Opinion Iran’s street is speaking, do not hijack the voice

There was always a disturbing inevitability to the ongoing protests in Iran. Now in its second week, the unrest driven by a cost-of-living and currency crisis is spreading from the capital and bazaars to towns. Despite early assurances that the government would engage with the public, a brutal crackdown has followed. The internet has been snapped, and given the state’s tight control over mass media, the extent of casualties is difficult to assess. Even so, reports from a US-based human rights monitor indicate that at least 538 people have been killed in the repression unleashed by an autocratic regime that treats dissent as an existential threat. The scenes are familiar: Hundreds died during the 2022 protests over Mahsa Amini’s killing and the 2019 unrest triggered by fuel prices. The Ali Khamenei regime’s default response is to resort to force and denounce protesters as enemies of the Islamic Revolution. Even the elected reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has evaded accountability, blaming Israel and the US. But given the scale and intensity of the current movement, the usual defence of “foreign agents” is unlikely to give cover to Khamenei.

Even then, US President Donald Trump’s threats — perhaps emboldened by his recent operation in Venezuela — that he will “shoot at Iran” if protesters are attacked have added another layer of complexity. History offers enough cautionary examples. The Iranian Revolution, nearly half a century ago, was propelled by an anti-US movement that toppled the Washington-backed Pahlavi dynasty. Trump may be right in saying that the protesters need support. But any US intervention short of a total overthrow would only entrench the Khamenei regime and reinforce its long-standing narrative that the unrest is the product of a foreign conspiracy. Any US military action could thus undermine a movement already devoid of leadership. Foreign intervention could hand the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a ready pretext for more repression. Trump should, therefore, resist the temptation to exploit the grievances of the Iranian people for his own ends — whatever they may be. A destabilised Iran would please few more than Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu.

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Tehran has warned that it will retaliate if attacked by the US. This comes less than a year after Iran’s 12-day war with Israel last June, during which US forces bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. That exchange may have degraded Iran’s military capabilities, but it did little to weaken the state’s grip on power. Regime change remains unlikely, even though the protesters show no sign of backing down. Unless the Khamenei regime calls off the crackdown, the deadlock will only deepen. It must listen to voices of sanity.