Amritpal Singh’s detention extended, bets are off on who gains the most

In the case of Amritpal’s aides the main reason for their detention was their association with Amritpal, with the government essentially building its case against him and accusing the others of being his associates.

Unlike his associates, Amritpal was booked in January under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act for a murder in Faridkot. Amritpal was alleged to have conspired to commit murder from the Dibrugarh jail in Assam in association with gangster Arsh Dalla.

However, Amritpal’s supporters point to the fact that there has been no further provocative action on their part. In fact, the pro-Khalistan Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar) has even accused Amritpal and his new party, Akali Dal Waris Punjab De, of stepping back from the demand for Khalistan. “Amritpal Singh’s father has said that Khalistan is not their agenda. If Khalistan is not their agenda, then we have nothing in common with them,” SAD(A) president Simranjit Singh Mann said recently.

Mann and Amritpal’s parties held separate rallies during the festivals of Maghi and Baisakhi. At both rallies, The SAD(A) rallies aggressively raised the demand for Khalistan, with the Muktsar one showcasing photographs of some police officers and politicians as “killers of Sikhs”. At another rally, the party celebrated Hardeep Singh Nijjar, the chief of separatist outfit Khalistan Tiger Force, whose killing in Canada in 2022 has put the Indian government at cross purposes with Canada.

However, Amritpal’s party, which was launched at the Maghi festival on January 14, has focused on mainstream issues, including drug abuse. At its launch event, the party passed several resolutions, but Khalistan found no mention in them.

However, if there was hope that the party not raising the Khalistan issue would help Amritpal’s case, that has been belied for now.

How Punjab parties see Amritpal detention

The AAP, which was initially seen as “soft” on Sikh separatists, had sought to put an end to this notion when its government put Amritpal behind bars.

While the AAP was unable to gain much from the detention of Amritpal during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP increased its vote share in the state despite not winning any seat. During a recent Parliament session, Union Home Minister Amit Shah claimed credit for Amritpal’s detention under the NSA.

However, in the 2027 Assembly polls, a section of voters may be inclined towards the AAP for the prolonged detention of Amritpal if the BJP fails to counter the perception that it cannot form the government in the state.

Some Congress leaders, meanwhile, have opposed the NSA against Amritpal in the hopes that Amritpal’s party won’t become an “alternative” and his sympathisers may prefer the Congress rather than “wasting their votes”.

If Amritpal is released, the biggest challenge would be for the Akali factions including the Sukhbir Badal-led SAD and the SAD(A). Both parties have struggled with their stance on the detention of Amritpal, whom they see as competition for their core vote bank.

‘Threats to peace’ in Punjab over the years

The allegations of threats to peace and harmony in Punjab are not new. Under the Parkash Singh Badal-led Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-BJP alliance government, the organisers of the Sarbat Khalsa – a gathering called by anti-SAD Sikh bodies in the aftermath of the Bargari sacrilege case in 2015 – were considered a threat to peace and harmony. They were booked under sedition charges, which was viewed as “political vendetta” by the SAD-BJP government against the Sarbat Khalsa organisers. The sedition case was put on the back burner during the Congress government’s tenure in the state from 2017 to 2022.

In 2018, the Bargari Morcha was also alleged to pose a threat to peace and harmony in the state, with then-Congress MP Ravneet Singh Bittu accusing its organisers of being behind a bomb blast. Later, however, the Amarinder Singh-led government had engaged with Bargari Morcha leader Dhian Singh Mand, and met key demands related to sacrilege cases.

After the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) came to power in Punjab in 2022, it was Amritpal who emerged as an alleged threat to peace and harmony, particularly after thousands of his supporters stormed a police station in Amritsar in February 2023 to demand the release of an Amritpal aide who had been detained in a kidnapping case.