Opinion Assembly election verdicts underscore stirrings in north-east, success of BJP and regional outfits
The rise of the BJP in the Northeast is a testament to the party's drive and will to win.
The Opposition should head to the drawing board to figure out the reasons for its lacklustre performance. The Trinamool Congress had invested heavily in Meghalaya but failed to win over voters. The verdicts in Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya suggest that the BJP’s political narrative has gained more ground in the Northeast since it first made its presence felt with the Assam victory in 2016. The party has won a second consecutive term in Agartala while its pre-poll ally, the NDDP (Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party) is poised to retain office in Kohima. The BJP could not win Meghalaya on its own but is likely to partner the National People’s Party in forming the government in Shillong. In short, all three states are set to have NDA governments. This follows the trend in Assam, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh, where BJP governments have been re-elected since 2019.
The rise of the BJP in the Northeast is a testament to the party’s drive and will to win. It is also a reflection of the failure of other national parties — the Congress and CPM among them — that had dominated the region for years in recognising the changing dynamic in the region. The regional parties, on the other hand, seem to recognise the new stirrings and are keen to align with the BJP — they have historically preferred to partner the dominant party at the Centre. Since 2014, the BJP has tried to build on the ground work done by the RSS in the region by projecting a narrative of nationalism, and schemes and promises of expanding infrastructure. Peace agreements were signed with several groups — for instance, Bodo Accord 2020, Bru-Reang Agreement 2020, National Liberation Front of Tripura Agreement 2019, Karbi Anglong Agreement 2021 — though the Naga peace accord is yet to be concluded despite the Centre and the NSCN-IM agreeing on a framework agreement in 2015. Simultaneously, there has been an expansion of road and rail links in the region. However, the privileging of majoritarian identity politics, particularly in Assam and Tripura, could disrupt this record of administrative successes. The anti-minority politics and propaganda that appears to have found state sanction in Assam and the attempt to stoke fear among Bengali speakers in Tripura over the rise of Tipra Motha, an outfit that has focused on the rights of “indigenous communities”, are deeply disturbing and raise legitimate fears of the undermining of social cohesion. The Northeast is a crucible of multiple identities and shares a long and sensitive boundary with Bangladesh, Myanmar and China. Both development and social peace are key to building the region as the centrepiece of India’s Act East strategy.
The Opposition should head to the drawing board to figure out the reasons for its lacklustre performance. The Trinamool Congress had invested heavily in Meghalaya but failed to win over voters. The Tripura verdict is a lesson for the Congress and CPM that voters are unlikely to support alliances of convenience. The success of the Tipra Motha in Tripura and the Voice of the People’s Party in Meghalaya suggests that the electorate is willing to give a chance to new narratives and fresh faces.
This editorial first appeared in the print edition on March 3, 2023, under the title, ‘North-East Spread’
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