Opinion With Xi Jinping’s purge, China’s military is weakened
Not since the era of Mao Zedong -- when many senior leaders, including his eventual successor, Deng Xiaoping, and Xi’s father, Xi Zhongxun, were cast out -- has Communist China witnessed a purge which was capped by the investigation of Zhang Youxia for corruption charges
China is a black box. Yet one thing is clear: The Chinese military stands weakened. As vice-chair of the Central Military Commission (CMC), Zhang Youxia is not just China’s second-most powerful figure in its military (after President Xi Jinping). By all accounts, the country’s highest-ranking general is among the few commanders with extensive combat experience (Vietnam, 1978), and his personal ties with Xi run deep. Recent revelations that Zhang, along with fellow CMC member General Liu Zhenli, is under investigation for “suspected serious violations of discipline and law” cap Xi’s three-year purge of the entire top tier of China’s military leadership, ostensibly on corruption charges. Should Zhang and Liu be officially dismissed, the seven-member CMC, which holds supreme authority over the 2-million-strong People’s Liberation Army (PLA), will be left with only two members: Xi and the anti-corruption officer, Zhang Shengmin. Not since the era of Mao Zedong has Communist China witnessed a purge of this magnitude.
When Xi assumed power in 2012, he vowed to eradicate corruption in the PLA by cracking down on both “tigers and flies”. Another round of purges began in 2023 in the PLA Rocket Force, which oversees China’s missile arsenal, with reports emerging that water had been used instead of fuel in some of its missiles. This wave has culminated in the removal of Zhang, who, until now, was one of Xi’s most trusted aides. While corruption has been given as the formal justification, China watchers point to another possible factor: Zhang’s assessment of the PLA’s operational readiness for a Taiwan invasion may not have aligned with Xi’s deadline, which, according to US intelligence, is 2027. On January 1, Xi had doubled down on his Taiwan pledge, reiterating that China’s “reunification” is “unstoppable”. Differences between Zhang and Xi over how to achieve this objective may have sealed the former’s fate.
China is a black box. Yet one thing is clear: The Chinese military stands weakened. The question, now, is where the PLA goes from here. Will the supposed anti-corruption drive strengthen the force, or will continued disruptions erode cohesion and degrade capability? Beyond operational considerations, what is also evident is that any decision regarding escalation across the Taiwan Strait will rely exclusively on Xi and his personal preferences.
Share
