Bihar buzz: Modi leading light, Tejashwi sonrise, Nitish sunset

Conversations on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his policies are intense and divided but his supporters underline the TINA (there-is-no-alternative) factor this election and that the BJP under Modi should do better than those dissing the BJP.

Yet they concede that the tally may dip below the 2019 near-sweep of 39 out of 40 seats.

There is one consensus that seems to cut across quite a few fault lines, even among detractors of the RJD: Tejashwi Yadav is a politician who has worked hard to ensure that the legacy of his father Lalu Prasad doesn’t fade away.

“I am with Modiji here, and he will be PM again. But do not forget that Tejashwi has worked hard to keep his party alive while Lalu Prasad was either in jail or ailing. He is leading from the front. Ek din Chief Minister ban ke rahega ye jaan lijiye (take my word, he will become CM one day),” says Ravi Ranjan of Muzaffarpur city.

In Samastipur, a supporter of BJP ally LJP has a similar take. “Tejashwi woh neta-putra hai jo raj yog ke liye bana hai. Ghoomta raha rajya bhar mein jab Lalu Yadav jail mein thai ya bimar thai. Toh aage to jaayega hi ek din (Tejashwi worked hard when his father was either in jail or ailing. He will go far).”

Yadavs in the state are backing Tejashwi, seeing him as the successor of Lalu Prasad. But there are others who, while acknowledging Tejashwi’s growing heft, concede that the NDA is better placed, and that Modi is all set to return to power for a third term.

The one man whose graph seems to be falling, and who people think is fading away, is Nitish Kumar, the “survivor” who has remained in power for almost two decades despite being from a caste group, the Kurmi, that is barely 3 per cent of the state population.

In the political sky this time, there is unanimity — across NDA and INDIA —that this is Nitish Kumar’s sunset. While Yadavs are unforgiving after his latest shift to the NDA, even NDA supporters mock him. “Nitish has brains. He is No. 3 each time, yet he becomes CM,” says an NDA supporter in Muzaffarpur to the merriment of all around him.

“Sushasan Babu Sushasan mein hi mil gaye. Woh paltu Baba hain (Sushasan Babu bites the dust on governance…he’s the master of flip-flops,” says Santosh Yadav, who sells tea at a busy junction near the Darbhanga airport.

Across the state from him, Kushwaha villagers in Kutumba block of Aurangabad — next door to Jharkhand — are more  unforgiving. “He is a blot on Bihar. He has no ideology,” says an old man, his frown deepening his wrinkles. The subtext: they support Abhay Kushwaha, fielded by the RJD, here.

And yet, in Bihar, politics is never about black and white. As this correspondent waits in a Samastipur hotel for a meeting with a state Minister on his campaign trail, political workers from various NDA parties are engaged in a conversation in the large room over cups of tea.

“Nitish babu is down but his political impact will take time to disappear,” says Ajit Kumar, a local political worker. “His crossing over time and again has dented his image and the early Sushasan Babu image doesn’t hold any more. But he still has Kurmis with him to quite an extent and invisible women voters who remember how he brought prohibition and gave bicycles to girls to go to school,” says Ajit Kumar, a local political worker.

“Why did Modi ji ensure that Nitish ji comes on board? His vote percentage is going down in each election but he still gets that roughly 14-percent vote, which is the difference between victory and defeat among the two alliances. Take that away from any one side, and the game is over so far as a victory is concerned.”

He’s quick to underline that Nitish’s absence has ensured that even his presence cannot offer an alliance a clear sweep; there will be contests.

Another man sitting next to him adds, “Yes, till the JD (U) finally fades away and the BJP and RJD become the two poles of Bihar politics.”

In the case of Modi, who is mentioned more than any other leader in casual conversations, some upper-caste voters come across as supporters without conditions and some from deprived castes as labharthi (beneficiary) supporters.

“Hum to usi ko vote denge jo humko 5-kg chaawal muft de raha hai. Aur kise denge? (I will vote for the man who is giving me five kgs of rice free of cost. Who else will I vote for?” says Ram Swarup Sahani, a Nishad from the Bhikanpur village near Muzaffarpur and at the junction of Muzaffarpur and Vaishali Lok Sabha seats.

Sahani sells fish on the roadside just outside his village, the road in front of which connects Muzaffarpur and Sitamarhi. Asked about Mukesh Sahani of the Vikassheel Insan Party (VIP), a small outfit seen as the party of the Nishads or Mallahs that is with the INDIA bloc at present, Sahani shoots back, “To Bhaajpa ka candidate yahaan Nishad nahin hai kya (Is the BJP candidate here not a Nishad)?”

The BJP has fielded Raj Bhushan Chaudhary, a Nishad, from Muzaffarpur, replacing sitting MP Ajay Nishad, who has joined the Congress in a huff. Interestingly, the BJP’s present candidate lost to Ajay Nishad the last time, contesting on a VIP ticket.

The Congress is yet to decide its candidate but Nishads of Bhikanpur seem largely with the BJP where material concerns overlap with nuanced caste combinations.

One late-evening conversation on politics with a group of men at a large tea-and-snacks stall in Muzaffarpur late in the evening veers around Rahul Gandhi — the first mention of the Congress leader after six days in the state.

“I have heard Rahul Gandhi is well-educated. But he is not made for politics. Somehow he is not able to communicate effectively as a politician,” says Amit Kumar, a young man in his early 30s who breaks into one or two sentences in English as he speaks.

Another person at the tea stall chips in, “The Congress needs to think beyond its present leadership to return to power or even be in the contest. Otherwise, it won’t have a face to take on Narendra Modi.”