The uncanny similarities between Bihar & UP polls that make BJP unnerving

Unhappy state unit: Uttar Pradesh has been witnessing several incidents of vehement protests against the leadership’s choice of candidates. In 2015, no one in Bihar unit dared to question the leadership’s decision, but the anger was simmering and it came out through statements by various state leaders. Many party leaders admitted that the ticket distribution in UP did not take into consideration views by state leaders. (Read more here).

Image of the sitting CM: If you ask an average voter in Uttar Pradesh now, his first response would be that the “wave is in favour of Prime Minister Modi.” Then would come the second remark quickly. “But Akhilesh has done good work. Just that there was goonda raj.” Precisely this was the reaction in Bihar too. “Nitish has done good work. But his joining hands with Lalu Prasad could bring in Jungle Raj.” Incidentally, law and order situation prevailing the state was BJP’s focus in both states ahead of polls.

Alliances: Although not as grand as Mahagadbandan in Bihar, the SP and Congress combine has surprised the BJP leadership. In the run up to Bihar polls, BJP leaders had hoped till the last moment that Nitish and Lalu would not be able to come together. To their utter shock, they both came and the Congress also jumped in. Disappointing the BJP leaders and its cadre, Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi – who are visibly comfortable in each other’s company – stitched the coalition, seen as an impossible task till the last moment.

Strategy: If bringing together of non-Yadav EBC votes was the BJP’s primary target in Bihar, its now trying to consolidate non Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits in Uttar Pradesh. It also banked on splitting of Muslim votes in some areas of Bihar and does the same in UP too.

The BJP, which initially planned to highlight surgical strike and demonetisation in Uttar Pradesh, is now banking on consolidation of Hindu votes, so there is much focus on Kairana exodus of Hindus at least in debates. BJP campaign, currently, focus on polarisation and has been trying to revive the Hindutva bandwagon. In Bihar, it was Modi’s development agenda and good governance that had driven their campaign in the initial period, the leaders ended up raking Pakistan towards the end of the campaign. Party’s calculations on caste equations also went wrong. (Read more here)

Hype: On Monday, some opinion polls have projected BJP as the leading party in Uttar Pradesh. In 2015, most of the opinion polls, apparently conducted one month before the polling, had forecast victory for the BJP in Bihar polls. In the national capital, media was abuzz with the stories on how the BJP was preparing its blue prints for victory. Till last week, similar talks had kept the BJP camp upbeat.

Statements: In November first week in 2015, BJP general secretary Kailash Vijayvargeya called actor Shah Rukh Khan “anti-national” and alleged that his atma was in Pakistan. (Read more here) As the campaign in Uttar Pradesh gets heated up, Vijayvargiya earlier this month targeted Shah Rukh Khan over the movie, Raees. Without naming the actor, he called Raees ‘dishonest’ and ‘antinational.’ (Read more here)

Another recent debate that has reminded one of Bihar elections was the quota controversy in the wake of RSS leader Manmohan Vaidya’s remark on reservation. Although it was stated later that he was misquoted, at least some Opposition parties tried to make an issue out of it equating it to RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat’s comments on review of quota in the run up to Bihar elections.

The involvement of professional strategists: While Nitish Kumar-led alliance relied Prashant Kishore and his team for strategy inputs in Bihar, in Uttar Pradesh, besides Kishore, a professional team of Harvard Professor Steve Jarding advises Akhilesh’s coalition.