5 things to watch out for in Kerala polls: LDF’s hat-trick bid, UDF’s make-or-break battle, BJP’s rise

CPI(M)’s chance for a hat-trick

The CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) government has been in power for the last decade under Pinarayi Vijayan. Claiming that its government is not under the shadow of anti-incumbency, the Left is seeking a third consecutive term harping on the “changed Kerala” under Vijayan over the last 10 years. The election will reveal whether the changes on various fronts introduced by the Left government have connected with the people, or whether voters make a return to changing the government.

‘Make or break’ for UDF

For the Congress-led UDF, the polls are nothing short of a make-or-break battle. After being in the Opposition for a decade, the Congress sees the outcome in this election as crucial for its political future in Kerala. The UDF and the Congress may not have the strength to withstand yet another electoral defeat. The last time the UDF secured a decisive mandate in the Assembly elections was in 2001 when it won 99 out of 140 seats. Its victory in the 2011 Assembly elections was only by a narrow margin of two seats. Therefore, both the UDF and the Congress are aiming for a clear and decisive mandate this time.

The LDF won its second straight term in the 2021 Assembly polls.

The BJP factor

The BJP, which has been in power at the Centre for the last 12 years, is taking on Kerala electoral battle with a renewed strategy and the campaign slogan “Vikasit Keralam (develop Kerala)”. Two factors are expected to energise the party’s campaign and confidence; its historic victory in the Thiruvananthapuram municipal corporation, where the party ended four-decade long Left regime and secondly, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where it won its first-ever seat in Kerala.

The BJP has high stakes in Assembly seats of Nemom, Vattiyoorkavu and Kazhakootam, which encompass areas within the Thiruvananthapuram civic body. Besides, the party’s growing vote graph is likely to impact the verdict in many constituencies where the CPI(M) and the Congress are engaged in a bipolar contest.

What happens to Vijayan?

The outcome of the election will answer another question within the CPI(M). Will Vijayan, who has been the face of the party’s electoral politics for the past 10 years, continue to hold that position, or will a new leader emerge as the face of the CPM’s parliamentary politics? Regardless of the election outcome, Vijayan will likely have a decisive say in finding his successor.

Key issues

The alleged involvement of a few CPI(M) leaders in the scandal pertaining to the theft of gold from Sabarimala temple artefacts is likely to emerge as an issue during the campaign. The state government’s climb down on young women’s entry at the temple will also likely be a campaign talking point. Unemployment, price rise, farm sector crisis due to increasing wildlife attack and financial crisis among the rural people are also slated to be issues for parties.

The ruling CPIM) is likely to showcase the infrastructure development in Kerala over the last one decade. The state’s claim on investment in public health, education, and other sectors is also under scrutiny. Ahead of the elections, the government had introduced a slew of welfare schemes and addressed several long-pending woes of various sections of society in an attempt of blunt anti-incumbency.