next year.
According to Uttar Pradesh BJP leaders, installing a BJP CM in Bihar could help consolidate support of the OBC groups as well as strengthen the party’s appeal in Eastern Uttar Pradesh, where social and political linkages with Bihar are significant.
A section of the BJP also feels that the choice of Bihar CM would also have implications for caste equations in Uttar Pradesh, which is currently helmed by Yogi Adityanath, who hails from the upper caste Thakur community. “Majority of the dominant caste groups in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are the same. Since Adityanath hails from an upper caste, an OBC CM in Bihar would complement the party’s social balance,” a BJP leader said.
In Uttar Pradesh, Kushwahas, Mauryas, Sainis and Shakyas are often grouped within the same broader OBC cluster and have influence across different regions of the state. While Sainis are influential in western UP, Kushwahas and Mauryas have a presence in central and eastern UP, and Shakyas in the Bundelkhand and Braj regions.
“The BJP has been in power in UP since 2017. Apart from the anti-incumbency of nearly a decade, the setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections due to the Samajwadi Party (SP)-Congress alliance and unrest among Brahmin voters will be issues of concern in the next Assembly elections,” said another BJP leader in Uttar Pradesh.
Leaders in both the BJP and JD(U) expect that Nitish could be replaced by a Kurmi, Kushwaha or an Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) leader, leading to speculation that Bihar Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary, a Kushwaha leader, would helm Bihar.
Eastern UP
Eastern Uttar Pradesh, which shares a long border with Bihar, is seen as particularly sensitive to political developments across the border. Districts of the region including Maharajganj, Kushinagar, Deoria, Ballia, Ghazipur, Chandauli and Sonbhadra together account for 41 Assembly seats.
In the 2022 Assembly elections, the BJP and its ally, the Nishad Party, won 27 of these seats, while the SP and its ally, the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), won 12. The Congress and the BSP won one seat each.
However, the BJP suffered setbacks in the region in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The SP won five seats — Ballia, Ghazipur, Chandauli, Robertsganj and Salempur — covering around 40 Assembly segments in these districts. The BJP retained only three seats: Kushinagar, Maharajganj and Deoria.
Party leaders say that stronger political coordination between Bihar and Eastern Uttar Pradesh could help the BJP regain lost ground.
“Movement of any tall OBC leader from Bihar can help us in winning back support of OBCs and upper-caste voters in these districts,” said a BJP leader from Eastern Uttar Pradesh.
Frequent movement of people between the two states also adds to the political linkage. Medical facilities in Eastern UP, particularly in Gorakhpur and Varanasi, cater to a large population from Bihar, and family and economic ties ensure regular cross-border interaction.
Effect in Bengal?
Some BJP leaders also see an indirect impact of installing a BJP CM in Bihar in poll-bound West Bengal, where districts such as Darjeeling, Uttar Dinajpur and Malda share a border with Bihar and together account for 26 Assembly seats.
In the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections, the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) won 15 of these seats while the BJP won 11.
Party leaders claim migrant populations from Bihar living in border districts and Hindi-speaking urban centres could also be influenced by political developments in Bihar, though they acknowledge the effect is likely to be limited compared to Uttar Pradesh.
Bihar CM Nitish Kumar on Thursday filed his nomination for the Rajya Sabha. 
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