After Bengal sweep, why BJP needs to wait till 2029 for dominance in Rajya Sabha
After merger of seven AAP MPs with BJP, NDA’s tally in Rajya Sabha stands at 148 seats – 15 short of a two-thirds majority – which could rise to 152 by 2028-end
BJP workers celebrate at the state party headquarters in Kolkata. (PTI Photo/File) While its unprecedented sweep of West Bengal will add more confidence to the BJP’s campaign for over half a dozen state Assembly elections due next year, the NDA will have to wait till 2029 for its dominance to take shape in the Rajya Sabha.
Following the merger of seven Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) MPs with the BJP in the Rajya Sabha, the BJP-led NDA’s tally in the Council of States is currently 148 in the 245-member House – 15 seats short of a two-thirds majority of 163 seats required for pushing significant legislative business like the constitutional amendments.
The NDA members in the Upper House include 113 MPs of the BJP, 5 of the AIADMK, 4 each from the Janata Dal (United) and NCP, 2 each from the Telugu Desam Party, Shiv Sena and United People’s Party (Liberal) and 1 each from the Rashtriya Lok Dal, Janata Dal (Secular), Ason Gana Parishad, Republican Party of India (Athawale) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha.
The tally also includes 7 nominated members who have not yet joined the BJP, Independent MP Kartikeya Sharma, and one each from the MNF, NPP, and PMK.
There are 35 vacancies to be created in the Rajya Sabha this year – 23 in June, 1 in July and 11 in November; but none of the seats belong to Bengal, where the BJP’s Assembly tally has more than doubled now. Three vacancies will arise in Kerala in April 2027, and 1 in Puducherry in October 2027, totalling 4 for the year.
In 2028, 70 vacancies will arise in the Upper House, including 6 in Tamil Nadu, 2 in Assam, 3 in Kerala.
In 2029, of the 10 total expected vacancies, 6 will be in Bengal. However, these vacancies will be created only after the Lok Sabha polls slated for that year.
An analysis of the pending Rajya Sabha vacancies until the 2029 Lok Sabha polls in the states that have just completed their Assembly elections shows that of the 15 total vacancies across Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, the NDA is projected to win 4 seats while the Opposition parties are set to bag 11 seats, unchanged from the current tallies in these seats.
In Bengal, where 6 vacancies will arise only after the 2029 Lok Sabha polls, the NDA is set to win 4 seats and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) 1 seat, going by the new Assembly composition. No party has the numbers for 1 remaining seat, whose clinching may involve cross-voting or support from smaller parties.
Between now and the end of 2028, 83 Rajya Sabha vacancies are expected to arise in 22 states, all of which will be filled before their state Assembly elections are held on the basis of the current House compositions. Of these 83 vacancies, the NDA is projected to win 51 seats, the Opposition 31, and just 1 other seat for which no party has the necessary numbers. Currently, the NDA holds 47 of these 83 seats and the Opposition parties 36 seats, amounting to an increase of 4 seats for the NDA and a decline of 5 seats for the Opposition.
Going by the projected outcomes in these 83 pending vacancies, the NDA’s strength in the Rajya Sabha could rise to 152 seats – 11 short of a two-third majority mark. However, with the 4 projected wins for the BJP in Bengal in 2029, the NDA tally could then go up to 156.
However, another 26 vacancies will arise across 7 states in 2028 – all after they would hold their next state elections in 2027 and 2028, which could change the state Assemblies’ composition and impact voting for the Rajya Sabha polls. Among these 26 vacancies, 22 seats are currently held by the BJP and 4 by the Opposition parties. Going by the current Assembly strength in these states, the NDA is projected to win 12 Rajya Sabha seats, the Opposition parties 13, with no party having the numbers for 1 seat. However, with major elections scheduled in states like Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh in 2027-28, the Assembly composition could see significant changes in these states by the time the vacancies arise.
The outcome of the Assembly elections in these 7 states will be crucial for the NDA’s push towards a two-thirds majority in the Rajya Sabha. Though Punjab accounts for 7 Rajya Sabha vacancies – 6 of the current MPs have now been added to the NDA’s kitty after their defection to the BJP – sources said coming to power in Punjab and Telangana, which have both remained electorally elusive, and retaining Uttar Pradesh, where it holds 24 of the 31 Rajya Sabha seats, are the BJP’s immediate priorities.
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