An alliance of absences in Tamil Nadu: Why AIADMK-NDA front may be losing steam

One by one, its most recognisable faces are stepping away. First, former Tamil Nadu BJP chief K Annamalai pulled back from the Assembly poll responsibilities. Former CM O Panneerselvam is also likely to sit out of the elections, as is Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) leader Anbumani Ramadoss. Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) leader T T V Dhinakaran has already announced that he will not contest the polls.

What should have been a show of strength is beginning to look like a thinning of the stage. The alliance has arithmetic on paper, but it lacks something more essential in Tamil Nadu politics: a narrative, a face, a reason for the crowd to believe. The coalition, which is the DMK’s primary rival, feels less like math and more like a negotiation between wounded egos.

The sidelining of Annamalai

There was a time when Annamalai was the loudest voice in the room. He attacked the DMK and the AIADMK almost daily over alleged corruption, mocked their leaders, and positioned the BJP as a moral force. For nearly two years, he was the disruptor, the outsider who spoke like a cop, not a politician, the man who made the BJP visible in districts where it once barely existed.

Even his critics admit privately that Annamalai elevated the BJP’s popularity in the state. Then came the alliance. And suddenly, he fell silent. On Tuesday, he stepped down as the election in-charge for six constituencies, citing his father’s ill health. “I am staying here in Coimbatore to care for my father … I am ready to work on campaigning … In politics, I will do as the party insists,” he said.

It sounded sincere. The family reason is also true. But in Tamil Nadu politics, sincerity often travels with subtext. Senior BJP leaders concede what party workers already sensed — the sidelining began earlier. When Nainar Nagendran replaced him as state chief, Annamalai’s operational space shrank. Finally, cornering him with just six constituencies was nothing but limited visibility. No broad mandate.

Top leaders like Annamalai and former Tamil Nadu BJP chief Tamilisai Soundararajan, who had driven the BJP’s growth earlier, are suddenly peripheral. One RSS functionary monitoring developments put it bluntly: the alliance happened because Annamalai was sidelined.

The irony was sharp. The man who attacked the AIADMK most aggressively had to make room for an alliance with it. Politics often demands compromise. But this looked like a subtraction. Nagendran is not unpopular. He is grounded and organisational. But he is local. He does not electrify crowds the way Annamalai once did. He lacks statewide recall. In Tamil Nadu, a party chief needs theatre as much as structure. Charisma matters as much as booth committees.

The others sitting out

The BJP today looks like a party that traded visibility for manageability. It gained an alliance, but lost an edge. And it is not just Annamalai.

Panneerselvam is likely to sit out, sidelined by the BJP national leadership after the alliance talks. Anbumani may skip the Assembly race, eyeing a Rajya Sabha seat. Dhinakaran too has chosen not to contest. “I will not be contesting… I will work to make my party cadres MLAs,” TTV said.

These are not fringe figures. They are recognisable faces with constituencies and loyalists. When too many leaders choose not to run, it sends an unintended message – not confidence, but hesitation.

The AIADMK’s reunion with the NDA itself feels procedural. Only months ago, the AMMK was blamed for splitting AIADMK votes and costing it seats. Even a few weeks ago, Dhinakaran had ruled out any alignment with AIADMK general secretary and former CM Edappadi K Palaniswami, or EPS. Days later, the feud was “resolved”.

To be fair, EPS has done something few expected after Jayalalithaa’s death and a revolt backed by the BJP and the RSS. He kept the party from collapsing. Through defections and splinters, he held the AIADMK together, retained control over most of its organisational and financial resources, and ensured no major leader in the core hierarchy drifted to the BJP. That is not a small achievement in a country where parties often fracture overnight.

But survival is not momentum. EPS has kept the machine running, not energised it. The party functions, fields candidates, negotiates alliances and yet, rarely generates enthusiasm. There is stability, but little spark. The AIADMK under EPS feels intact, but not alive.

The Vijay factor

And then there is Vijay and Tamilagar Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). In theory, the AIADMK-NDA alliance was meant to present a united Opposition to the DMK. In practice, its loudest energy is being spent on the Tamil superstar-turned-politician. Pointing at Vijay’s indirect reference to the AIADMK as a “corrupt party”, EPS asked the actor to watch the news, meet people, and know what is happening in the state politics.

“What is a corrupt party? Whom is he talking about? Let him specify… Let Vijay speak clearly, naming us. We will reply. We are a party that ruled the state for 31 years. Why should I reply to something said by someone ignorant about everything?” said the AIADMK leader.

Over the past week, leaders have attacked Vijay with unusual intensity. AIADMK leader and former Speaker D Jayakumar mocked him, Dhinakaran taunted him, and Annamalai questioned whether his “engine” even existed. The attacks feel coordinated. But also slightly panicked.

When the alliance talks in the language of structure — committees, seat sharing, in-charges — Vijay speaks the language of presence. The alliance knows how to fight parties, but Vijay is not operating on the logic of conventional political parties. So every attack on the TVK leader sounds unsure of its target. The messaging shifts daily. Which is another way of saying: there is no clarity. When the most visible action of an alliance is attacking an actor, it signals something deeper — not strength, but confusion. If Vijay truly did not matter, they would ignore him. Instead, he dominates their sentences.

Search for a story

The NDA-AIADMK has arithmetic but not a story. Who is the face? EPS? Annamalai, who stepped back? Nagendran? Leaders who are not contesting?

Tamil Nadu elections are decided by coalitions, but they are remembered for their mood. Right now, the AIADMK-NDA alliance feels procedural and careful. Politics, however, is also about energy and energy cannot be manufactured by seat-sharing charts. It has to come from belief. Or from a face people want to follow.

Until the alliance finds that clarity, its loudest weapon may remain what we are already seeing: sharper taunts, louder attacks, and fewer answers about itself.

In politics, when you keep talking about your opponent, you slowly stop talking about who you are.