SCO meet highlighted flux in Eurasia; Delhi must help push new connectivity initiatives with region
Although the SCO has become more attractive to a large number of regional countries that want to be associated with it, there are new lines of fracture emerging within it.
Although the SCO has become more attractive to a large number of regional countries that want to be associated with it, there are new lines of fracture emerging within it. The summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Samarkand last week concluded with India taking over chair of the regional forum. The mood, unsurprisingly, was sombre amidst the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which completes its seventh month this week. The impact of the invasion has been universal, but the consequences for the Eurasian region are likely to be the most significant and lasting. Managing the affairs of the SCO that has been long dominated by Russia and China would have been challenging for India at any time, but the current turbulence will make it even harder for Delhi. At the same time, the churn in Eurasia offers India new opportunities to raise its current limiting standing in the region.
Much of the international interest in the summit has been focused on China’s worries about the Russian invasion of Ukraine that is going badly. China’s leader Xi Jinping, who had announced an “alliance without limits” with the Russian president Vladimir Putin just weeks before the invasion continues to offer political and diplomatic support to Kremlin but has avoided significant military assistance. In his meeting with Xi, Putin acknowledged China’s interests and concerns and offered to address them. Putin took a similar tack in his meeting with the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Like Beijing, Delhi too is concerned about a close partner like Russia stuck in a war that it can’t win and a costly confrontation with the West that it has brought upon itself. India, which has been reluctant to openly criticise Russia’s brazen violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty, has begun to recalibrate its position. Modi has told Putin the importance of dialogue and diplomacy in resolving the crisis in Ukraine.
Although the SCO has become more attractive to a large number of regional countries that want to be associated with it, there are new lines of fracture emerging within it. For one, there is growing unease among the member states at the continuing conflict in Ukraine. Many states, especially the former republics of the Soviet Union, are deeply anxious about Russia doing an “Ukraine” on them. If Russia can try and undo the independence of Ukraine, it could do much the same with other former Soviet republics in Central Asia. Unsurprisingly, these republics are looking to establish other partnerships — especially with China and Turkey, and to a lesser extent with India — to enhance their strategic autonomy from Putin’s Russia and safeguard their sovereignty and territorial integrity. India’s ability to contribute to peace and prosperity in Eurasia are entirely dependent on overcoming the lack of direct connectivity to the region. Modi then rightly focused on the question of connectivity with Central Asia. India must devote full attention in the coming year of its SCO presidency to push through new connectivity initiatives with Eurasia. The entry of Iran into the forum opens the door for greater connectivity; so does the mobilisation of regional support for transit to Central Asia through Pakistan and Afghanistan.
This editorial first appeared in the print edition on September 19, 2022, under the title, ‘Samarkand Churn’
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