Why Ajit Pawar demise has dealt a big blow to Fadnavis as Mahayuti churn begins
Fadnavis always relied on Ajit to keep their another Mahayuti ally Eknath Shinde in check; Ajit's demise also rekindles the prospects of two NCP factions' merger, which may also dent BJP's supremacy
“One day, I wish to become the Maharashtra chief minister,” Ajit Pawar would often say, ruefully. He had every quality that was needed — excellent administrative skills, a great capacity for hard work, a grasp of a variety of topics, social connect and the ability to find a way out of any situation. (Express Photo) With the sudden demise of NCP president and Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, senior BJP leader and CM Devendra Fadnavis has lost a close friend and a key ally.
The stunning development is set to have a crucial bearing on both the ruling Mahayuti coalition as well as the two factions of the NCP.
Fadnavis always relied on Ajit to keep their another Mahayuti ally, Shiv Sena president and Deputy CM Eknath Shinde, in check, who is known to be a hard bargainer.
Ajit’s untimely passing away could thus lead to Fadnavis and the BJP losing their leverage against Shinde. It may also rekindle the prospects of the two NCP factions – with the NCP(SP) led by Ajit’s uncle Sharad Pawar – merging together, which may also dent the BJP’s supremacy in state politics, sources said.
The scenes of November 23, 2019, when both Fadnavis and Ajit took oath at a dawn ceremony in Raj Bhavan amid hectic negotiations between the then undivided Shiv Sena and NCP along with the Congress to form a non-BJP government following the hung verdict in the Assembly polls, are still fresh in many minds in Maharashtra.
Shortly afterwards, however, Sharad Pawar managed to bring Ajit back into the fold of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, which formed the government under Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray’s chief ministership.
Later, Fadnavis termed the teaming up with Ajit Pawar to form the short-lived government as a mistake, but he insisted that he did not regret. Fadnavis always considered Ajit as a reliable political ally, who helped him to deal with Shinde in their Mahayuti government, sources said. Some leaders close to Shinde still believe that he would have been the CM following the November 2024 Assembly polls if this Fadnavis-Ajit “teaming up” had not played out.
Shinde became the CM in June, 2022 in the previous Mahayuti government after he split the Sena that led to the Uddhav government’s collapse. One year later, in July 2023, Ajit split the Sharad Pawar-led NCP to join the Shinde-led government as the Deputy CM. Most of the NCP MLAs and several senior party leaders including Praful Patel, a key Senior Pawar aide, joined the Ajit faction.
“Ajit Pawar joining NDA was entirely a Fadnavis move. The BJP’s central leadership was not so pleased about it. In fact, he joined the NDA a few days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi called him out. The BJP leadership was always keen to have Sharad Pawar in their camp,” said a BJP source from Maharashtra.
In his address to BJP booth workers in Bhopal on June 27, 2023, Modi accused the NCP of being allegedly involved in a Rs 70,000 crore scam. On July 2, 2023, the BJP embraced Ajit Pawar, who was alleged to be the prime accused in this irrigation scam.
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After the Mahayuti swept the November 2024 polls, with the BJP winning 132 of 288 seats as compared to the Shinde Sena’s 57 seats and Ajit NCP’s 41 seats, Shinde again indulged in some hard bargaining in a bid to claim the CM’s post again. It was however thwarted by Fadnavis with help from Ajit.
In the election, the NCP(SP) faced a major setback as it could win only 10 of the 87 seats it contested, following which both factions started to come closer. Their move to join hands in recent civic body polls came a cropper. However, in a recent interview, Ajit talked about the merger again. “The workers of both parties want to unite. The two NCPs are together now. All tensions in our family have ended,” Pawar had told NDTV earlier this month.
Ajit’s death leaves a big question mark for the NCP now. “There has always been a Pawar in Maharashtra politics. Now there are two possibilities – the entire clan can come together. They were almost there before Ajit’s plane crash. The two NCPs were almost wiped out in the local body polls. But now if the merger happens, Sharad Pawar will be calling the shots entirely. If he joins the NDA, Fadnavis will lose his pre-eminent position. And if Senior Pawar decides to remain in the Opposition INDIA bloc and gain traction, it may also not be good for Fadnavis because he cannot ignore Shinde then,” said the source.
“But if the NCP joins the NDA, Shinde is going to be sidelined again,” said another BJP leader from Maharashtra. “However, the emergence of Ajit Pawar’s family – his wife Sunetra, a Rajya Sabha member, or sons – cannot be ruled. In Indian politics, that phenomenon is quite normal,” he added.
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